Good morning, all. We are expecting strong to severe thunderstorms today, with all hazards (large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes) possible. Latest runs of the HRRR show that between mid-afternoon and early evening will be our best opportunity for menacing storms to race across Middle Tennessee:
1 PM to 5 PM Monday.
Obviously, this risk will occur during school dismissal and the evening commute.
Hail, and/or damaging thunderstorm winds, and/or tornadoes.
In the order of likelihood, assuming we get a storm: (1) Hail–most likely. (2) Damaging thunderstorm winds–next most likely. (3) Tornadoes–third most likely. Hail is not that much more likely than tornadoes, though. Consult the below chart from NWS-Nashville:
Quickly, about today, we’re not expecting rain. We may see light rain show up late tonight. Here’s the HRRR model’s prediction thru 11 PM:
The Storm Prediction Center issues outlooks for severe weather. Six categories for severe weather are used, beginning at general, non-severe thunderstorms, and running all the way from 1 through 5, with five being the “worst.”
GOES East Loop This Morning
*Geek out moment*: Notice that band of clouds over Northwest Tennessee? That’s out ahead of a cold front! This front will slide through the area today bringing cooler (but not terribly cold) air for tomorrow. As long as we get intermittent sunshine today, temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 70s.
The HRRR model for the mid afternoon today. It is one of the more spatially-accurate models. This shows where the low pressure center is not very organized and most of the rain will miss the Nashville area.
The early afternoon hours are expected to be breezy with winds out of the WSW until the winds shift into the SE on Friday when the rain begins to arrive.
Current rain ETA is around 7 PM Friday night. At least that’s what the NAM3 model thinks:
Good morning Nashville!
The sun will continue to shine on Williamson and Davidson Counties today! We are looking at a high of around 50. Winds will be around 5-10 mph.
Tomorrow, though, is going to feel awesome outside! The sun will continue as highs rise into the mid to upper 60s. Enjoy these two days, because, by the time Friday rolls around, rain will return to the forecast.
The cold temperatures will hang around for a day or two more as a high pressure system funnels cold, north air down into the area. Today there will be some clouds, but the sunshine breaking through will allow for very slight warming, as the high won’t reach 50 degrees. Keep a warm sweater nearby because as the sun sets, the temperatures will fall to below freezing!
Good morning Nashville! Alex Forbes here this morning and I am thrilled to say I will be joining NashSevereWx on a regular basis! Now to today’s forecast…
Did you catch a snow shower this morning? We didn’t get much in Williamson and Davidson Counties, a dusting at best, because our temperatures stayed above freezing. However the further north you go, and out on the plateau, you will find higher snow amounts and a few minor travel impacts. The snow is done, giving way to a partly cloudy, and blustery, 48° day. Winds could reach 15-20 mph.
Williamson County is excluded from the Advisory.
So, I’m going to break this down by county.
The Winter Weather Advisory is for the northernmost counties in Middle Tennessee. Davidson County is included as part of the second row of those northernmost counties.
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