Sunny & Warm Today; Rain Begins Late Tonight - Goes Until Tuesday

EDITORS NOTE: This is Marti’s last blog for us as an intern. She has really grown as a writer and we are very proud of her work. Best of luck, Marti!

If you enjoy warm and sunny, then soak up the sunshine while we’ve got it! Starting tonight we’ll be rain-soaked until Tuesday.

Remnant high pressure is controlling our weather today, bringing us plenty of sunshine! We’ll warm into the upper 70°s by this afternoon.

Rain moves in late Saturday (Tonight), Continuing Until Tuesday

We’re entering a busy weather pattern for the next few days, meaning there will be plenty of rainfall for the coming days. Sunday through Tuesday, we’re expecting 2-3″ of rainfall here in Nashville. As of now, there is no mention of flooding concerns. This is likely because the rain will fall over several days. More on this, below!

Saturday Night Rain Chances

Sunny, partly cloudy skies will give way to thicker clouds after sundown. This is ahead of our first line of rain.

NAM 3km thinks we’ll be quiet tonight, with first sprinkles of rain beginning around midnight.

HRRR aggrees; clear, quiet conditions with rain approaching Nashville beginning about midnight.

So, if you plan to go out and enjoy the sun today, go for it! Temps will fall to the low 70°s by sundown and will remain mild through the evening.

Sunday Storms Possible

Storms are possible all across the southeast tomorrow, including us! Storm Prediction Center has placed Nashville within the Slight Risk (2 out of 5) of severe storms for Sunday.

This means there is a 15% chance of a severe storm within 25 miles of you.

Picking up the NAM 3km where we left it earlier, we can see what it thinks will happen Sunday. Overnight rain looks to clear out quickly, giving us a rain break by sunrise. Expect a daytime high in the low 80°s.

Then, as rain and storms begin to form over Arkansas and move east, they quickly get pushed north. With a lack of rain during the daytime heating hours, we’ll start building energy in Middle Tennessee. If any storms do pass through, our atmosphere will be unstable and storms could easily become severe.

Now, this is only what the NAM thinks the radar could look like. It is model guidance, not gospel. The line of storms could shift east instead of north, so keep your umbrella and radar app handy all day.

Rain Continues Monday

Last day of widespread rain is Monday!

Looks like Monday will have on-and-off rain all day long. A few thunderstorms could be in the mix, but they shouldn’t reach severe potential.

Finally a Break on Tuesday

A few early morning sprinkles are possible, then clouds should break up. I know I’m already looking forward to sunlight after all the rain we’ll have!

Well, everyone, this is Marti Calhoun signing out. It’s been a great privilege and blessing to work side-by-side with this incredible group of guys! This past year has taught me so much about forecasting and weather communication, and for this I’m very thankful. Thanks for the memories and the fun!

Rain Through the Afternoon & Night; Friday Thru Saturday Afternoon Look Dry

On and Off Rain Today

Our dry, sunny skies have moved on to the east, pushed out by clouds and rain. The NAM 3km below shows the widespread rain that’s taken over the southeast.

Even with rain and clouds, our high temp will warm into the low 70°s by the afternoon.


We’ll have on and off rain starting this afternoon and evening. Our air is really dry as of 11:00 am, so it will take a few hours for rain to really be able to reach the ground.

A few storms could roll through in the late-overnight ours. Not expecting anything severe, maybe a few rolls of thunder. The low tonight should be around 56°.

Start to your weekend looks nice!

Rest of the rain will fizzle out Friday morning. Our high temp will warm into the low 70s, and after sundown we’ll slowly cool into the mid 50s with skies clearing.

Friday night is the sweet spot for outdoor activities, as rain will likely return Saturday evening.

For Saturday, the story remains much the same, just warmer by a few degrees. Partly cloudy skies and a south wind will will help to push high temps into the upper 70°s.

We could see rain return for Saturday evening. NAM (above) shows a few storms sweeping through Middle Tennessee. If you’ve got outdoor plans Saturday afternoon, keep in mind rain could arrive just in time for sundown.

