A line of rain has arrived. No severe weather/flooding concerns. Can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm here or there, but most will see just showers.
Showers transition into a wintry mix late tonight as temps dip to at/below freezing. Models are in pretty good agreement as far as precip type/accumulation goes. Not much more than a dusting expected for our area (less than a half inch).
Freezing fog has already formed early this morning. A dense freezing fog advisory is in effect until 9am this morning. Some extra time for your morning commute may be needed. Patchy black ice is still a road hazard to look out for this morning. Overpasses, areas of elevation and neighborhood/back roads can have hazards stay around longer due to slower melting. Temps get up to the high 40’s today so significant melting is on the way as we go throughout the day.
Temps get up to the mid 30’s today. Melting will be slow. Expect a refreeze tonight as temps dive into the low 20’s. This may continue dangerous road conditions into the morning commute tomorrow, especially in elevated areas and on secondary/neighborhood roads. Highs tomorrow in the upper 40’s will bring significant melting.
Snow should, this afternoon, fall atop the rainy, slushy, mixyfrizzy precip we got this morning. Will Co got way more of the frozen stuff than Nashville. Will Co was colder at the surface and aloft, and Will Co got the heaviest precip bands.
Rain should change to snow Sunday right around sunrise, or a few+ hours after sunrise, and when it does surface temps are probably going to be at or above freezing. HRRR thinks the temp’ll be around 34° to 35° as the snow is falling.
The Winter Storm Watch begins for all of Middle Tennessee tonight at 6 PM and ends Sunday at 6 PM.
Looks like rain today will pause for a few hours then resume tonight. Overnight into early Sunday morning it should changeover to a wintry mix, then snow. The snow will be a wet, heavy snow. Somewhere in Middle Tennessee it could lay down snowfall rates around 1″ to 2” an hour.
By the time all the good model data comes out it’ll be way past midnight. So much so I considered not writing this blog. But obviously I went ahead with it because we have some new, good models in, most notably the Was Causing Forecast Problems Earlier But Has Straightened Out HRRR.
Computer models are lacking consistency. Cold stuff will definitely be falling from the sky but we don’t know exactly what, where or how much. But, we have a forecast. Here we go:
A winter storm watch was issued this morning starting Saturday at 6 pm through Sunday at 6pm.
on presnow days like this I spend a few hours looking at models and reading forecast discussions. i do one other thing, and that’s trying to keep my brain brew cold, which means i’ll spend 15 minutes beating up my somehow iced over fridge icemaker, picking up the ice pieces that fall on the floor from all the pounding. i don’t mind admitting to you that when i am beating up the machine i am sometimes definitely cursing at it. the forecast and the ice machine are a mess.
Not much change to the forecast for today. More cloud coverage throughout the day plus some scattered sprinklers. Timing: this afternoon. Cooler and dry tomorrow with highs in the mid 40s. Look for wind chills to hang out below 40.
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