Nashville Severe Weather

ETAs

No specific reliable ETAs due to model uncertainty and storm setup. But we have an idea: around 1 PM to 5 PM.

• Rain and storm activity should “increase substantially late this morning, peaking mid to late afternoon.” (NWS-Nashville).
• The HRRR model expects thunderstorms to develop to our NW just after lunch then swing through Nashville and Williamson County between 1 and 5 PM:

• The NAM3 model predicts storms will develop later in the afternoon, creating a small amount of forecast uncertainty.
• New weather balloon data is not yet in. That data provides a temperature at which storms should form. Yesterday that temperature was in the mid-80°s, which we reached mid-afternoon. I bet that happens again today. Today before 8 AM temps were low 70°s and rising. We should hit mid 80°s around lunchtime, so I am leaning toward the 1 PM to 5 PM ETA for all storm activity.
• NWS-Nashville is confident we will see some rain and storms so factor that into your plans. They think rain is likely around 1 PM and very likely around 4 PM for Nashville and Williamson County.

Flexible plans recommended in case that changes. If you don’t think it may change, welcome to Nashville! You must be new. read more

Saturday

Happy weekend everyone!

We start off our Saturday mostly sunny through the morning and early afternoon, until storms begin to develop, especially along/west of I-65. The latest HRRR model has these storms popping up sometime after 1PM:  read more

Friday

Happy Friday!

Editor’s Note:

The end of our work week is going to be a wet one for some of us. Isolated to scattered pop-up storms will be possible this afternoon, mainly after 3PM. Not all of us will see rain, but a few of us could potentially see a couple downpours by the time the evening rolls around. read more

Thursday

A pretty typical summer afternoon ahead for us today in Middle Tennessee. We’ll start off the first day of August with near normal temperatures, capping at 89° for the high, and of course, the humidity will play a factor in how it actually feels outside. Dewpoint values will be upper 60s as we progress into the afternoon. read more

Wednesday

Most of the rain will push east today, though we could still see some scattered showers.

Here’s the HRRR model:

It’s hard to say when and where these will exactly pop up, and not everyone will be caught underneath one. We shouldn’t have any rain-outs, frog stranglers, or severe weather. read more

Tuesday

A weak cold front is coming in from the west. It may spark a few showers and storms. Rainfall totals won’t be much. It’s possible you won’t get any rain at all.

The latest HRRR model has showers developing 2 PM – 4 PM, but not everyone gets one: read more

Monday

Typical late July.

Low 90°s high, with clouds building into the night.

A few late night showers may be included in the clouds moving in.

Why? A weak cold front is heading our way.

Rain chances will increase as we move into Tuesday. read more

Sunday

Scattered showers are possible across the region today.

Here’s the HRRR model:

The best timing for these pop-ups will be the afternoon and early evening hours.

It’s hard to say exactly where these will form, so keep an umbrella on hand just in case. read more

Saturday

We’ve got another sunny afternoon ahead of us today! As this high pressure continues to move off to the Southwest, we’ll be in great shape to reach the low 90s this afternoon. A bit warmer than earlier this week, but near normal for this time of year. Humidity increases a bit as well along with the temperatures, into the mid 60s, or at the top of the “sticky” section of our dewpoint perception chart: read more

Friday

The high pressure system over the Ohio Valley that brought beautiful and pleasant weather to the Mid State region this week will slowly weaken allowing for warm, moist air to return on southerly winds. This will send our high temperature to 89 degrees today. Dew points will slowly climb into the mid 60s which will make it feel a tad stickier than it has all week. read more