Coolish Temps for Now, Showers Return Sunday, COLD next week

Intern 4.0 here, a special thanks to David, Will, and Andrew for letting me make a “guest” appearance on today’s blog.

Dreary Conditions Continue Today

Technically speaking we have a very slim chance of a scattered shower this morning, but so far showers have stayed well to our south. So I wouldn’t count on any showers, but be advised if you were to feel a sprinkle or two. As you head outside this morning, you may notice the abundance of clouds overhead. Visible satellite imagery shows the sun rising over these clouds, even if we can’t see it here in Middle Tennessee.

These clouds will hang around throughout the day, aiding to keep our temperatures a bit on the chilly side. Highs will reach near 47 by this afternoon. For those with any evening plans, you will definitely want to grab a jacket before heading out the door. Temps will remain in the low 40s through most of the evening hours.

Pleasant Day on Saturday

For those who have been hoping for a weekend to get outside, maybe do some yard work and not have to fight off the rain, Saturday is your day. Highs are expected to reach into the low 50s, with mostly cloudy skies overhead. Though, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get an appearance or two from the sun.

If you don’t have plans on Saturday, or just want something fun to do, be sure to head over to Trevecca for this year’s annual SWAD meeting. You will be able to meet meteorologists from the National Weather Service, local TV meteorologists, and the guys behind NashSevereWx.

Showers Begin to Arrive Saturday Night and Continue Through Sunday

Our couple of days of no rain could only last so long as more showers are expected to arrive on Sunday. We should make it through evening hours on Saturday rain-free, with showers not arriving until overnight/early Sunday morning. All of the ingredients needed for thunderstorms should remain to our south, so we are just expecting cold showers through the day on Sunday.

You may notice on the back side of the rain, that the GFS wants to bring some wintry precipitation to Middle Tennessee. Like any Middle Tennessee winter weather event, there would only be a very small window where this is possible late on Sunday into early Monday. Over the next few days, the position of the low pressure system bringing these showers will need to be watched. If the low pressure continues drifting southward, we may need to talk about some wintry precipitation more. However, where things stand right now, it’s only worth mentioning.

Highs will reach into the mid 40s on Sunday, so temps would need to fall pretty quickly for things to make the wintry transition. Worth mentioning, worth keeping an eye on, but honestly at this point I wouldn’t be too concerned about it.

When all is said and done this weekend, we are expecting to see anywhere from about 1″ to 1.5″ of rain across our area. Our ground is still pretty saturated from last weekend’s rain event, but these showers should move through fast enough to not cause any flooding issues. Regardless, if we do see heavy rain at any point, I would not be surprised if there was some ponding of water in low-lying areas.

Next Week Looks Chilly

I think we can all agree that we need another break from the rain. Luckily, next week we appear to be getting that much needed break. Following Sunday’s cold front, much cooler air and a surface high pressure system. This high pressure system will help to keep away any of those pesky fronts that often bring moisture to Middle Tennessee. Say thank you high pressure!

The one downfall from this is that temperatures will remain well-below average through at least the first half of next week. Monday and Tuesday highs will struggle to get above freezing with highs only reaching into the 40s by Wednesday. I hope you haven’t put your winter clothes and blankets away just yet, because you are going to want them next week.

Sunshine to Begin the Weekend, Showers Arrive on Sunday

Editor’s Note: Caroline’s Last Day!

We interview interns by Google Hangouts. Two years ago, we did one last one interview, thinking we were going to choose only Brendan. When it was over, me, Will, and Andrew immediately said: “Well, there is nothing to talk about, this is a no-brainer, Caroline is going to be very good at this.” We were right. Caroline will graduate from Mississippi State this spring, then transition to grad school. She’s been a leader at State.  She has volunteered at NWS-Nashville during the summer (they love her), and has driven up here to help everyone out during Severe Weather Awareness Day. Most of all, she has excellent weather skills, she’s reliable, trustworthy, and smart. Our rule is that interns graduate from @NashSevereWx when they finish undergrad, if not before. With our full support, she’s going to help out @memphisweather1 while she continues her post-grad education. Caroline has served me, Will, and Andrew well. She’s been no stress for us, she needs no editing; it takes a lot for us to trust someone with @NashSevereWx and she earned that trust right away. She’s served our community well, behind the scenes, during challenging forecasts. We will miss working with you, Caroline. We look forward to what your future will bring. It’s not goodbye. It’s see ya later.

