New Storm Threats/Risks for Wednesday; More Storm Chances Late Thursday/Early Friday.

Rain today should pull out before 4 PM, but clouds linger.

Wednesday Storms

Up to 74F Wednesday. A stiff south breeze will transport moisture, while energy passing through sets off another round of off and on rain and maybe some thunderstorms throughout Wednesday.

HRRR model Wednesday 7 AM until Midnight Wednesday night.

Thunderstorms possible, mostly in the afternoon/evening. Notice the HRRR model above. Storms are stronger north of Nashville. Storm Prediction Center issued a 2% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of everyone north of I-40:

SPC also introduced a 5% probability of damaging winds just north of I-40 for storms Wednesday, ETA afternoon/evening:

Depending on how you map it (we’re splitting hairs now), the risk includes Davidson County north of Briley Parkway:

We will be:

Low probability, high impact events happen infrequently. You live here, or you’re visiting here, therefore grats, you’ve signed a social contract that requires your regular, glancing attention at changing, low probability of high impact weather conditions.

Current anxiety level low. Future anxiety level [subject to change].

Late Thursday – Friday Storms

Warm, off and on rain again Thursday.

Sometime late Thursday night, overnight, or Friday morning here comes a heavy rain line packing a few storms.

Behold the Euro model.

Models remain unsure what this line will do. SPC hasn’t really outlooked us one way or another, it appears they consider this a “day 4” (Friday) storm on the assumption the ETA will be after 6 AM Friday, which seems reasonable. Timing, threats, and risks will be adjusted tomorrow. Data resolution will improve tomorrow.

For now this looks like a soaking rain event, plenty of wind energy/shear to rotate storms, but insufficient instability to raise real concerns.

More about this tomorrow.

Colder Weekend