Rainy Day Today, Severe Threat Wednesday

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The rainy morning we’ve been seeing so far is almost done – for now.

The HRRR shows this system moving out of our area between 4 and 5pm, and we’ll have a rain-free rest of our evening.

Wednesday

Tomorrow we’ll get round 2. HRRR shows this second system moving in around 7am. The main line will pass before lunchtime, but more pop-ups will be around for the remainder of the day. With these popups, some may be just light drizzle, others may be strong severe thunderstorms. Instability and shear are present, so these storms have the potential to be severe, and we cannot completely rule out tornadoes. read more

Rain Tomorrow; Possible Severe Storms Wednesday

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We are warming up nicely today to the low 70s. This is right around average for this time of year. These temps teeter totter in between the upper 60s and low 70s for the first half of the work week.

If you’ve been sneezing because of the yellow stuff on your car, rain is on its way. Some of us may see some light sprinkles throughout today associated with shortwave trough. No threats with these sprinkles and no need to cancel any plans. read more

Sunny Today & Tomorrow; Rain and Maybe a Few Storms Tuesday & Wednesday

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The weekend will closeout nice. Temps in the mid 60’s, sunshine, and no rain. Perfect day to get outside, unless you have allergies. Pollen = yikes.

Monday will be similar to today. Sunny with slightly warmer temps. The GFS model thinks we could get a shower or two tomorrow night. I wouldn’t count on it, but if it were to occur it will be brief and shouldn’t ruin any plans. read more

Examining “it’s a three out of five weather day tomorrow oh noes,” what it means and what it does not mean, alt. title: respirating into a paper bag

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  1. WINDY. A storm line will arrive Wednesday night, but before that, south winds will howl 20-30 MPH and could gust over 40 MPH. Then when the storm line comes through those winds may briefly intensify and blow from the west/southwest so maybe yeah, tie down your things unless you want them in your neighbor’s yard.
  2. RANT ABOUT /OH NOES IT’S GONNA BE A THREE OUT OF FIVE/. You may have seen/heard breathless exclamations “it’s a THREE out of FIVE” threat based on the below SPC map. It is factually true on the SPC scale this is a 3 of 5 but that is like saying “the Titans are playing an NFL team tomorrow” and getting scared for no good reason — the Titans could be playing any NFL team. For example, Jacksonville (they suck, why worry because /checks notes/ they’re the Jaguars). Or, the Bengals (ruh roh, they are now featuring a competent offensive line and they franchise tagged their interception-making safety). Or, the Colts (whose QB carousel landed on 37 year old Matt Ryan so if the Titans were ever down 28-3 are we worried yet). The point is “three out of five” is like saying “an NFL team is coming to Nissan,” you don’t know whether to be concerned until you hear/read more about the opponent. (Note I considered using a Broadway play analogy but I am uncultured and would have made a mistake ranking the plays, although for sure The Scarlet Pimpernel would have been bottom).

3. TIMING. A squall line is going to come speeding through here probably early evening Wednesday night. “7-8 PM” is NWS-Nashville’s thought which seems about right to me (HRRR model agrees, below) tho that ETA could wiggle earlier or later than that, so look for an update (changes?) tonight and tomorrow. read more