New Storm Threats/Risks for Wednesday; More Storm Chances Late Thursday/Early Friday.
Tuesday, March 17, 2020 · David
Rain today should pull out before 4 PM, but clouds linger.
Wednesday Storms
Up to 74F Wednesday. A stiff south breeze will transport moisture, while energy passing through sets off another round of off and on rain and maybe some thunderstorms throughout Wednesday.
HRRR model Wednesday 7 AM until Midnight Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms possible, mostly in the afternoon/evening. Notice the HRRR model above. Storms are stronger north of Nashville. Storm Prediction Center issued a 2% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of everyone north of I-40:
SPC also introduced a 5% probability of damaging winds just north of I-40 for storms Wednesday, ETA afternoon/evening:
Depending on how you map it (we’re splitting hairs now), the risk includes Davidson County north of Briley Parkway:
We will be:
Low probability, high impact events happen infrequently. You live here, or you’re visiting here, therefore grats, you’ve signed a social contract that requires your regular, glancing attention at changing, low probability of high impact weather conditions.
Current anxiety level low. Future anxiety level [subject to change].
Late Thursday – Friday Storms
Warm, off and on rain again Thursday.
Sometime late Thursday night, overnight, or Friday morning here comes a heavy rain line packing a few storms.
Behold the Euro model.
Models remain unsure what this line will do. SPC hasn’t really outlooked us one way or another, it appears they consider this a “day 4” (Friday) storm on the assumption the ETA will be after 6 AM Friday, which seems reasonable. Timing, threats, and risks will be adjusted tomorrow. Data resolution will improve tomorrow.
For now this looks like a soaking rain event, plenty of wind energy/shear to rotate storms, but insufficient instability to raise real concerns.
More about this tomorrow.
Colder Weekend