Sunday – Tuesday

A large upper-level trough will setup to our west and slowly move east. It’s going to bring rain chances into the forecast for Sunday through Tuesday, but as of right now we’re too far out for specifics.

As for now, break out that umbrella and keep it close for the coming days!

Sunny & Clear Today! Warming Trend Continues; Rain/(A Few)Storms Thursday; Scattered Showers This Weekend

Warming trend continues today with clear, sunny skies. High temp in the mid 60°s. Weak high pressure is building in, cutting off any chance of rain this afternoon/evening.

Wednesday – Several Degrees Warmer

High pressure will be in control most of Wednesday. No rain expected; sunny in the morning, clouds taking over in the evening.

As a low pressure system organizes in the southern Plains on Wednesday morning, a warm front will lift through the Midstate. This will usher in warmer temps – afternoon high in the low 70°s – and thick, overnight cloud cover.

Thursday Storms (?)

A line of heavy rain with some storms possibly mixed in should push through Thursday afternoon/evening. NAM3 model is below. Severe weather is unlikely Thursday evening, but a few storms are possible.

Rainy Weekend Ahead

Upper-level weather pattern remains warm and rainy after Thursday. A few showers could linger around early Friday with high temps warming into the mid 70°s.

Friday evening should be free of rain, but pack an umbrella if you plan to head out this weekend.

Scattered showers will hang around for Saturday and Sunday, with each day seeing temps in the upper 70°s. Rain most likely Saturday night into Sunday. Early Saturday may be OK.

We’re watching for the possibility of rain/storms in the early part of next week. As we receive updates, we’ll pass those along here and on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Rain and Some Storms Today; Cold and Dry Sunday; Dry and Warm for Next Work Week

Today, a low pressure center will pass to our north, bringing showers and some storms this afternoon/evening and then cold weather tomorrow.

We’ve got a warm, south wind this morning bringing warm, moist air up and into the Nashville area. This is the energy storms will use later this afternoon. SPC has placed us within a Slight (2 out of 5) Area for Severe weather today.

If you’re heading out this afternoon, stay weather aware with timing the storm impacts outlined below. Have a radar handy and a place to receive weather alerts.

As for timing:

The HRRR thinks we’ll see light showers about 3PM, with a stronger line of storms arriving at 6PM, and then showers until midnight.

The NAM has a faster outcome in mind. Rain arriving about 2PM, storms arriving at 6PM, with clearing before midnight.

The Impacts:

As we continue to warm up in the afternoon, we’ll be charging up the atmosphere. Our mid-levels will become saturated, but at the same time, the dry air monster will be setting up right above the surface. When the rain begins to fall through the dry air layer, it can pull down fast winds, leading to strong straight line winds.

Some storms could be strong enough for hail for small hail, but it’s not expected. The bulk of storms with the greater possibility of hail will be to our southwest, as seen below:

We have strong turning of the winds, and plenty of moisture in the low/mid levels of the atmosphere. Because of this, some storms could have rotation. Still, the greatest threat of this remains to our southwest, but we’re included the area of 2% chance to see a weak spin-up.

Sunday – After the Front

I hope you haven’t packed away your winter coats just yet! Cold front pushes through overnight, greeting us Sunday morning with temps in the low 30°s. Daytime high will struggle to push into the low 50°s.

It’ll be chilly, but beautiful weather as high pressure sets in.

Monday & Tuesday

Beginning portions of this week will be beautiful as high pressure continues to control our weather. Morning low temps will start in the upper 30°s on Monday, with daytime high in the upper 50°s.

Tuesday is much of the same story. Morning low in the low 40°s, with a high in the low 60°s.

Sunny & Breezy Today; On and Off Rain Friday; Cold Front Saturday; Cool Start to Next Week!

Today’s our last day of dry, sunny skies until Sunday. It’ll be breezy today, with a few gusts of 10-20 mph possible in the afternoon.

Afternoon high will try to reach mid 70°s, but some overhead clouds could keep us a degree or two cooler this afternoon.

As for rain, we’ll remain dry here in Nashville today and tonight. Tonight, we’ll drop down to around 50°.

