Clear Today, Rain Chance Saturday Night

Friday and Saturday – enjoy these warm temps and rain-free skies. Highs are in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s AKA capital S Spring weather.

The next weather event we’re watching is Saturday overnight into Sunday. HRRR shows some spotty storms arriving around midnight and clearing out by 7am. This means your Saturday evening plans should be good to go, as well as your Sunday plans!

See the HRRR below for a glimpse at possible timing. Some of these showers/storms can be heavy at times. For those concerned about severe weather, a few severe weather ingredients might be present, but we aren’t expecting anything widespread at this time.

There is a lot of uncertainty about this event, and it is still a bit early to fully rely on models for timing. As always, we will keep you updated!

Next week, we have several more chances or rain, and a cool down to more early spring-like temperatures.

Writer’s Note: This is my last blog for Nashville Severe, and I am so so so thankful for the opportunity to write for this past year. I appreciate every one of you who read and shared my blogs! Nashville will always have a special place in my heart. Special shoutout to David, Andrew and Will for sharing their knowledge with me and the rest of the interns! This year has been a blast and I have grown so much as a meteorologist and a writer. You can keep up with my journey by following me on Twitter @MerzEmily

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Cooler Temps Tonight; Unsettled Weather Coming

The cold front has moved past us, leaving us with much cooler temperatures this afternoon and evening. Temps drop into the lower 40s tonight. Maybe upper 30s in the outlying areas. Chilly air is back for a bit, but no freezing temperatures are in the forecast.

A surface ridge will be moving in Thursday, meaning warmer temps once again! However, following behind this warm weather is our next rain chance.

We’re looking at Friday for timing, and lasting through the weekend. At this time, there is no severe risk, but we are very far out. For now, plan on scattered rain chances from Friday morning through a good part of next week. Not 24/7 rain. Just an unsettled weather pattern with waves of rain/storms. Just as a general idea of the pattern, GFS illustrates (Friday 1:00 am – Wednesday 4:00 am). Make no assumptions on exact timing with this model.

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Warm Weekend!

We have an upper high hanging out that’s keeping us warm and dry this weekend! Temps will hit the lower 80s! Everybody say thank you upper high!

Next Week

Looking ahead to our next weather event Monday, we’ll have a cold front making its way through our area bringing cooler temps and some rain. The GFS shows us having a wet Monday. Keep in mind we’re a little far out to completely rely on the model’s timing/severity.

Current QPF in the NWS National Blend of Models estimates around half an inch. Flooding concerns would be minimal.

At this time, we do not think this will be a severe event, but we will keep you updated!

Possible Scattered Showers, then Warming Up!

Happy almost Friday! Showers have moved out, but it’s possible we might get a splash or two later.

Warm and sunny the rest of the weekend!

Our next weather event is shaping up to be Sunday night through Monday and even into Tuesday. Monday looks wet, but it’s a bit too far out to know the details yet. More to come in the coming blogs.

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Showers Today, Storm Threat Tonight

Throughout today, we’re expecting to see some scattered showers. Some of these individual clouds could drop some heavy rain and wind. No need to cancel daytime or dinner plans, but carry an umbrella in case the rain scatters on you.

Tonight

Editor’s Note: Let me say this. I have a big backyard party to attend tonight. My wife is going to see Garth with the girls from work. There is no one in the world who wants great weather tonight than me. However, we don’t always get what we want. [G, if you’re reading this, maybe a cover?]

The models are pretty much in agreement about the timing of some heavier storms. First timing, then strength.

Timing is consistent between runs of the HRRR, the 3km NAM, and the Hi-Res Euro. As early as 10, as late as 11 for the heaviest band of rain. Any rain to our N in Kentucky could spin off a few showers if the centers sag far enough south before this main line.

Below, our buddy the HRRR shows it entering our area between 10 p.m. – 11 p.m. Clearing out around by dawn. No reason NOT to believe it. It’s well initiated and at this range has a good track record.

Severity… In the morning AFD, the forecaster mentioned a rise in precipitable water values. Any storm you encounter will be likely heavy. Heavy enough to ruin your time if you were standing outside with an electric guitar strapped to your abdomen. Or watching someone standing outside with a… you know where I’m going.

There is instability and shear present with this system, however the CAPE values are low. HRRR shows CAPE never getting much further E than this… No Cape, No Problem.

Severe thunderstorm threat? Hardly. Lightning, maybe. Tornado threat? No evidence of that.

Our largest threats are heavy rain, strong winds. and ruined shoes. Be ready to get wet, especially toward the end of your evening plans, and get indoors if you hear thunder.

BTW I will not make a thunder rolls joke. I just won’t do that to the artist or to our readers.

Since this system is moving through overnight, it is important to have those weather radios on and wake-me-up apps ready to go just in case you need to move to your safe place. Always better to be prepared.

Feeling anxious about all of this weather we’ve been having? click here

The Rest of the Weekend

Our next rain chance might be Sunday night. Models are showing a surface low pressure system moving through around dinner time and clearing out early Monday morning. At this time we’re a little far out to know the details.

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Chilly and Rainy Friday

We will continue to see scattered showers for the rest of the day. Some sleet and graupel has fallen in some part.

