Increasing clouds and 70° this afternoon.
Rain begins to push in from the West and South early Tuesday morning hours. The NAM3 model thinks rain will last all day. Nothing severe, just gloomy and soggy.
Sunday (today): Dry, sunny, high of 71°, 15 MPH winds with gusts as high as 25 MPH.
Monday: Copy and paste Sunday, but with a high of 69° and a light breeze.
This is perfect weather if you ask me.
Both the EURO and GFS models agree it’ll rain on Tuesday. While rain is expected to begin Tuesday morning, the good news it that it will move out by Tuesday evening/night.
Tonight’s severe weather threat is over. We really dodged a bullet with only a couple severe thunderstorm warnings.
As it passes, and we all head to bed, we’ll lose the threat of severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch that includes both counties, Davidson and Williamson until 4:00 a.m.
These are the probabilities of “x” happening anywhere in the tornado watch area. There is a 50% chance of 2 or more tornadoes in the watch area and a 30% chance of 1 or more strong tornadoes. See the table below for more info.
Storms are coming.
Strong surface winds blowing from the southwest will gradually increase late this morning and this afternoon. Winds will transport humid air, fueling storms later. No rain or storms expected early/mid afternoon.
Clouds today could limit our sunshine, but you’ll still get your fair share of it this afternoon. 84° for the high. That’s nearly 20 degrees above average for us for this time of year.
Humidity is way up, dewpoints in the low 60s. For the first time this year we have to drag out the dewpoint/humidity translator:
Thursday: Sunny, high of 81°, southerly winds of 5-15 MPH with gusts as high as 20 MPH.
Friday: Some clouds move in, dry, high of 83°.
Overall, a great end to the week.
Saturday starts off dry, but the chance of rain increases later into the afternoon and evening.
It’s cloudy. We hope to see these clouds disappear by this afternoon. Right now, this is what satellite looks like.
You can see these low clouds hanging over us. If I could animate this, you would see these clouds beginning to erode to our east.
The tornado watch originally set to expire at 10:00 p.m. was canceled early as the line of storms has moved east. We have been watching a warm front to our south all day to see if it would move far enough north to send severe storm food up into our two counties. The front just couldn’t get far enough north to accomplish this, and to that, we say…”fine with us.”
A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 PM for Williamson County, not Nashville (not Davidson County).
The warm front we’ve been talking about all day isn’t expected to make it to Nashville/Davidson County. The storms got here early/mid afternoon, and removed any fuel storms later could use to power up. No guarantees, but I think this will be a non-event in Nashville/Davidson County. But we could still see heavy rain, thunderstorms, even some small hail, but the tornado concern is nah.
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