On and Off Rain for Friday

Clouds invade ahead of rain, keeping high temp in the low 70°s.

Rain will move in early Friday morning ahead of cold front on Saturday. We should see periods of on-again, off-again light rainfall throughout the day. Nothing severe expected.

Saturday Storms (Mostly to our West)

Cold front will push through Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed western portions of Davidson and Williamson Counties in the Marginal (1 out of 5) Area for severe weather. [Editor’s note: This means there is only a 5% chance of seeing some type of severe weather within 25 miles of you within the dark green shading. The setup is “meh.”]

A few strong storms could go up on Saturday afternoon accompanied by strong winds. Those should remain far to our west. Over Nashville, we lack the setup needed for severe weather.

The NAM below shows the line of storms developing to our west in the morning. The rain will quickly push through in the evening and should be clear by sunrise Sunday morning.

Greater rain totals should remain to our north with the heaviest showers. This swift-moving line could bring 0.25″ – 0.5″ to Nashville.

Cold Front Invades Overnight

After the rain is gone, cool, dry air will spill down into Middle Tennessee overnight. Sunday’s high will warm into the mid 50°s – a far cry from the Springtime temps we’ve had these last few days!

Morning low on Monday will be flirting in the low 30°s, and some light frost could be expected in low lying areas. Other than cooler temps, it should be a chilly, but dry start to the next work week!

Awesome Week Ahead! Warm and Dry Through Friday Afternoon; Rain Returns Late Friday/Saturday

Cooler weather paid us a visit this morning. Temps were in the upper 30s when we walked out the door. We will remain on the cooler side today, high temps will hover in the mid 50°s.

Why the return of cooler weather? A high pressure bubble has settled right over the Ohio River Valley. Clockwise winds around the high are pushing cooler temps from the northeast down into Middle Tennessee.

High pressure will keep us dry today and through the remainder of the work week.


We’ll be on a week-long rollercoaster of temperatures:

  • Wednesday morning low temp will drop into the low 30°s, warming into the mid 60°s by afternoon. Winds will turn to the south in the afternoon, increasing temps by a few degrees Thursday and Friday.
  • Thursday morning low in the mid 40°s, warming to the mid 70°s. Few clouds.
  • Friday morning low in the upper 40°s, warming to the low/mid 70°s. Clouds move in ahead of a cold front on Saturday.

Late-Friday Drizzles and Saturday Rain Chances

We’ll end March on a cold and wet note. A surface front will develop to our west on Friday before swinging down through on Saturday. The EURO illustrates this below.

Friday Night

As the front nears Tennessee, we could see a few very light showers spread over Nashville. Drizzly rain could last throughout the night.


Rain will increase from west to east, arriving in Davidson and Wilco by early afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out, but we won’t have the right ingredients in place for widespread severe weather.

EURO says we’ll get about an inch of rain from Friday to Sunday morning, but NWS Nashville says about a quarter of an inch. What we’ll be waiting to see is where this line of heavier rain sets up. It could shift west or east from where it’s drawn right now.

We’re several days away from this event, so expect the forecast to adjust from day to day. Stay clicked here for further updates throughout the week!

Beautiful End to the Week; Rain Returns Sunday & Monday

Earlier sprinkles moved E, and we enjoyed some good sunshine today! The rest of the week will be dry and pleasant!

Today, a cold front draped across western Tennessee brought us breezy conditions. This weak front will slowly work its way eastward, passing Nashville tonight into Friday.

We made it up to 61° this afternoon, but we’ll cool down to 37° tonight.

Beautiful Weather for Friday and Saturday

Thanks to the cold front, northwestern flow returns to the Midstate. This means dry skies and pleasant temps. High temp should reach into the low/mid 60°s. Breezy winds in the early afternoon Friday.

Expect similar conditions on Saturday as high pressure will settle in over Tennessee. High temps in the low 60°s with a calm wind.

Enjoy the beautiful weather on Friday and Saturday because rain returns Sunday.

Light Rain Sunday, Possible Storms Monday

On Sunday, a weak upper level trough will dip southward out of the Great Plains. This will usher the high pressure further to our east and shift our winds to the south.

