As I write this, a cold front is arriving, scattering a few isolated showers across both counties, moving from west to east. This hit-or-miss activity may linger for a few hours. The HRRR model continues to show it:
Next Rain Events: Tuesday Night/Wednesday, & Sunday/Monday
More Rain Today? Cooler Week Ahead, & Next Weekend’s Guess.
How Much Rain Did We Get?
A total of 1.06″ fell in the official rain can at BNA from yesterday’s rain.
Local CoCoRaHS observer totals in Davidson County:
And Williamson County:
Radar Estimated Storm Total Rainfall, which isn’t that reliable for raw totals, but it has a good idea of who got the most rain. Green is less than 1″ and yellow is more than 1″:
Storms Ending, Let’s Go Preds!
Sunday and Beyond
Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will remain possible through Sunday afternoon. The severe weather threat will be next to nothing.
Our pattern will be to trend cooler through the week, especially towards next weekend. Uncertainty exists about a potential rain/storm maker on Wednesday.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Effect Until 10:00PM
Probabilities of Severe Threats
To report severe weather, use the hashtag #tSpotter to send your photos/information to NashSevereWx and the National Weather Service.
Most of Saturday Looks Good, Rain Most Likely Saturday Night, Rainout Alert Sunday
So when’s it going to rain this weekend?
Let’s start by saying it’s very probably going to rain this weekend. And very probably a lot.
Thru Sunday night, the Euro model predicts 0.5″ to 0.7″, which is more than enough to rain out most anything. The GFS model is running higher totals, between 1.0″ and 1.1″. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has even more, taking the totals closer to 2″.
Hopefully Dry Tonight, More Showers/Thunderstorms Tomorrow
Dry Tonight? Showers and Thunderstorms Return Saturday and Sunday
Today has turned out to be a fairly nice today some sunshine and highs in the 80s. Luckily, showers have stayed, for the most part, confined to our north which has been great news for those with outdoor plans.
Hot For A Little Longer, Stormy Few Days Ahead
Continued Storm Chances This Week
Let’s see what the latest GFS has to show for more storms into the weekend:
NWS Nashville is in close agreement with this scenario, which means afternoon thunderstorms are possible every day through Saturday. By Sunday, an approaching cold front will significantly increase rain and storm opportunities. Most of us could see 0.5″ of total rain, with higher amounts around 1.25″+ definitely possible.
Hot For A Little Longer, Stormy Few Days Ahead
Unsettled Next Few Days
Latest HRRR Model for Today
Continued Storm Chances This Weekend
Let’s see what this morning’s run of the GFS has to show for more storms into the weekend:
NWS Nashville is in close agreement with this scenario, which means afternoon thunderstorms are possible every day through Saturday. By Sunday, an approaching cold front will significantly increase rain and storm opportunities. Most of us could see 0.5″ of total rain, with higher amounts around 1.25″+ definitely possible.
What about severe weather? A strong storm or two over the course of the next several days isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Hail and gusty winds will be the main threats, but definitely nothing like the Central Plains is seeing today (potential severe weather outbreak).
The good news for Sunday and beyond…temperatures in the afternoon next week will sink back into the 70s! This is more seasonable and provides us some relief, as we aren’t even into summer quite yet.
5-Day Pollen.com Forecast
More Sunshine Tomorrow, Shower Chances Return by Friday
A Few Clouds Tomorrow, Mostly Sunny Skies
Expect for tomorrow to be a repeat of today with mostly sunny skies, highs in the upper 80s, and gusty winds at times.
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Shower Chances Increase Late Thursday Evening Through the Weekend
After our fairly dry stretch of days, we look to fall back into a somewhat wet pattern starting late Thursday night. The latest run of the GFS, shown below, displays these shower chances through the weekend.
More Hot Days, Rain Chances Increase This Weekend
Air Quality Alert
Watching For Late Week Heat Relief (Rain/Storms)
Expect much of the same hot conditions for the next couple of days, with the exception of Thursday and beyond, when temperatures could drop into the 80s due to cloud cover. We will start to feel the effects of additional moisture as dew points rise into the 60s. A chance for a spot shower or storm will start Thursday and continue into Saturday.
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