Weekend Rain, Otherwise Comfortable

Calm, Dry End of the Week

We can expect mostly sunny skies Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s highs reach 65°, while Friday’s highs reach 76°.

Secure any hats Friday as winds will blow at 10-15 MPH, with gusts as high as 20 MPH.

Friday Night Showers

A line of showers is expected to move through Friday night. A current look at the NAM3 model:

Timing could change, but the NAM3 says it’ll move in around 8 PM Friday and leave around 2 AM Saturday.

No severe weather concerns. Just light to moderate showers.

Cooler Saturday, Rain Moves Back in Saturday Night/Sunday

Skies clear up Saturday and high temps drop to 65°.

Showers should return overnight Saturday, with more rain Sunday.

A look at the GFS from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday:

Once again, no severe concerns as of right now. However, we could have just enough instability to get a few thunderstorms. Nothing severe.

Once rain moves out Monday, we are looking at a dry start to next week and another warming trend.

Temperature Overview

A look at temperatures over the next 7 days:


The next potential weathermaker/storm system is expected here in the late Wednesday – Friday range.

Also, this:

Nice End of the Week, Easter Sunday Rainout

Thursday: Sunny, high of 65°, breezy.

Friday: Down to 38° early AM. Then copy and paste the rest of Thursday, but a high of 59°.

Saturday: Cold start to the morning with highs in the mid to upper-30s. Some could possibly wake up to some patchy frost if it gets cold enough. Sunny, high of 68°.

Overall, not too shabby.

Soaked Easter Sunday

Our next big system moves in Easter Sunday.

The EURO model currently shows rain moving in Sunday morning and lasting through early Monday:

Right now, it looks like we could see anywhere from 1.5″ to 3″ of rain. Gross.

One model, the Euro, has a swath of 4″ of rain in 24 hours on Easter Sunday in Middle Tennessee. This is probably overdoing it, but we don’t want to hide data from you (as long as you review all the data and not fixate on the worst case scenario).

The GFS model predicts less rain:

We like that 1.5″ to 3″ range for now.

STORMS?

Probably not. Local wind energy will be off the charts, but instability will be much further south where the severe potential is:

This is subject to change, but as long as the low pressure doesn’t move north, we shouldn’t expect any severe weather. Just a lot of rain.

Temp Outlook

An overview of temps over the next 7 days:

Rain, Maybe Storms, Tuesday, & Are We Done Freezing?

Comfortable Sunday & Monday

Mostly sunny, highs Sunday (today) 77°, and 79° Monday.

Humidity will rise each day this week. Dewpoints in the low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain, Potential Storms Return Tuesday

Models believe it’ll rain Tuesday.

A specific ETA is unknown because although models agree it’ll rain, they aren’t sure when. Rain could begin as early as Tuesday morning or as late as Tuesday afternoon, and should clear out by Wednesday morning. The rain should come in short waves with no expected rainouts, but, on Tuesday night . . .

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) currently thinks our probability of severe weather within 25 miles of us Tuesday night is 5%.

The greatest severe threat, in yellow in the above map, is well to our north, but we could still see thunderstorms, potentially even one or two on the stronger side. A note from NWS-Nasvhille:

For the last few days, we have only been talking about general [non-severe] thunderstorms Tuesday, but forecast soundings are now suggesting that as we get into the evening hours, with deep layer shear already in place and the atmosphere destabilizing throughout the day, we could see some dry air aloft and helicities picking up a bit, too. The best area for organization looks to be north of us at this point, but we could be looking at the potential for a strong storm or two Tuesday evening.

NWS-Nashville AM Discussion, 04/05/20

Editor’s Note: You’re probably wondering: tornadoes? Not ruling that out, but this looks more like a damaging wind or hail threat, and risks are low. Models aren’t in agreement on much, so unless and until they start to align better, there’s no way to forecast (hail/wind/tornado) specifics with intellectual honesty. SPC will update its Tuesday outlook with specifics on Monday.

After Tuesday

Skies should remain cloudy. The chance of rain continues, but PoPs (probabilities of precipitation) are low. Models don’t agree on what’ll happen Wednesday and beyond (GFS model is dry, Euro model is wet).

Temperatures stay unseasonably warm, but generally begin a downward trend starting on Thursday:

Much drier, more comfortable air is also expected beginning Thursday.

The Euro model thinks we’ll get about 1″ rain Saturday. We will see about that.

