Saturday
Some areas have already gotten wet today and scattered showers and storms will continue throughout the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front moves through the area. They should be heading out before midnight.
Rain Continuing Today, Cool Down to Start August
Rainy Forecast for a Couple More Days, Followed by a Pleasant Beginning-Of-August “Cool” Down
Friday Afternoon Rain Raises Localized Flooding Concerns
More showers will move through our area this afternoon, bringing an additional half inch to inch of rain. Localized flooding is the biggest concern today. Take a look at the amount of rain that has fallen in the past day in Davidson and Williamson counties, through 7am this morning:
Rain Today, with a Few Storms. Atmosphere May Support a Few Rotating Storms. Flooding, Damaging Winds, Tornado Risks Discussed.
At 10 AM a heavy rainstorm was moving across Nashville south of I-40 and all of Will Co. This morning’s weather balloon showed over 2″ of precipitable water content, setting us up for Day 1 of what should be a soggy trio of days ahead.
More Rain On The Way. Storms, Too.
Showers and storms will start to dot the radar this afternoon.
HRRR Model fires up storms just after noon and keeps them around a few hours after sunset.
Temperatures will still be in the low 90s but where showers do form, expect a brief cool off.
Chance of Storms this Afternoon, Stormy Week Ahead
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to make an appearance this afternoon.
HRRR model below is not showing great chances for Nashville this afternoon, but make no mistake. We’re all fair game for typical pop-up storms today. Storm organization will increase later in the week.
Scattered Storms Monday, Becoming More Organized Throughout the Week
Monday
We’re still following that typical summertime pattern: hot and humid with some afternoon storms.
The dew point will reach around 73° today. This will help those heat index values to get up into the upper 90s and possibly even 100 in some areas.
Scattered, Sunday Afternoon Storms. Wet Week Ahead.
Same forecast as the past several days: hot, humid, chance for mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms.
Will it rain at your bbq at 5PM? We simply don’t know. Someone’s bbq will probably get rained out at 5PM, but we can’t pinpoint exactly who will get it and when it will happen. Not in the summer.
Possibility for Plan-Altering Rain This Afternoon; A Cold Front Coming Our Way Next Week
Saturday: Be Aware of Heat Index and Scattered Thunderstorms
Same forecast. Again.
The dewpoint will hover around 72º all day, making for a heat index just under 100º.
Watch for scattered thunderstorms starting late morning and extending to sunset this evening. Predicting storm locations in the summer is near impossible, especially this far ahead of time. Here is the HRRR’s best estimate of where and when storms will arrive:
The Heat is Here to Stay, Storm Chances Slightly Lower for the Weekend
Friday
At 10 am, the heat index has already been recorded at 90° and the dew point at 72°.
Heat index values will be in the upper 90s today, but some places could see some feel-like temps of 100.
The dew point will stay in the lower 70s today, which could help to spark some showers and storms.
Morning Rain/Clouds Messing with Today’s Forecast, Looking Thru the Weekend, and Three Systems in the Tropics … Oh My!
Rain streaked by this morning north of I-40, with a few downpours south of I-40. Clouds were dragged along with it. This may wreck our rain/storm chances this afternoon.
Maybe.
Why?
Most summertime afternoon storms occur because of the heat-of-the-day. Cloud cover has kept the highs down, interrupting/delaying this storm-making process.
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