Sunshine Helps to Warm Temps Today, Saturday Looks Great Too

Heading to the Preds game tonight? You may want a jacket before heading into Bridgestone. For those watching outside, you will want a blanket as well. Temps will be in the mid-50s by puck drop with temps falling into the low-50s by the end of the game. Go Preds!

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Into tomorrow, we will finally get a rain-free Saturday! Temps will climb to just above normal with highs near the mid-70s. If you don’t have plans to be outside, make some and enjoy the fantastic weather.

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Periods of Showers Return Next Week

Unfortunately, our sunny skies could only last for a few days. Another system will begin to build in late Saturday night, bringing cloud coverage with it.

By Sunday morning, showers will be knocking on our doorstep. There appears to be some model differences as to when showers will begin, but expect showers in the afternoon and into the evening hours. No severe weather is expected.

GFS Loop Early Sunday Through Late Tuesday

After Sunday, off and on showers look to continue Monday through the middle of next week. While there won’t be a lot of rain with these showers, they will keep our temps below normal throughout most of next week.

Spring will return eventually folks; we may just have to wait a bit longer for it to come back to us.

Writer’s Note:

Hey guys. Today is my final day officially writing for you. It has been a journey over the past two years, one I am so thankful to have been able to be a part of. First of all, thank you David, Will, and Andrew for taking a chance on me two years ago. Your hard work doesn’t go unnoticed. You guys do so many great things for the community and I’m thankful that I have be able to be a part of it. Secondly, I want to thank all of you loyal readers for your support and following along with me over the past two years. Y’all rock. You are all in good hands with the two new interns, they rock. This isn’t a goodbye, it’s just a see you later. I live close to Nashville, so this has always hit close to home to me.

Also one last thing, Go Preds!

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Showers Continue into Tonight, Fantastic Weather Conditions Return on Saturday


Showers Continuing Today

Current Radar Loop as of 2 PM

Showers continue to move across much of Middle Tennessee. Scattered showers will likely hang around into the evening hours, so have the rain boots and umbrella handy!

A Flood Watch is in effect until 7 PM tonight due to the heavy amounts of rainfall we have seen over the past 24 hours.

Skies Clearing Tomorrow, Saturday Looks Wonderful

Highs tomorrow will be a bit cooler than today, with temps reaching the low-60s. Expect cloudy skies in the AM to thin out through the day; we may even get some sunshine by the afternoon!

Have any outdoor plans on Saturday? You are in luck. Saturday appears to be a fantastic day with highs in the low 70s and sunny skies. If you don’t have any outdoor plans, you may want to make some with how nice it’ll be! Enjoy!

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Sunday into Next Week Looks Gloomy

Cloudy skies look to be the main story for Easter Sunday with highs in the mid-50s. There may be rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning!

The Euro thinks so. Sunrise service and egg hunts may be wet and kinda chilly.

The idyllic springy Easter morning…

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…does not look good.

By the beginning of next week, we will begin to shift back into an “active” weather pattern. Keeping an eye on a few cold fronts that will pass through next week, since we are entering the active springtime weather season. Temps will begin to rebound back into the 60s on Monday.


Shower/Wintry Mix Possible Tonight, Freezing Temps Overnight

Cloudy Skies for Now, Showers & Some Wintry Mix Possible Later Today

Today is the first day of Spring!

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Unfortunately, it won’t really feel too much like spring today. Chilly and cloudy conditions will prevail through the AM with showers arriving later in the afternoon. Today’s temps look to steadily fall throughout the day.

NWS Temperature Trend

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While we could see a scattered shower or two around the lunch hour, the majority of showers look to arrive sometime during the late afternoon into rush hour tonight.

Later in the evening, some wintry flurries could begin to mix in with this rain. Any wintry mix we see tonight will be gone by tomorrow morning.

HRRR Loop Now Through Midnight

Since we have been pretty warm over the past few days, ground temps are too warm for any accumulation. We are not expecting any major impacts from this wintry mix tonight.