The afternoon/evening will likely see periods of light rainfall. About a tenth of an inch is expected. Heavier rainfall and some storms are slated to arrive Monday.


This upper level disturbance will push through Middle Tennessee on Monday. We’ll likely see a few rounds of rain throughout the day: morning should be steady rain, with heavier rainfall and thunderstorms Monday evening.

Heavier rainfall means we could get 0.25″ to 0.5″ of rain, as the Weather Prediction Center’s graphic shows below.

We’re a while out from Sunday and Monday, so specifics are up in the air. As we draw closer to the weekend, we will keep you updated here and on Twitter, so stay tuned!

Clear Today; Rainy First Night of Spring; Beautiful Start to the Weekend

Another day of beautiful, Spring-like Winter-time weather is here! Afternoon temps will warm into the upper 50°s.

With very few clouds and a light breeze, it’s going to be a pleasant day to be outdoors!

Clouds and Rain on the First Day of Spring (Wednesday)

We’ll start Wednesday with scattered clouds. Throughout the day, temps will warm to the low 60°s as clouds continue to invade, becoming overcast by sunset.

Light rain will spread over us from west to east, beginning late Wednesday evening, continuing into Thursday morning. The NAM3 model below shows what we should see through midnight Wednesday.

These showers will be light, with most of us seeing 0.2″ or less of rain. Rain totals should have very little impact on rivers, which will continue to recede.

Rain Ends Thursday Morning

Light showers should come to an end late Thursday morning. A few drizzles are possible through the early afternoon before clouds begin breaking up late afternoon/early evening. The NAM3 model below picks back up at midnight Wednesday showing the remainder of Thursday.

Dry Friday and Saturday

Get ready for a beautiful start to the weekend!

Friday and Saturday should be dry and warm! Temps in the mid/upper 60°s for both days.

We’re watching a possible weather-maker late Sunday/early Monday. We’re still a few days out from anything reliable, but it’s something to keep an eye on. Best guess is rain chances arrive Sunday night then continue into Monday. Some storms possible late Monday, but nothing of any concern right now. NWS-Nashville noted:

Current thinking is for about 1-1.5 inches of rain with this system, so it shouldn`t have too much impact on area rivers.

In the meantime, enjoy the late-week dry weather!

Rain is Ending, Tornado/Storm Threat Has Moved East; Sunny Start to the Week!

The rain is over. Storms have moved on to our east, allowing for our the tornado watch including Davidson and Williamson counties to be cancelled. We remain under a wind advisory until 9PM.

Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph, are expected for another hour or so, becoming calm by midnight.

Sunday Sunshine

If you like springtime temps, you’ll like this news!

We aren’t expected much of a cool-off from this weak cold front. We’ll wake up to temps in the low 50°s with an afternoon high in the low 60°s. Sunny skies will be the theme, allowing for some of tonight’s rain to evaporate.

Dry Weather is Coming!

We start the week with a few days of much-needed dry weather. Daily high temps hovering in the upper 50°s/low 60°s.

Rain Could Return Midweek

Models are hinting at the possibility of more rain Wednesday night or Thursday morning. We’re quite a few days out, so uncertainty remains. We’ll bring you more information in the coming days, but for now enjoy the dry weather!

Tornado Watch until 9 PM. Tornado, Damaging Wind, Hail Probabilities, ETAs.

Severe weather requires the right ingredients coming together at the right time. Severe weather ingredients may come together this afternoon and/or early tonight.


Two waves of storms, both with severe potential.

Wave #1: Early/Mid Afternoon.

This wave ended. Frequent lightning and heavy rain. There is a “cap” in place that kept storms from forming near the surface. This limited their intensity.

General thunderstorms expected this afternoon.

Wave #2: Early Evening

Below is HRRR model showing strong storms coming through here around 6 PM.

This second wave has potential to be more organized.

The main uncertainty is whether we will become unstable enough for severe storms to turn into bad damaging wind and tornado producers.

The “Significant Tornado Parameter” helps forecasters identify atmospheric conditions able to produce rotating storms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and possibly tornadoes. STP tries to answer the question: “will all the storm ingredients be there?” STP isn’t always right, but it’s a useful tool.

