Temperatures are beginning to fall and will soon dip below freezing. If the forecast holds true, they will not rise above 32° until around 10am Thursday morning. That’s about 104 hours at or below freezing. Your mileage may vary. read more

At the time of this writing, rain is knocking on the door of both Davidson and Williamson Counties. See latest radar here.

The morning weather balloon in Nashville showed some pretty dry air in the mid-levels, which means the air will pick up some of the moisture the clouds will be putting down. Translation: scattered showers have been a little slower to get here. read more

What’s left of Beryl is a low end severe threat for us. SPC calls it a 5% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of you. Lower chances SE of Nashville.

There is also a low risk of damaging straight-line winds with storms that occur where you are. read more

While this isn’t a forecast blog, this is a look ahead to something coming soon!

David, Will and I remember the days, not so long ago, when we were financially supporting NashSevereWx out of our own pockets. Granted, we didn’t have as many ongoing costs as we do now. But, being weather twitterers was a sandbox we wanted to play in, and our families were gracious enough to humor us (and still do). read more

A storm complex will make a run at us overnight tonight, kicking off an off/on rainy Sunday.

HRRR thinks the first round of rain gets here around 3:00 am. Could have some thunder/lightning with it. Doggies prepare. The window closes on rain chances about 7:00 pm. Time stamps top left. read more

Our local NWS office issues a technical forecast discussion at least twice a day. They’re filled with information, and often contain terms that are understood by the weather community, but perhaps, not many others. However, today’s discussion is perfect for just about everyone. Didn’t see much of a need to re-invent the wheel…except for maybe substituting a word or two. Read on.

From NWS Nashville re: Saturday’s Rain Chances:

We continue to look for development of a [storm complex] up to our northwest
tonight. This batch of showers and storms will make a run at us by
Saturday morning, but most of the system will break up as it
encounters dry and stable air in place across Middle Tennessee.
Still, we could have a few brief showers or sprinkles as the
remnants of the system cross the area Saturday morning and midday.
We do not expect any thunderstorms with this activity. The main
result will be some mid level clouds and very brief light showers
that should not have much if any impact on outdoor events. read more

Good morning. Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible today and tonight with all modes possible. Flash flooding, tornadoes, damaging straight line wind and large hail.

Timing: This is especially difficult to communicate. Some may see multiple severe storms today. Some may see only one or just one nearby. It depends on many factors, many of which aren’t being handled well in the models today. This is not a one and done event and will likely last about 24 hours. read more