Happy Thanksgiving!
Enjoy the weather while it lasts this week. Temperatures today expected to top out around 60°. Partly cloudy skies will prevail this afternoon, so any outdoor plans you have today won’t be affected by the weather.
Pleasant Thanksgiving Day into the Weekend. Potential for Some Mixed Precip Sunday and Monday
Watching for Unlikely PM Storms Today, Mixed Precip Chances/Cold Early Next Week
Sunshine Incoming
As of 1:00 pm, a cold front is moving east through west TN. The widespread clouds we’ve seen so far today are also moving east, leaving us with what could be a partly sunny afternoon.
In some scenarios, this would destabilize the air above our heads enough to create damage-making severe weather. However, today, the general mood of computer models and forecasters is somewhat chill.
Rain This Morning, Possible Storms w/ Low Probability Damaging Wind/Tornado Threat This Afternoon.
So far so good. Just rain this morning. We think the strong/severe threat — while pretty low — will be late this afternoon.
Here’s the radar before 8 AM:
The wind is howling. A Wind Advisory remains effective, BNA gusted to 38 MPH and a 40+ MPH gust is possible today.
It’s Not Time To Panic/Party but Behold a Blog about Tornado and Snow Chances.
NWS-Nashville writes a technical long form forecast discussion twice a day, every day, 365 days a year. In some years 366 days a year. One is published sometime between 2 AM and 4 AM, another 12 hours later. These long form discussions cover the next seven days. NWS-Nashville is the essential weather infrastructure in Middle Tennessee. Without them, the entire weather enterprise collapses. #Thanksgiving.
Inversions and Instability: A Look at Damaging Wind & Tornado Potential Wednesday.
A cool, pleasant day ahead with high temperatures reaching low to mid 60’s and mostly sunny skies.
It’s a bit breezy today with a south wind at 10-15 mph gusting as high as 20 mph.
Rain and Storms Wednesday: Severe Weather Possible.
A warm front will lift across Middle Tennessee early Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system will move north of Middle Tennessee late Tuesday night into Wednesday, dragging a cold front through our area by Wednesday night. This sets up a rain and potential strong/severe storm event.
Mo Instability Mo Problems, No Instability No Problems.
36° expected Tuesday morning. Many of us will hit freezing around sunrise. But you’re not here for a temp forecast.
SPC hasn’t updated their storm outlook for Wednesday’s potential storm event since this morning. The next update is due Tuesday morning at 1 AM.
Severe Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday
We’ll hit 36° at BNA early Tuesday morning, many of us will be colder so expect frost and a few hours of freezing Tuesday morning. Clouds and a south wind will warm us up Tuesday as we watch the next storm system expected Wednesday.
Rain Today, Cold Tonight & Monday, More Rain (Storms?) Mid-Week.
Rain Incoming
Radar as of 10:22 AM:
You can check updated radar scans here.
The HRRR model predicts rain this afternoon. It looks like it’s predicting more rain than we see coming on radar:
The rain should end around dark. HRRR model is showing about 0.4″ or so (below), but expect less than that. NWS-Nashville expects about 0.25″.
Rain Sunday, Slight Cooldown Next Week
Clouds will begin to make their way into the area this morning.
We should be looking at dry conditions through this afternoon, but can’t rule out a stray shower popping up in your backyard. High of 70. Saturday is forecasted to be the nicest of the weekend.
Plan Outdoor Weekend Activities for Saturday. Rain Sunday.
Friday and Saturday: Warm-ish & Sunny-ish
Sun will prevail this morning before some clouds move in this afternoon. You can see them hanging out over West Tennessee in this morning’s satellite imagery:
Winds may pick up to 10-15 mph today.
High temperatures will approach 70º. This will be closer to the record (78º) than it will be to the average:
You must be logged in to post a comment.