Are We Done Freezing?

Our last freeze was March 8 (32F at 5:37 AM).

We may still freeze. Check out medium range data for April 13 (you can also see the Euro model’s rainfall spike for Saturday).

Some Rain, but Severe Weather Unlikely for the Foreseeable Future

Nice End of the Week

Thursday’s high reaches 66° with mostly sunny skies. Copy and paste this for Friday, but with a high temp of 77°.

This was me reading this forecast.

Weekend Showers?

Saturday starts partly sunny, then a light rain system moves close by Saturday night and Sunday. It may or may not produce local rain. Models think the system is weak, lacking rainmaking and storm-making ingredients. Some of us may get a little rain, no washout.

No need to cancel any outdoor plans right now that you may have this weekend. Temps will stay above average in the mid to upper-70s.

Rain Chances Increase Next Week

A system currently forming out west will work its way east next week. It should weaken by the time it arrives, but some rain is a good bet. NWS-Nashville has some good news:

Rain chances will increase by Monday, but the aforementioned surface system promises to weaken considerably by the time it gets here. So, in spite of another rainy week coming up, QPF‘s aren’t all that high. Given the warmth of the air mass during this stretch, we can expect some instability, so thunderstorms are possible at times, but the SPC has very properly left us out of any severe weather potential for the foreseeable future.

NWS-Nashville AM Discussion, 04/02/2020

The foreseeable future is about one week.

Check out the temp trend:

Chance of Rain Tuesday, Otherwise Great Week Ahead

Comfortable Sun/Mon

Sunday (today): Dry, sunny, high of 71°, 15 MPH winds with gusts as high as 25 MPH.

Monday: Copy and paste Sunday, but with a high of 69° and a light breeze.

This is perfect weather if you ask me.

Rainy Tuesday

Both the EURO and GFS models agree it’ll rain on Tuesday. While rain is expected to begin Tuesday morning, the good news it that it will move out by Tuesday evening/night.

Currently no severe weather concerns. Models show anywhere from 0.5 – 1.25 inches of rain Tuesday.

High temps drop to a cooler 54°.

Nice End to the Week

Dry weather moves back in Wednesday, and temps will be back on the rise.

It should generally stay dry, but keep in mind that there could be some showers next weekend. A note from NWS-Nashville:

Some subtle shortwave activity moves through the ridge and may allow for some showers to impact the mid state during the day Friday. Model solutions are not in complete agreement on this, or for the rain chances next Saturday, but went ahead and kept slight chance pops from Friday afternoon through early Monday morning. It does not look like a complete washout weekend by any means, but the only agreement is southwest flow aloft between model solutions, and that usually will indicate the potential for rain at some point next weekend.

NWS-Nasvhille AM Discussion, 03/29/20

An overview of temperatures this week:

Rain/Storms Expected Saturday Afternoon/Night (so far, it doesn’t look like a big deal)

Nice End to the Week

Thursday: Sunny, high of 81°, southerly winds of 5-15 MPH with gusts as high as 20 MPH.

Friday: Some clouds move in, dry, high of 83°.

Overall, a great end to the week.

The Weekend: Rain Chances Return

Saturday starts off dry, but the chance of rain increases later into the afternoon and evening.

A snippet from the NWS-Nashville Discussion:

WPC`s model discussion and this forecast lean toward a blend of solutions, with rain and thunderstorms approaching the TN River around [6 PM Saturday]. Enough instability will be in place for a couple strong or severe storms Saturday night. Damaging winds will be the main concern as low-level wind fields run parallel to storm motion. The SPC has highlighted locations along and west of I-65 in a Marginal Risk for severe storms on Saturday night.

NWS-Nashville AM Discussion, 03/26/20

Nashville and areas west of I-65 have a 5% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a location. For now, this does not look like a tornado event for us, but that may change. News is encouraging. The trend has been away from the worst of this system. Compared to two days ago, when the highest risk was atop us, today that greatest risk for severe weather (the 15% chance) shifted even further away:

Temps stay warm Saturday with a high of 79°.

Sunny skies return Sunday and high temps drop down to the upper-60s.

Rain and Potential Storms Thurs Night/Fri, Cooler Weekend Ahead

Warm and Humid Thursday

Showers moved through the area this morning.

Weaker showers are forming to our southwest and may or may not make it here today. They’re scattered and light and will probably miss us. For most of the day, we should stay dry until late tonight.