With any winter mix potential, we will continue to keep an eye on things through the day. As always, be sure to follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the latest information.

For the early AM hours tomorrow, there is a Freeze Warning out for both Davidson and Williamson Counties.

Be sure to bring pets inside and any vegetation that could be harmed by freezing temperatures.

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Clearing Skies Wednesday & Thursday, More Shower Chances Return by Friday

Overall, temps for the rest of the week look to stay in the 50s to low 60s, keeping us around average for the time of year. Tomorrow and Thursday look to be the “better” days of the week with skies gradually becoming sunny tomorrow and mostly sunny skies on Thursday.

Late Thursday night through the weekend, shower chances look to return.

GFS Loop 7 PM Friday Through 1 AM Sunday

Specific timing this far out is still uncertain, however, no severe weather is expected with any of these showers.

https://giphy.com/gifs/rain-drops-KYuv1HLEc20kU


Cloudy with an Outside Chance of Showers Today, Sunshine Returns on Monday

Cloudy Skies Today, Uncertainty with Showers Over the Next Two Days

A blanket of clouds currently sits over much of Middle Tennessee. Expect clouds to hang around throughout the day.

We’ve been talking about shower chances for the past few days now and luckily we may stay in the clear today. Showers are currently set up to our south and both the HRRR and NAM3 have them staying there. We still have the outside chance of a scattered shower, but no washout is expected for today.

HRRR Loop Now Through 1 AM

Tomorrow appears to have the “better” chance of showers compared to today. Near the end of the HRRR loop above, showers are setting up to our southeast moving this way. NAM3 wants to keep showers to our south tomorrow morning, with some showers arriving late tomorrow into early Monday.

NAM3 Loop Noon Today Through 7 AM Monday

Overall, models are having a difficult time agreeing on timing of any showers this weekend. We will probably see a shower or two at some point through the weekend, more than likely sometime tomorrow.

Luckily, total accumulation looks to be kept to a minimum, so even if we see showers we are not expecting a washout.

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Daylight Savings Time Begins Sunday Morning

Don’t forget we are losing an hour of sleep Saturday night!

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Plenty of Sunshine Next Week

Besides a lot of sunshine for next week, we will only have minor temperature variations. Expect the first half of the week to be a bit on the cooler side with highs in the upper 40s and overnight lows falling below freezing. By the middle of next week, temps will return to near/above average with highs reaching the mid-60s by next Friday.

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Sunshine Today & Tomorrow, Off and On Showers This Weekend

Plenty of Sunshine, Still a Bit Chilly Today

Sunny skies for today with a few passing clouds. While the sunshine will be out in full force, our temps will still be fairly cool with highs in the mid-40s.

Other than that, looks like a pretty awesome Thursday to me!

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Mild and Soggy Weekend Ahead

Starting Friday, clouds will begin to roll into the Middle Tennessee area. Starting Friday night through Sunday, showers are possible. We will not see constant showers through this entire timeframe, and the exact timing of showers remains highly uncertain. Models are still having a difficult time resolving the exact timing of showers.

Models like the GFS want to bring scattered showers beginning Saturday morning. GFS wants to keep showers around the Middle Tennessee area through Sunday afternoon whereas the Euro has showers leaving Sunday morning.

Different resolutions of the NAM also bring in different time issues. NAM12 doesn’t want to bring showers until late in the day Saturday and only have those showers lingering through Sunday morning. Additionally, NAM3 doesn’t bring in showers until the afternoon hours on Saturday.

GFS Loop Noon Friday Through 7 AM Monday

NAM-12km Loop Noon Saturday Through 10 AM Sunday

NAM-3km Loop Noon Friday Through 6 PM Saturday

While timing is an issue, this appears to be a rain-only event. Most areas could see anywhere from an inch to two inches of rainfall over the span of this weekend. Looking at each model, they seem to all agree that Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening will be the best time to see these showers.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, keep the umbrella handy. You shouldn’t need it the entire weekend, but there will definitely be periods where you will.

Temps will stay near average through the weekend coasting around in the 50s for our highs and 40s for our lows.

