Record-Breaking Heat to Last Through Thursday; Turning Cooler This Weekend

[Editor’s note: Notice their wording. They didn’t say it breaks the record for October 1. They said it breaks the record for October….all of it.]

Record-breaking temperatures through Thursday

Afternoon high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s through Thursday! Heat index values near 100 degrees. No rain in sight.  Fire danger increases.

Here are some heat safety tips from the National Weather Service:

Relief is on the way for the weekend!

A cold front will drop south through the Tennessee Valley Thursday night into Friday bringing a much-needed cooldown. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s with dew points gradually falling back into the 50s. Rain stays away for the most part but could make a return Sunday. Here is the latest from the National Weather Service:

timing/strength differences noted between the latest ECMWF/GFS solutions as it comes to developing convection late Sat night thru Mon. A stronger cold front will position itself across the cntrl MS River Valley by daybreak Sun and push slightly southeastward bisecting mid state region SW to NE by daybreak on Mon.

Here is the GFS model which shows some showers making it into the region late Saturday:

Given that this is still 4-5 days away, our confidence in a certain model is low, so be sure to follow along through the week as the details become clearer.

Stay cool and check back for updates!

When is Fall coming? Ummmm, Well, …..

Today should be the nicest day of the week.

Humidity left. Dew points in the mid 40°s — fall quality! — but temps remain above normal for late September with mid/upper 80°s.

Rain chances return Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Wednesday will be nice.

Showers arrive maybe Wednesday night but probably Thursday morning as another cold front moves into the region.

ETAs are iffy.

The NAM3 model shows a showers in late Wednesday afternoon and evening with the main rain event arriving overnight into Thursday morning:

The Euro model thinks this is not a Wednesday thing; instead, it’s a Thursday morning event. Around 0.3.”

If we got 0.3″, we’d avoid the driest September on record. Currently the Official BNA Rain Can has 0.02″ this month. The record is 0.13″ from 1903.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Thursday with a high around 84. Dew points will be on the rise, however, and it will feel a touch stickier out there.

Heat and summersmite humidity return for the weekend as Fall is nowhere to be found.

A Bermuda high-pressure system will build into the Southeast US and switch us on to BROIL. Low/Mid-90°s temps with dew points in the low to mid-60s!

When is Fall coming? Ummmm, well, …..

Above normal temps dominate medium range Euro ensemble model runs, the latest one below:

Still think we will challenge the second hottest September on record with those mid 90°s temps to round out September. If not we will easily make the top 5.

Usually when that hot and humid, pop up rain showers bubble up in the heat of the day. Instead, high pressure looks so strong that we may not get any additional appreciable rainfall. Total forecast rain now through October 9 per the Euro ensemble model is 0.6.”

Fall . . .


Heatwave To Continue Through Friday; Cooler Over The Weekend

Tuesday Afternoon

Very hot conditions will persist across the area this afternoon with temperatures staying around 96 degrees. Dew points are in the mid 60’s which is making it feel a tad sticky out there, with heat index readings near 100.  This is not as oppressive as we have seen at times this summer, but it is still quite hot.

A isolated shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out due to the high heat and dew points, but the chance is very low. This is due to sinking air underneath the ridge of high pressure that is sitting over the Tennessee Valley.  The latest NAM3 model shows a few storms to our east:

Wednesday

Another hot and humid day is on tap as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure remains anchored across the Southeastern portion of the country. High temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than Tuesday with the presence of some clouds, but we should still see a high around 95 degrees.  Dew points will climb into the lower 70s which will keep heat index readings near 100 degrees once again.  An isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out, but it looks very unlikely.

Thursday and Friday

Hot and humid!

Stay cool and check back for updates!


Hot and Steamy Wednesday; Cooler Thursday into the Weekend with Storms

Wednesday

Another hot and steamy day is on tap as winds from the south continue to pump hot and humid air into the region. High temperatures will top out at 96 degrees with heat index values between 100 and 104. This is right below the threshold for a Heat Advisory, but it will still be oppressive out there.

Here are some heat safety tips to remember:

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon due to the combination of the heat and humidity, although we do not expect anything significant, as that will come Thursday and Friday.

The latest run of the HRRR shows almost nothing across the Middle Tennessee region, but remember that models are not perfect and in this summer pattern, an isolated thunderstorm could pop anywhere.

