There are times weather models can see what’s coming so we can provide you a good, reasonably reliable (not perfect), “when and where.”
This is not one of those times.
Weather models, which in a perfect world should arrive at the same thing, predict different things. Weather models also aren’t very good at handling summertime thunderstorms.
UPDATE as of 5:00PM CDT: The eastern half of both Davidson/Williamson remain under a “Marginal Risk” (1 out of 5) for damaging winds and some hail.
We’ve seen several showers and thunderstorms impact Davidson/Williamson counties today, some with ~40 mph wind gusts. More could develop through the evening, so we will be monitoring radar for developments.
So far today we have stayed, for the most part, rain-free. Latest radar scans do not show a whole lot on the radar, so good news so far. Into the rest of the evening, we will still need to keep an eye on showers attempting to move our way.
Update: We’ve seen a few showers and storms roll through the bi-county area today. These should dissipate in conjunction with sunset, but heavy downpours remain possible through the evening.
Friday will provide increased rain chances, but particularly Friday night into Saturday. We will need to carefully monitor the potential for strong/severe storms on Saturday. While shear values are not very impressive, instability is high enough that when combined, could produce a few misbehavers. The biggest concerns would be hail and damaging winds on Saturday. All of that being said, we are not yet under any formal severe risk.
Today appears to be our last day without those afternoon isolated shower chances. Enjoy our one last semi-bearable day.
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Into this evening, clear skies will prevail. Temps will not drop as low as they have in recent times, with overnight lows only expected to reach down into the low 70s.
GFS Model Wednesday Through Friday Evening
What’s the pattern change, you ask? Hotter temps and higher humidity is what’s in store heading into late week. Sunshine will be out in full force Wednesday, but dew points will remain in the mid-upper 50s. In other words, the air won’t be too “heavy” or overbearing quite yet.
Into this evening, all evening plans are a go. Enjoy the cool temps!
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Late tonight, we could see a few scattered showers. The latest run of the HRRR shows these showers moving in around to after midnight tonight. Unless you are up that late, you probably won’t even wake up from them.
A repeat of Sunday, temp and humidity-wise.
We wrote about it this morning, and this afternoon’s model runs still have it: a quick-passing tuft of rain moving thru in the morning. Here’s the NAM3 model:
83°, with the dewpoint in the low 50°s. Low fifties! It’s like it’s not even summer!
Low 80°s temps, and as far from summertime humidity as we can get.
Very light rain may sneak in from Arkansas and Missouri Tuesday morning, but it looks pretty iffy. The GFS model shows only a sprinkle passing through Tuesday morning:
Friday’s forecast came from a pretty unified prediction by the weather models. The models thought Tropical Storm/Depression Cindy was going to move north along the Louisiana/Texas border, then turn northeast, then east, and move into Middle Tennessee right as a cold front was going to sweep through. This combo was gonna make it rain and maybe even produce damaging winds and few isolated tornadoes.Hence the Flash Flood Watch and probabilities of tornado (5%) and damaging winds (15%).
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