Things begin to shift Sunday night as much cooler temps funnel in for our overnight temps. Next week, highs look to stay in the low 50s with overnight temps dancing near freezing once again. Looks like old man winter isn’t ready to give up on us quite yet.

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Daylight Savings Time Begins Sunday Morning


A Short Break from the Rain Today, More Rain Arrives Overnight


Above Average Temps and Sunny Skies Today

One last day of that full on sunshine as things will change tomorrow. Highs will reach into the 70s with a light breeze through the day.

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Unfortunately, today’s sunshine will be short-lived. Some clouds will begin to funnel in late this afternoon into this evening ahead of tomorrow’s rainy pattern.

Several flood advisories remain in effect for portions of the Stones River and Cumberland River.

Cumberland River 

Stones River

Cumberland River

Showers Beginning Early Tomorrow, Flood Watch

Our sunshine could only last so long, expect tomorrow and Thursday to be some pretty dreary days. Showers look to begin a little after midnight tonight and continue through the daytime on Thursday.

HRRR is just now coming into range for tonight, and has some scattered showers arriving just before midnight, with the main bulk of showers arriving a little after midnight. NAM3 and GFS have similar timelines with showers reaching our area around midnight tonight.

HRRR Loop Now Through 1 AM Tomorrow

NAM3 Loop 9 PM Tonight Through Noon Thursday

GFS Loop Through Midnight Tonight Through Late Thursday Night

Throughout Wednesday and Thursday, there will be periods of heavier rainfall and periods of more scattered rainfall. Overall, the heaviest rainfall is expected to go to our south, near the Alabama border. We could still see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over our area.

Since we have seen so much rainfall this month, and heavy bands of showers are possible, the Weather Prediction Center has included us in their Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for tomorrow.

Again, while the heaviest showers should go to our south, we will still be receiving a lot of rainfall over the next two days. For this reason, we have a flood watch for both Davidson and Williamson Counties that will begin tomorrow afternoon.

Flood Watch Beginning Tomorrow Afternoon Through Thursday Morning

No severe weather, besides the flooding risk, is expected with these showers.

This is an evolving system that we will need to keep an eye on over the next 24-48 hours. Uncertainty still remains with the timing of the heaviest bands, and where those heavy showers will set-up. We will continue to keep an eye on things and let you know the latest information here and @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Friday and this Weekend Look Great

After what seems to have been days and days with rain, we will finally be getting a multi-day break from the shower activity. Friday through Sunday sunny skies will be well in control. Highs will be near-normal for the time of year, with highs in the mid-50s Friday, upper-50s Saturday, and low-60s by Sunday.

Enjoy the Spring-like weekend folks!

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Tornado Watch for Davidson and Williamson Counties Until 2 AM

A tornado watch has been issued for both Davidson and Williamson Counties until 2 AM.

Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main concern.

While the watch lasts until 2 AM, storms will arrive well before then. Expect storms to arrive between 10 PM and midnight. The strongest storms are along the front line of showers. Once these pass through, our threat will diminish.

Now is the time to take any precautionary measures necessary. If you are in a mobile home, now is the time to go to a structured building. By the time a warning is issued, there will not be enough time.

Be sure to have multiple, reliable ways to receive warnings if any are issued. 


Focusing on Severe Weather Potential for Tonight: Flooding, Damaging Winds, & an Isolated Tornado all Possible

Flood Watch Continues Through Tomorrow Morning

NWS Nashville: A strong low pressure system will sweep through the mid state Saturday night, with additional heavy rainfall expected. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast during the next 24 hours. This will fall on ground that is largely saturated, and will drain into streams and rivers that are already running high from previous heavy rainfall. Therefore, localized flash flooding and river flooding are possible during and after this next heavy rain event.

Severe Storm Potential into Tonight

Cloudy skies now with the chance of some light, scattered showers during the day. We are keeping a close eye on a storm system that posses to bring severe weather to our area late tonight.

This system seems to have a typical spring-like set up with “meh” amounts of instability (don’t let the lack of instability fool you though, there is still plenty to get some bad storms) and a whole lot of shear (which leads to the damaging wind and isolated tornado threat).

Lots of variables still at play and this appears to be a night-arrival event. Consult multiple reliable sources throughout the day for the latest updates on timing and threats from this system.

