One weather model, the HRRR, thinks heavy rain and thunderstorms will arrive around 4 PM (give or take a few hours).
The HRRR model thinks these storms may be strong or severe, however, this model may be overstating the severity of the storms (below see HRRR model which expects 1,161 j/kg of surface based CAPE to fuel a pretty big storm or two; this high amount of storm fuel seems unrealistic given the cloud cover, so HRRR may be predicting the storms to be worse than they’ll actually be).
The HRRR model predicts storms Wednesday morning around the AM commute, around 5-7 AM:
Other models think morning rain and storms are possible, but prefer to keep them south and east of us. ETAs may vary.
No rain today, high 60°.
Rain comes tonight, after midnight. A few rumbles of thunder and/or a downpour might wake you up tonight; hail the main concern. No tornado or strong wind concerns.
Hail up to 1″ in diameter is remotely possible, mainly south of I-40 in the dark green shaded area. The probability of a big ole hailstone falling within 25 miles of those in the green shaded area is 5%.
High temperatures today (Sunday) will reach 54° with mostly cloudy skies.
Monday looks the same but with a high of 64°.
This is a nice break after the very windy and rainy weather we had yesterday.
… and there is no end in sight (just kidding, but it may feel like it). A few active weather patterns look to bring the chance of rain to the area all week.
It has been quite the busy morning at our three locations around Williamson county. We’ve had computers reboot mid livestream, staggering wind and rain, and internet that decided to take a break. But, most of us dodged damage with this line of storms.
A Tornado Watch has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center, in coordination with our local NWS-Nashville office.
The Watch expires at 1 PM today.
The Watch was issued to let everyone know an approaching storm line may pack 60+ MPH winds and/or spin up a tornado or two.
It’s stupid warm for second week of January but no one wore a skirt today. No one will wear one tomorrow. The wind’s been too strong. Modesty lives.
I saw on Twitter there’s a Wind Advisory for Friday night and Saturday. Winds may gust 30 MPH, 40 MPH, maybe as much as 50 MPH. Those Advisories talk about trees and power but when I see them Hashtag pants, make your daddy proud.
We’re going to have on and off rain throughout your Friday afternoon and into the evening hours. Hold onto your hats if you have any plans this evening as winds will continue to gust up to 30-40mph. Here’s the latest HRRR model, not all of us will see rain this afternoon and evening, but some will.
15 to 20 MPH winds with gusts as high as 30 MPH. Secure hats and lightweight aunts.
It’ll be windy Friday and especially Saturday.
The GFS model shows light, scattered showers late Friday, with the heaviest rain and storms sweeping through Saturday afternoon:
Gusts up to 30 mph possible.
What’s up is a cold front coming through late Saturday night. Watch the cold air race in at the end of the Euro model below:
Before the cold front: rain Friday, heavy rain and storms – possibly severe – Saturday.
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