Today
Seasonable, cooler temperatures have arrived in middle Tennessee, FINALLY! We are looking at a high of 77º in the city as clouds being to clear out and the additional sun is introduced into the forecast.
Fall-Like Temperatures Finally Arrive, Looking at Rain Chances Next Week
Rain Moves Out Today; Dry, Pleasant Weekend, Watching Rain Chances Next Week
Last round of rain for a few days! The rain-making cold front will be hurried along to the east as a surface high builds in – see HRRR below.
Between cloud cover, rain-cooled air, and cooler temps at the surface, high temps today will reach the upper 60s. Yes, you read that right!
Our overnight low will settle into the upper 50s. An excess of surface moisture, cooler temps and calm overnight winds could lead to early morning fog.
Friday & Saturday
Models have the weekend looking dry. Increased sunshine could bounce high temps on Friday back into the upper 70s. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s.
Same story on Saturday: partly cloudy skies, high temps in the upper 70s. Afternoon/evening plans look great!
Watching for Rain Next Week
Measurable rain chances will return to Nashville on Monday afternoon. South winds will return, bringing increased moisture and warmer temperatures by the midweek.
NWS Nashville’s thoughts on the warm pattern next week:
"Temperatures in the low to mid 80s should do it each afternoon Sun- Thu...with overnight lows in the mid 60s. All in all, next week is not a washout with time in between the raindrops to enjoy a comfortably warm weather pattern."
Rain Tapering Off Today, Cooler Weather This Weekend, Watching Rain for Next Week
The party is premature. Our transition to a fall airmass is currently underway *only at the surface" — aloft, summer/tropical/wet is hanging on. This jerk "overrunning" pattern means rain should redevelop Thu morning and may not end until tomorrow night. /ducks/ pic.twitter.com/NTNRaWUmzN
Some More Rain Today in this Tropical Airmass; Cold Front Tomorrow; Cooler Late Wednesday and Thursday!
It’s still exceptionally humid. Dewpoints are in the low 70°s. That’s:
And here comes another wave of moisture through our area.
The HRRR model (see below) thinks rain will move through late this afternoon. The atmosphere does have energy stored up, and with a slight increase in wind shear just to the north of Nashville, a few strong storms could be in the mix. Yet the stronger storms should be pretty far north of us.
Flash Flood Watch Expired, One More Shot of Rain (Likely Wednesday AM)
The Flash Flood Watch expired at 7 PM tonight.
Rain slowly moving east. "The Flash Flood Watch that's in effect will be allowed to expire at 7pm as the threat for flooding across much of the area decreases. However, rainfall will continue off and on throughout the day on Tuesday." —@NWSNashville
Flash Flood Watch Until 7 PM Monday
A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect until 7 PM Monday.
NWS-Nashville explains:
Models are indicating another batch of heavy rain and storms moving across the area tonight and tomorrow, and with the ground now wet and saturated flooding will become more likely with any additional rainfall.
Rain!
Mid-level water vapor infrared imagery shows moisture streaming in from Arkansas and West Tennessee.
Radar looked like this as of 8:30 AM:
It’s going to rain more today.
This morning, in its Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS-Nashville wrote “there is low confidence on the exact location of the heaviest rain, [but] training storms will increase the flooding risk.”
Rainy First Day of Fall; Wet, But Cooler Week Ahead
We’ve seen a few showers across the midstate this morning as a surface front has settled in right over Tennessee. This will be our main rainmaker through the weekend and into next week.
Widespread cloud cover will knock our high temps down into the upper 70s, with a low temps in the upper 60s. That a drastic improvement from this past week.
Rainy, Humid Weekend Ahead, but Don’t Cancel All Plans
Rojoice! Today is the last day temperatures will hit 90º in the foreseeable future.
Clouds and moisture are arriving ahead of a cold front. That front will show up late tonight or in the wee hours of Saturday morning, slow down and maybe stall out, all setting off a wet, unstable weather weekend where rain chances are definitely there, but there is no real good idea when they’ll arrive, how long they’ll stay, and where exactly they will be.
Unseasonably Hot Temperatures on the Way Out, Dodging Weekend Rain, Cooler Temps on the Horizon
Keep the water close by today. We are headed for a high of 96º in Nashville. This is 10º+ above average for the middle of September. Dew points will remain high causing it to feel like the triple digits outside. Bottom line, today is going to feel awful for late September.
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