Timing

Timing is one of the factors that will be constantly evolving today. The NAM/GFS/Euro all have the heaviest line of showers arriving just after midnight. On the other hand, the HRRR has the heaviest showers arriving just before midnight.

HRRR Loop Now Through 11 PM Tonight

NAM3 Loop Now Through 11 AM Tomorrow

GFS Loop Noon Today Through Noon Tomorrow

The main line of showers/storms should arrive between 10 PM and 11 PM tonight. However, showers could arrive earlier than anticipated. Be sure to stay connected through the day for updates.

Impacts

Besides the flooding concerns, we are currently included in the elevated risk (think 3 on a 0-5 scale) category from the Storm Prediction Center.

To further break down this risk, we are in the 30% probability of damaging winds and 5% probability of a tornado. There does not appear to be a hail threat for our area.

SPC Wind Outlook: 30% for our area

SPC Tornado Outlook: 5% for our area

Flooding, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are all possible with these storms. These are dangerous threats that become even more dangerous during nighttime, when the majority of the storms are anticipated to arrive. Have multiple ways of receiving watches and warnings this afternoon, evening, and into the overnight hours. 

This is an evolving event that may have timing/threat changes through the daytime. Be sure to stay alert this afternoon/evening and know where to take cover if a warning is issued for your area.

We will be watching these storms very closely throughout the day. As always, the most up-to-date information can be found @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Today is Severe Weather Awareness Day (SWAD 2018)!

Don’t have any plans today? Well you are in luck! Our local National Weather Service Office is hosting their annual SWAD today from 9 AM to 4 PM. Come check out all of the fun activities for the family and have some weather nerd fun in the afternoon.

Sunday and Beyond

Showers on Sunday morning will greatly depend on when the main line of showers (discussed above) arrive. A later arrival could make for a few lingering showers into the early AM hours Sunday. Besides that, expect clearing into the afternoon.

Behind our current weather system, a high pressure will bring some sunny skies and mild temps for the first half of the week. Another rainy system will move through sometime towards the middle of the week, ushering in more average temperatures behind it.


Flood Watch, Lots of Showers, Potential For Severe Weather Saturday Night


A Soggy and Dreary Couple of Days

Showers currently drift along to our southeast. Those in the southern portions of Williamson Counties may see a few of these showers this morning. Those in Davidson County may get a slight break through the AM.

Nonetheless, more showers are expected to move our way through the day. Continue to keep the umbrella handy!

HRRR Loop Through 1 AM

This off and on shower pattern looks to continue over the next few days. Friday night into Saturday morning looks to be the best possible “break” from these showers.

GFS Loop Now Through Noon Sunday

With all of these rain chances over the next few days, our Flood Watch continues.

If you happen to come across a flooded road over the next few days, remember turn around don’t drown!

Through Sunday, expect anywhere from 1.5″ to 3″ of additional rainfall across our area.

About Saturday’s Severe Weather Potential

For Saturday, the AM and early afternoon hours primarily look okay. We may see a few scattered showers, but the heaviest showers do not look to arrive until the late afternoon to evening.

GFS and the NAM want to bring the heaviest showers late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

NAM Loop 6 PM Saturday Through Noon Sunday

Flooding will continue to be a risk with these showers, which is why the Flood Watch extends through Saturday night. Again, if you come across a flooded road over the next few days, turn around! Don’t pass through flood waters.

In addition to these flooding concerns, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area for a Day 3 Slight Risk.

There are still a lot of variables at play here that could determine how severe storms become, or if we even see severe weather at all. Strong wind gusts will be present throughout the day before this expected line of storms even arrive.

Overall, the main threats from this system appear to be damaging winds with the possibility of a brief tornado. This potential has our attention, and will needed to be monitored over the next few days.

A lot can change, and likely will change, before Saturday, so continue to check back here through Saturday.

Sunday and Beyond

Things look to dry out by Sunday afternoon into the beginning of next week. Temps will coast around in the 60s through the majority of next week as well.

Reminder: Saturday is Severe Weather Awareness Day

Be sure to join us for SWAD 2018! Lots of fun activities for families and your inner weather nerd.