Expect a warm, humid and windy day as winds could gust up to 25 MPH:

More Rain, Potential Storms Thurs Night/Fri

An incoming cold front will bring some more rain and possible storms overnight Thursday into Friday.

The NAM3 model shows more showers beginning around midnight, with a line of rain/storms around 8 or 9 AM Friday, and a second weaker line arriving Friday around 6 PM:

The timing could shift between now and Friday, but generally expect a rain line Friday morning/early afternoon and possibly a second line closer in the evening hours. Be sure to keep the umbrella on hand as we could also see isolated showers throughout the day. The lines may be strong or severe to our northwest, then weakening when they get here. More about this below.

Temps will be warm again as the high reaches 74°.

SEVERE CONCERNS?

Not really. Here’s what NWS-Nashville says:

A far as severe storms are concerned, models continue to trend much better shear/instability northwest of the mid-state… with really our northwest having the highest chance. Chances really drop off as you head southeast as dynamics just not that impressive. There is a hint of instability ramping up again just ahead of the front Fri afternoon, thus a second line of storms may develop right along, but again remains marginal at best.


NWS-Nashville AM Discussion, 03/19/20

Greatest amount of storm ingredients are northwest of here, as illustrated by the SPC:

You may hear some thunder, but no strong or severe storms are expected as of right now. At best, we have a 5% chance of seeing a severe event within 25 miles of you. Always be suspicious of cold fronts passing through humid air, so check back later, but this isn’t freaking anyone out for us.

Cooler Weekend

Saturday dries up as we should see partly sunny skies. High temps also drop down to 55°.

Rain chances return Sunday, but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not showers will arrive sooner or later on Sunday. The GFS model says sooner, and the EURO model says later.

Highs temps Sunday also reach 55°.

Round 2 Storms Tonight

As of 4 PM, Davidson County (Nashville) remain in the Tornado Watch issued earlier today, set to expire at 5 PM. Williamson County is currently not included. It’s expected this Tornado Watch will expire without anything bad happening. We were on the southern edge of the Watched area, storms prompting the Watch passed to the north earlier this afternoon.

Why no storms? A layer of warm air a few thousand feet off the ground came through. Severe weather requires the air to be colder the further up the sky you go. When a warmer layer of air interrupts increasingly colder air, it “caps” storm development. Great job warm air aloft!

Two things to watch tonight.


First, if the “cap” erodes later this afternoon, or early tonight, more storms could develop before Round 2 arrives. These storms are unlikely, but anything develops, watch out, because all other ingredients needed to make severe weather are already in place, as shown below.

SPC mesoanalysis at 3:31 PM shows plenty of instability and shear ready to make bad storms.

The cap is saving us.


Second, we still have Round 2 storms, arriving late tonight. These may contain damaging winds, hail, maybe a tornado. A storm line will drop out of Kentucky and move southeast through Middle Tennessee.

The HRRR model shows a broken line of thunderstorms expected in around midnight, although this model may have timing wrong, so give it plus or minus 2 hours either way and go with 10 PM to 2 AM ETA.

The NAM3 model says basically the same thing, most likely arrival around midnight, but let’s call it between 10 PM and 2 AM. There should be rain out ahead of it, and the line may slow down.

Main concern will continue to be damaging winds, but of course can not rule out large hail and isolated tornado formation with ample low level shear profiles and good helicity values. Current tornado watch is still in effect until 5 PM CDT, but likely that additional severe or tornado watches will be issued as the evening hours progress.

NWS-Nashville Afternoon Forecast Discussion

As of now, the greatest risk for severe weather will still run north of I-40. Those in Nashville and Williamson County have a 5% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of you, and a 15% chance of seeing damaging wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater per the Storm Prediction Center.

12z Tornado Outlook
12z Wind Outlook

We cannot guarantee you will or will not see severe weather. The storms line should be broken, last around an hour, and there is no reliable way to say whether it’ll break on us or somewhere else. Prepare. Remain weather aware, have a plan, and have multiple ways to get warnings.

We’ll be covering this event all day and night on Twitter.

Two Rounds of Severe Weather Possible: Timing/ETA, Hazards, Threats, Risks.

