Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with the main threat being damaging winds. Hail and a few brief tornadoes are possible as well, but chances are low. Localized flash flooding will also be possible for areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain today.
Rain ETA as early as Wednesday night, but bet on a Thursday rain ETA. Right now outdoor events Wednesday night look safe.
Very little good high res data available between hours 60 and 90, which is how many hours we are from this event. Thankful for Euro model 90 hour data which suggests rain arriving sometime middle of the day Thursday and lasting Thursday night into the overnight hours. But one run of one model is no way to plan life, so expect updates/changes/refinements to this prophesy.
The main line of storms will move out of the area this morning and leave us with a mostly cloudy and wet end of our work week. Rain chances diminish in the afternoon, but still hanging around enough to potentially see a small shower or two, but definitely not a washout. We will reach near 81º for the high. Dewpoint values will be in the mid 60s so it is going to be a pretty muggy and sticky one out there this afternoon. This evening will remain mostly dry, still with a chance of seeing a small shower into the overnight hours. Temperatures will drop down to around 64º.
Warm and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, some of which may be strong to severe this afternoon. Here is what the NWS says:
Shear will be on the weak side since we won`t be dealing with a surface low, but even 30 kts of bulk shear, coupled with around 7.0 deg/km mid-level lapse rates, could provide some isolated strong to severe storms later this afternoon. Nothing widespread, but it will be necessary to keep an eye to the sky if you have outdoor plans this afternoon and early this evening
High pressure to our east means south winds bringing return-to-summer temperatures.
A frontal boundary sets up bringing daily chances for showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm beginning late Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but a few strong storms are possible in spots.
