Nashville Severe Weather

TONIGHT – OVERNIGHT – WEDS MORNING

• Scattered rain will be off and on late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Lightning and gusty winds possible. Not worried about tornadoes and not worried about severe straight line winds. Here’s the HRRR model through noon Weds:

• We’re watching for flood potential for this rain tonight – Wednesday morning. That concern is mostly W and NW of us. Yes we got a lot of rain in the last 24 hours. It wouldn’t take much more to push creeks and streams back up. But this doesn’t look like enough rain to raise overnight/morning flood concerns. We’ll see. There’s a Flash Flood Watch just to our west and northwest.

SEVERE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT WEST WEDNESDAY

1. Quiet Wednesday afternoon.
2. West of us, during the day Wednesday, a significant severe weather event will be ongoing.

SEVERE SYSTEM GETS HERE . . . BUT HOW BAD WILL IT BE?

• That significant severe event will congeal into one or maybe two lines. It will move east into Davidson and Williamson Counties. ETA could be as early as 6 PM. It could be as late as just after midnight Wednesday night.
• The initial line should carry the primary severe storm threat because it would arrive with the highest CAPEs and shear.
• So if there are two lines, the first would arrive here late afternoon/early evening and carry the higher straight line wind, hail, and tornado threat. If a second line comes in behind it closer to midnight it would be primarily for damaging straight line winds (tornado less likely with the second line because the first line will have used up the main source of storm fuel).
• Or, it’s possible there will just be one big ole line. Here’s what the HRRR shows, just one line, with a 9-10 PM arrival.

• The initial (only?) line will deliver probabilities for damaging straight line winds (30% probability within 25 miles of you), large hail (5% probability within 25 miles of you), and tornadoes (5% probability within 25 miles of you). Flooding is also possible but the line should move quickly enough to reduce the probability of a significant flash flooding event.
• The above run of the HRRR shows the line weakening — perhaps weakening significantly — as it arrives here 9-10 PM. That would be outstanding if it happens. But if the line arrives earlier (closer to 6-7 PM), it should be tapping more storm fuel and be stronger. Models have been going back and forth on an early evening vs late evening event. Either could happen.
• Know today where your safe space will be tomorrow night. Do not leave yourself uninformed, vulnerable, and far from shelter should a warning be issued. Questions? This link may help.
• This forecast may change, especially the timing, so check our Twitter and other reliable sources of information for updated/new information.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission. read more

Most, if not all of the rain has moved out for today. One flood advisory remains at press time, Whites Creek near Bordeaux. Many creeks are high right now, take extra caution if you live or work by one. Turn around don’t drown. read more

A wet, weather-filled week is ahead of us. Two rounds of potential severe weather are coming our way this week. Starting off with today:

Storms Later Today

Showers persist today with a small break in rain this afternoon for some of us. HRRR model below has strong storms coming into our area after sunset. These continue into the overnight hours and should be out of our area by Tuesday morning. read more

Sunday will be warm and sunny. A little breezy, too. Perfect day to get outside, enjoy it because rain is coming.

Monday will bring on and off rain showers and storms. Classic spring weather. Expect more “off” than “on” rain. Nothing severe is expected. There could be some lightning and thunder, but that’s it. ETA looks to be just before lunchtime. See HRRR below: read more

We will continue to see scattered showers for the rest of the day. Some sleet and graupel has fallen in some part.

Some rumbles of thunder are possible with a few of these storms, but nothing to be concerned about. As temps drop, some of these showers could be a little winter-y, but this is mostly to our East read more

Temps down a good bit from yesterday. Mostly quiet today except for maybe an inconsequential PM shower or two.

Chances for rain go up tomorrow. Scattered showers throughout the day. No strong/severe storms expected… Can’t rule out the occasional rumble of thunder. Not much accumulation expected with this system. No flooding concerns here. read more

Threat of severe weather is low all-around for our area. Best chance east of I-65.

Latest SPC outlooks reflect the downward trend in severe probabilities. No more tornado/hail outlook, just wind (and barely)… 5% probability of damaging thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of you: read more

The rainy morning we’ve been seeing so far is almost done – for now.

The HRRR shows this system moving out of our area between 4 and 5pm, and we’ll have a rain-free rest of our evening.

Wednesday

Tomorrow we’ll get round 2. HRRR shows this second system moving in around 7am. The main line will pass before lunchtime, but more pop-ups will be around for the remainder of the day. With these popups, some may be just light drizzle, others may be strong severe thunderstorms. Instability and shear are present, so these storms have the potential to be severe, and we cannot completely rule out tornadoes. read more