The latest NAM3 model agrees with the HRRR:

Thursday and Friday

A cold front will gradually drop south into the region bringing showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will also be on the decline with a high of 91 Thursday and only 87 Friday, but dew points will still remain in the 70s.  Outdoor plans will most likely be altered, especially during the afternoon.  Here is the latest from the National Weather Service:

By Thu morning, cold front drops into the northern TN valley and moisture advection gets into gear. We are likely to see isolated showers/storms tonight, but later Thu is when more widespread development will begin. And right now it looks as if we will stay in this unsettled pattern at least into early next week.

Here is the NAM3 model for Thursday showing a line of showers coming through in the morning, along with storms firing in the late afternoon.

For those going to the festivities at Live On The Green in Public Square Park, you may want to grab a rain jacket just in case. 

 

 

Weekend

The weekend looks to be unsettled as a frontal boundary stalls across the state, providing a focus for daily showers and thunderstorms. No specific ETAs but outdoor plans may be spoiled.

Stay cool and be sure to check back for updates!

Hot and Humid Monday, Dangerous Heat and Strong Storms Tuesday

Monday

As the ridge of high pressure over Texas moves eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley today, temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. Dew points rise into the mid and upper 60s.  It will be a mostly sunny and hot afternoon with high temperatures around 95. Heat index readings will be between 100 and 105 degrees which will make it feel quite hot and oppressive.

Tuesday – Heat Advisory in Effect

Tuesday will be the hottest day with some strong afternoon thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee. High temperatures will be around 97 with dew points in the mid 70s will allow for dangerously hot conditions as heat index readings reach between 105 and 110 degrees.

A Heat Advisory has been issued by NWS for Tuesday as heat index values climb above 105°. Here are their recommendations:

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM, STAY OUT OF THE SUN, AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

   TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS, IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE.
WHEN POSSIBLE, RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING
OR EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

   TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK, THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY
AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST
BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME
BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION.   HEAT
STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY, CALL 9 1 1.

Storms

As a cold front approaches from the northwest, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Middle Tennessee region during the afternoon.  The high temperatures and dew points will provide a lot of storm fuel available and some of the storms could turn severe.  Main threats will be damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or more, flash flooding from heavy downpours, and some small hail.

Here is the latest HRRR model showing the storms firing up in that 3-10 PM timeframe:

Rest of the Week

Turning cooler and less humid with plenty of sunshine Wednesday through the end of the work week.

Stay cool and check back for updates!

Mostly Dry (but still hot) Start to the Week, Wetter Later This Week

Monday and Tuesday

The week will start off much drier than what we saw this weekend.

Typical summer-time heat and humidity continues. High temperatures will top out near 90 degrees Monday and 92 on Tuesday. Dew points will be in the mid and upper 60s which will make it feel a bit sticky out there this afternoon.

Below is a graphic showing the effect of the dew point on your life

While most places will remain dry, an isolated shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out both afternoons due to the heat and humidity.

The latest HRRR model shows just a few cells popping up, but nothing significant is expected.

The NAM3 model agrees:

Wednesday through Friday

A few disturbances will track across the Tennessee Valley later this week which will increase our shower and thunderstorm chances. Models disagree on timing, however:

The first one looks to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, however, there are some stark differences regarding the amount of coverage and when precipitation will begin. I was initially going to [increase rain chances] in this time frame and while this may end up needing to be done, the latest Euro has come in almost completely dry until Wednesday afternoon. The NAM is extremely aggressive early Wednesday morning, but my perception of the NAM lately has been more of an outlier than a reliable source.

The GFS falls in the middle of them, so I`ll lean in that direction and keep just chance [of rain] in for now.

Regardless of the model timing, it does look like the middle of the week is shaping up to be wetter than the beginning of the week.

Here is the latest National Weather Service forecast:

Be sure to check back for updates and have a great day!

Summer Weather Returns Into The Weekend

Friday

The high pressure system over the Ohio Valley that brought beautiful and pleasant weather to the Mid State region this week will slowly weaken allowing for warm, moist air to return on southerly winds. This will send our high temperature to 89 degrees today. Dew points will slowly climb into the mid 60s which will make it feel a tad stickier than it has all week.

