Today (Tuesday)
Temperatures will be topping out at 87° for the high, remaining mostly sunny.
No rain today. Any precipitation should stay south this afternoon.
Dewpoint values will be a bit lower as well, so it won’t feel as sticky out there.
Sunny Summer Days and Spotty Summer Storms For This Week
Active Weather Pattern is Leaving…Finally
Are We Clearing Out?
We think so.
Morning rain is sliding out of our area. It used up available storm energy.
Those east of Nashville may see strong/severe storms today, but for us additional afternoon rain and storms appear unlikely. We lack storm fuel and forcing needed for another event.
Possible Pop-Up Showers Today, Afternoon Rain Possible Monday, then Finally Some Clearing
Sunday
NWS-Nashville says:
“During the afternoon, short-range guidance depicts a few hit and miss thunderstorms, but nothing terribly organized. Instability, lapse rates, and moisture will be in place for thunderstorm development…however, low shear and weak mid-level ridging will work to keep storm coverage to a minimum. Any storms that do get going have the potential of becoming strong/severe with damaging winds and hail being the main concerns.”
Just Get It Over With Already! Honestly, The Only Thing Worse Than Writing This Is The Thought Of You Reading It.
I’d rather have a storm on radar than a storm on a model. I just would.
Seeing storms on models is like being a skinny 8th grade kid wondering if I’m going to get a date to the 8th grade dance. (Spoiler: it did not go well, many years ago).
Quick Look At Our Weekend
SATURDAY MORNING STORMS
More storms
are incoming this morning; we’re live tweeting them again.
Damaging winds are the main concern. Storms should intensify at least a little as they cross into Tennessee from Kentucky.
Watch Cancelled, So Many Storm Reports, Best Advice, Worst Joke, Sirens, Derechos, More Storms Saturday?
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED
At 853 PM.
No more severe weather expected tonight.
Just some light rain.
STORM REPORTS
My fave photo of the night:
@NashSevereWx @NWSNashville @FOXNashville @WKRN pic.twitter.com/CgtEwG5Bq9
— David Howe (@DHdeeder) June 22, 2019
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Details, ETAs, Hazards, Probabilities, Vulnerable Persons. Second Line Saturday Morning?
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
A Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms.
A storm system is expected tonight, coming in a large line down I-24 from Kentucky.
Do not get hung up on Williamson County’s exclusion. A second Watch may be needed, to include Will Co., if storms stay severe tonight as they cross the KY/TN line.
Storms Possible this Evening into Saturday; A Lot of Uncertainty in the Forecast
There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast from today into the weekend. I will do my best to convey that information, so bear with me. This is a difficult and lengthy forecast.
Editor’s Note: Yes, it’s a difficult forecast. Simple crap app clipart doesn’t do it justice.
Next Storm Event: a MCS Friday (early? late? Saturday morning?)
That was quite the evening of severe storms last night.
North Nashville storms before 8 AM should drift north and out of our area.
THURSDAY – FRIDAY MORNING
Later this morning,
further development in west TN and persistent [model] guidance suggests that more scattered [storms] will continue from mid morning through the early afternoon…especially for locations along and north of I-40. This will be monitored over the next few hours, but the severe threat should generally remain low. . . . Most of us will dry out by mid afternoon and early evening, remaining dry through the first half of Friday. (NWS-Nashville).
Two Rounds of Rain and Storms Later Today/Tonight/Overnight (with Severe Potential), Showers & Swamp Heat to Follow Through the Weekend
Severe Weather Potential Wednesday
Today we will see some rain and thunderstorms, some possibly severe.
Looks like two rounds.
The first round, early evening, but we aren’t sure about that.
The second round, later tonight, we’re more confident this will happen.
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