This morning, Will tweeted “Do not seek definitive answers. Seek info.” Wish definitive answers existed about what will happen today. They don’t. Instead we have probabilities about what might happen. This forecast is not a prediction, it’s a threat/risk assessment, expressed as probabilities and updated throughout the day. Later today information will be more precise, timing more certain, passed quickly to you via Twitter. Be flexible, stay alert. Have a way to get warnings, and consult multiple reliable severe weather information sources (local TV meteorologists are great!).

Two rounds of storms are possible.


Round 1. This afternoon there’s a Tornado Watch until 5pm. At this time, the watch includes Davidson County but not Williamson County.

All modes of severe weather are possible, though the concern for damaging winds and tornadoes are the greatest.

The good news is at 108 PM, the storms look like they’ll come close to, but pass just NW of, Nashville. We may just get a little rain. This may change. Find frequent updates on Twitter.

The Storm Prediction Center has a a 5% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of you. Greater threat and risk is north of us.

Concern for winds is greater as we have a 15% probability of seeing damaging winds (58 MPH + winds or gusts) within 25 miles of you. 30% probability lies just north of us.

More storms may develop later this afternoon, but we’re encouraged by the trend so far.

Round 2 storms are still coming tonight. Stay weather aware throughout the day and make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings.


Round 2, tonight, 7 PM to 2 AM, a line of storms moving northwest to southeast across Middle Tennessee, with damaging winds the main threat – but large hail and a tornado or two are possible.

Confidence in this storm line developing is higher than our low confidence a round 1 storm will hit us, but whether the entire line in Round 2 will be severe (wind, hail, and/or tornadoes) remains uncertain. Usually, some parts of these lines produce severe weather, other parts do not. Other times, the entire line is severe, or the line runs out of gas, weakens, and we wonder what the fuss was about.

Below the HRRR model shows this line arriving around midnight, coming down I-24 from Clarksville:

The NAM-WRF model shows the storm line developing around 10 PM and arriving at 1 AM:

Both models show low-end probability to produce severe weather. This line will require your attention, but if the models are right (and they may be soooo wrong), it is not especially concerning. It’s just regularly concerning.


Overall hazard levels are found in various graphics, like this one from NWS-Nashville:

The most dramatic graphic is the tornado outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. It shows a 10% “hatched” area just north of Nashville, in fact, if you drill down to street level, that area covers parts of Davidson County north of Briley Parkway. The “hatched” area is dashed below, indicating tornadoes that form there may have EF-2+ power. Tornadoes are possible in either round, but the risk of the stronger tornadoes is mostly off to our north and northwest in that yellow dashed area later this afternoon and early tonight.

The hatched area is close enough to us to watch closely, but the best expression of our tornado risk is to say 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of us. Stated another way, 95% probability a tornado will not come within 25 miles of us. Low probability of a high impact event should require your attention. Sometimes low probabilities happen. Usually, they don’t.

The most likely form of severe weather is damaging winds, defined as winds 58 MPH or stronger. 15% probability a damaging wind event within 25 miles of us. For large hail, that probability is 5%. Flooding is not a concern.

Wet But Warm Week Ahead

Off and On Rain Begins Monday

… and off and on rain will carry on throughout the week.

TIMING

The HRRR model thinks scattered showers will begin Monday night (tonight) around 9 or 10pm:

The GFS model also thinks rain begins later this evening with a break after Tuesday morning, heavier rain Wednesday afternoon, and then more off and on showers through Friday:

The EURO model has some other plans with showers beginning overnight, break in rain Wednesday, then showers Thursday and Friday:

Here’s what NWS-Nashville says on timing:

There shouldn’t be solid rain starting this afternoon and running through the forecast period. The models are not in the best agreement of when the breaks will occur. Wanted to avoid flip flopping the forecast so leaned heavily on the previous forecast while blending in other guidance values. Perhaps there could be some rain breaks on Wednesday and Friday.

NWS-Nashville AM Discussion, 03/09/20

WHAT TO EXPECT

At this point, exact timing on these showers and breaks is a toss up. Just be aware that the rain will not be consistent. Showers should be scattered in nature and show up in waves.

1-1.5 inches total is expected from now through Friday. No flooding concerns.

Marginal instability will mean some rumbles of thunder, but strong/severe storms are not expected.

Weekend Uncertainty

Models are not in agreement for this weekend. The EURO model thinks rain Saturday through Sunday afternoon, while the GFS says dry Saturday and rain Sunday.

As of now, just know the chance for rain exists this weekend. Models should hopefully come into better agreement as we get closer.

Rainy but Mild Week