This morning, STP values were predicted to be high before Wave #2 arrives …

Recent HRRR model runs show STP to drop off north of I-40, but it’s still pretty decent south of I-40.

Thus the concern is greater the further south you are.

But first, what exactly are we talking about with these waves?

Tornadoes, Damaging Winds, Hail, Flooding?

All possible, but some are more likely than others. More likely in Wave #2 than Wave #1.

Damaging Winds

Of all hazards this is most likely.

First, for non-thunderstorm winds, there is a Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM. Winds sustained 20-30 MPH, gusting to 45 MPH.

Thunderstorm winds are “severe” when they reach or exceed 58 MPH. Probability of a severe thunderstorm wind event within 25 miles of you is 15%:

Tornado: Tornado Watch Effective Until 9 PM Tonight

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you is 5%:

Note the shift in SPC’s outlook area, it’s a bit further south vs where it was this morning, suggesting concern instability won’t make it far enough north. However, it’s close enough to warrant inclusion for everyone in Nashville and Williamson County in the Tornado Watch.

Here are the watch details:

The watch simply means we have the ingredients in place to generate storms that could produce strong winds, tornadoes and some hail. Storms have been limited so far today due to the cap, but the second line this evening could break through and reach severe limits.


Probability of 1″ hail within 25 miles of you is 5%:


Not really concerned. Expecting 1″ to 1.5″ total. I mention flooding because the ground is saturated from Friday’s rain. A few storms may “train” over an area, therefore brief, localized ponding and “streets that usually flood due to drainage problems” may have temporary issues.

To get flash flooding we’d need about 1.6″ to fall in an hour and there’s no reason to think that much will fall that fast.

As for river flooding obviously the Cumberland and Stones Rivers are up but because dams have been releasing water all week, but the system should be able to reasonably tolerate this event.

Probabilities and Uncertainties

Development of severe thunderstorms (mainly with Wave #2) will depend on how warm and unstable the atmosphere becomes after the first batch of showers and storms.


We monitor atmospheric instability mainly by watching the dewpoints (currently we’re at 54° and rising). Low 60°s will feed storms.We also watch the SBCAPE and MLCAPE numbers on the SPC’s mesoanalysis site. Anything around 500 j/kg will fuel storms.

If instability is modest, winds aloft (which will be s-c-r-e-a-m-i-n-g fast) will tear apart any building storm. But if instability is high enough, winds will rotate the storms, not tear them apart.

Often, Wave #1 “uses up” all the instability, leaving nothing behind for Wave #2. This is what we hope happens tonight. The Euro model thinks that’s exactly what will happen, but the HRRR disagrees, asking which to believe is like choosing which ear you prefer (for me it’s the left, right one doesn’t really work great, but I digress).

So, now, we wait. We watch the radar. Models are great, but they’re often wrong. Radar and satellite tells us exactly what’s happening.

We’ll be on Twitter all day.

What To Do

First, mobile and manufactured home residents — if you wait for a warning to be issued you probably won’t have enough time to shelter. Mobile and manufactured homes, also cars, are unsafe in tornadoes and most severe wind events. Plan ahead.

Second, if you’re new to severe weather, or you’re like 95% of college graduates confused by “Watch” vs “Warning,” or you’re just wondering how to prepare or respond to a tornado warning, we made this page for you.

Expect forecast revisions. Forecast updates, ETAs, storm hazards, and storm warnings will not be published to this blog because it’s too slow. Follow our Twitter page. We’ll also be on Periscope (there will be a link to that on Twitter) if there is a warning. Turn on your favorite local TV meteorologist.

Sunday & Beyond

I’ll leave this quote from NWS-Nashville’s morning forecast discussion here:

The actual cold front will push through Middle Tennessee later tonight, although temperatures will only fall back to seasonal readings once the post-frontal air mass settles in. The next active system comes through Wednesday night and Thursday, and it is now looking more like a severe event than a multi-day heavy rain event. Therefore, the new 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast is going to show less than previously thought, which is welcome news given our continued elevated rivers.