Windy! Wind Advisory Until 10PM
…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING…
* TIMING…through 10 pm CDT this evening
* WINDS…sustained breezy winds of 15 to 25 mph…with gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible
Noticeably Windy, Chilly, and Showery
Scattered Showers Overnight into the Morning Hours Tomorrow
The Tornado Watch For Our Area Has Been Cancelled. For the Rest of the Evening…
We have been removed from the tornado watch, and essentially all of the storms have run off to our east. While we still can not rule out a shower or two through the evening, we should not see any type of severe weather.
Tornado Watch Through 9 PM Tonight. Wind Advisory Through 7 AM Tomorrow.
A tornado watch has been issued for both Davidson and Williamson Counties until 9 PM tonight.
Below is a detailed discussion about the watch issuance:
A detailed breakdown of the severe weather probabilities is listed below.
Biggest Threat Shifting Bit Further East, But Don’t Ignore It! ETA 2-6 PM.
Severe weather is possible today, although the risk seems to be shifting further east.
A higher risk to the east doesn’t mean you should ignore the risk here. Risk area may be wrong. Storms don’t care where we draw these lines.
Low Probability, High Impact (Winds, Hail, maybe a Tornado) Threat Tomorrow
Storms are brewing tomorrow. They could be significant, damaging storms, but the forecast has uncertainties.
For a detailed breakdown from Charlie Neese, watch the Periscope he did at 8:30 PM tonight.
Rising Concern Over Wednesday’s Severe Weather Potential
The lunchtime update from the Storm Prediction Center said the word “outbreak.” That’s not good. SPC mostly refers to the area to our south and southeast, and although our risk here isn’t as high as it is elsewhere, it still poses a very real, but conditional and uncertain, threat. Another update is not due from the SPC until after we go to bed
Severe Threat Has Shifted a Bit West (uh-oh); Yet Big Uncertainties Remain.
We will approach 80° today as southern winds pump warm, moist air into Middle Tennessee.
Storms are brewing tomorrow. They could be significant, damaging storms, but the forecast has uncertainties.
Rising Concern Over Wednesday’s Severe Weather Potential
The lunchtime update from the Storm Prediction Center said the word “outbreak.” That’s not good. Mostly, their “outbreak” reference refers to the area to our south and southeast, but they are not discounting that here.
Severe Weather Possible Wednesday
Update: Will requested more cowbell in this blog post, so.
As Phil Collins Would Sing…
“…I can feel it comin’ in the air tonight…”
One more day of calm, warm weather before another severe storm maker rolls through the southeast. Today you may notice a slight breeze from the south. This is Mother Nature getting to work on hotter temps and more moisture for our area.
Some Storms This Evening, Another Chance on Wednesday
Low Risk of Severe Storms This Evening
Storms moving in tonight have a low chance of becoming severe this evening. *If* they do, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center sees this as a low end threat and has placed us in probability of 5% of hail/damaging winds.
Rainy Monday Morning; Storms Possible Wednesday
Monday Rain; Rainout Appears Likely
It is going to rain Monday.
We think it’ll start in the morning.
The HRRR model predicts rain will start in the wee hours of Monday morning and last through the morning rush hour:
The GFS model agrees. It predicts a lot of rain in the morning.
Rain Monday; Storm Potential Wednesday
Warmer Sunday
Surface high pressure will move east today. This means south winds and warmer temps, about 10° to 15° higher than yesterday. Some clouds will be mixed in.
Clouds increase tonight ahead of the next rain system, due tomorrow.
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