Below is a graphic showing the effect of the dew point on your life

Saturday And Sunday

This southerly flow will continue this weekend allowing temperatures to climb into the low 90s both Saturday and Sunday. Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s making it feel just a bit uncomfortable, but not oppressive like we saw last weekend. We will have to watch out for a few pop showers and thunderstorms with the increase in heat and humidity but nothing significant is expected.

Here is the latest HRRR model which shows just a few pop up showers or storms late Saturday afternoon, again we do not expect anything significant.

Next Week

Monday will continue to be warm and humid ahead of a cold front that will push through Tuesday and Wednesday. This front may stall across the state providing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. This is what the National Weather Service has to say:

Likely showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by Tuesday with the western part of Middle TN seeing scattered storms Monday night.

The front that brings the thunderstorms looks like it could get hung up on the Appalachian mountains giving middle TN /especially the Cumberland Plateau and south/ several days of diurnal thunderstorm chances lasting into next weekend.

This is the latest NWS forecast for early next week:

Have a great day and be sure to check back for updates!

Sunny And Pleasant Through Friday; Warmer, But Dry (Probably) Over The Weekend

Thursday

Beautiful and sunny across the Mid State this afternoon! High temperatures will reach right around 87 degrees but it will be comfortable as dew points remain in the 50s.

Satellite as of 12:45 pm shows a few clouds forming this afternoon, but nothing to worry about.

Tonight, we’ll drop down to a very comfortable 64°. The evenings this week have been fantastic!

Friday

Warmer with plenty of sunshine! The high is forecast to be 89°, but the dewpoint nudges up to 61°, which means (see below). Still manageable though.

The Weekend

Temperatures will warm a couple more degrees along with humidity levels increasing but overall a fantastic weekend ahead!

Here is the latest forecast by the National Weather Service:

It wouldn’t be impossible for us to get a pop up storm over the weekend, but those odds are low. However, rain chances do go up by Tuesday of next week. More on that as we get closer.

Looking Ahead Through the Next Few Months

You’ve read this far because you like weather. So, let’s weather. The Climate Prediction Center has released its outlook for August through October. There’s a 33% chance of above normal temperatures and equal chances of above/below normal precip.

Enjoy the beautiful weather this week and keep checking back for more updates!

Dangerously Hot and Humid Today

Today

A Heat Advisory is in effect from 12 PM CDT to 7 PM CDT.

Dangerously hot and humid conditions will persist across the Mid State region today as a ridge of high pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere takes control of our weather.  High temperatures will top out around 95 degrees this afternoon with dew points in the mid 70s. This will cause heat indices to soar to near 105 degrees making for oppressive and dangerous conditions. 

Be sure to reschedule any activities to later this afternoon or this evening if possible, and be aware of the symptoms related to heat illness.

Take frequent breaks and stay well hydrated if you have to be outside during peak heating, and try to have some access to shade if possible.

It is worth noting all of the information above, and to remain weather aware.

Due to the very hot temperatures and high dew point values, there will be enough instability in the atmosphere to get an isolated thunderstorm to develop, but it will not be anything widespread, and unfortunately will not bring any relief from the heat.  The latest HRRR model shows this below:

 

This Weekend

Remaining hot and very humid.

The National Weather Service says this:

Despite the increasing ridge today, it looks like a weak disturbance will move slowly from east to west across the southern portion of the ridge on Saturday. Along with a corresponding increase in moisture, this feature should increase the chances for showers and storms Saturday (especially south and east counties) into Sunday (areawide). This may “drop” the heat index a couple degrees Saturday and another couple degrees on Sunday.

Stay cool and be sure to check back for updates!


Heatwave to Envelope the Region This Weekend into Early Next Week

Friday through Sunday

Hot and humid with highs in the lower 90s and dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will allow for heat indexes to climb into the mid and upper 90s.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms can’t be ruled out Friday through Sunday due to the instability in the atmosphere from the heat and humidity, but we do not expect widespread storms like we saw the past couple of days. The latest run of the NAM3 model shows just a few pop up storms Friday through Sunday:

Outdoor Activities This Weekend

Yes it’s going to be hot. Really hot. But it’s also going to be very sunny and pets, the elderly, or those working outside should take precautions.

Have the shade and the water ready! Here’s a PSA from our friends at the National Weather Service.

Early Next Week

Remaining hot and humid!

Stay cool and be sure to check back for updates!