Some rumbles of thunder are possible with a few of these storms, but nothing to be concerned about. As temps drop, some of these showers could be a little winter-y, but this is mostly to our East

If we do see any flurries, the ground is still too warm for any accumulation other than a light dusting on grass or elevated surfaces. Still use caution if you will be out driving tonight.

The rest of our weekend looks clear in terms of precipitation. Saturday night into Sunday morning we are expecting some freezing temps. If you have sensitive plants you will want to cover them. And to make things even weirder, we will reach the 70s again later in the day on Sunday, with those warm temps sticking around through next week.

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Rainy Day Today, Severe Threat Wednesday

The rainy morning we’ve been seeing so far is almost done – for now.

The HRRR shows this system moving out of our area between 4 and 5pm, and we’ll have a rain-free rest of our evening.

Wednesday

Tomorrow we’ll get round 2. HRRR shows this second system moving in around 7am. The main line will pass before lunchtime, but more pop-ups will be around for the remainder of the day. With these popups, some may be just light drizzle, others may be strong severe thunderstorms. Instability and shear are present, so these storms have the potential to be severe, and we cannot completely rule out tornadoes.

Our biggest threat is damaging winds, so make sure those garbage cans and outdoor furniture are put away so they won’t end up across town. The Storm Prediction Center has in the 5% chance of seeing strong, damaging winds within 25 miles of any point.

Tornadoes cannot be ruled out in this system. We are in the 2% probability section for seeing a tornado within 25 miles.

There are big questions surrounding whether we’ll see severe weather with this system. It’s entirely possible that the storms form east of us and race away. Even if storm ingredients are present, if we remain capped (thanks Ned), these storms won’t be able to launch. It’s also possible that storms do form over us.

But, nonetheless, be aware of the possibility and stay connected. Keep your NOAA Weather Radio and weather warning apps handy. Enable WEA alerts on your phone. Also, reference the “What to Do” page with other ideas. https://nashvillesevereweather.com/what-to-do/

Frost?

We’re not quite done with the cold yet. Could get frosty overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Tuck your sensitive plants in Saturday night.

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Severe Threat Wednesday

Today we’re going to warm up a bit from yesterday, with highs in the 70s.

Tomorrow, we are going to get WINDY. Gusts up to 45mph are possible all day, even before the thunderstorms move in. Today would be a great day to make sure any furniture, outdoor decorations, and garbage cans are all secured.

So what else are we expecting with this event? The Storm Prediction Center has us in an enhanced categorical risk.

We’re also in the 5% risk of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of any point. The risk increases to 30% for wind, which is our biggest threat at this time.

Tornado Outlook
Wind outlook

Keep in mind, even though our tornado risk is relatively low, this does not mean it is not possible. Also, do not underestimate the power of non-thunderstorm wind. This type of wind can knock down trees, damage fences and send your child’s trampoline across the neighborhood.

So when is all of this happening? The wind will be with us most of the day. As far as storms, HRRR thinks it will move into our area around 5 p.m, and move out by 11 p.m. There is a small second line following the main system, but as of now the HRRR has it mostly dissipating by the time it reaches us.

Limiting Factors

As with most of our severe weather scenarios, there are potential limiting factors that could mitigate how much (if any) severe weather we see here. The main limiting factor is the lack of CAPE in the models. This is the available energy that feeds the storms and can make the difference between a gusty storm and a severe damaging storm. Models, honestly, don’t show that much CAPE ’round here. HRRR illustrates:

12 HRRR 4:00 pm Wednesday – midnight

There’s energy there. But, it’s not terribly impressive.

The Nam 3km is even less impressed:

12z Nam3km Wednesday 5:00 pm – 11:00 pm

Could these models be incorrect and we get way more available energy? Sure. Could we get severe weather? Sure. But, our anxiety level is not out the roof. But, we’ll be watching it closely.

If you need pointers on how to prepare, click here: https://nashvillesevereweather.com/what-to-do/

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Isolated Showers Later

Today will be a little bit chilly, and these temps are going to stick around through the weekend. Temps will be close to freezing overnight.

Later tonight, we might see some light showers in our area. Nothing widespread, and nothing severe, the clouds are just sprinkling a little. Timing is around 9 p.m., and it will clear out around midnight.

Saturday, we are going to get a bit windy as a cold front makes its way through. We could see gusts up to 35mph. That night will be pretty cold, and we may see some freezing and frost. If you’ve started working on your garden, you might want to cover any sensitive plants.

Looking ahead to next week, we will warm up a bit. We might also see some rain Wednesday, but it’s still too far out to provide exact details.

Couple of Rounds of Storms Possible Friday, Maybe Severe

Today we’re expecting seasonal temps and a sunny day. It’s a go for all St Patty’s Day celebrations.

Starting tomorrow, we have another rain/storm chance, potentially two rounds. The HRRR shows round one of storms coming through around 8 a.m, and clearing out by noon. This timing may change as we get closer.

18z HRRR 5 am – Noon

Following this first system, there is a possibility of a second system, which could be in the form of supercells. This is where the severe risk is. The HRRR isn’t incredibly impressed with the coverage of these cells. But, where they do pop up, they could be strong to severe.

18z HRRR Model 3 pm though 9 pm

There is a lot of uncertainty revolving around whether we’ll be able to clear out after the morning round, then recharge the atmosphere to the point that storms would be sufficiently fed. With that caveat in place, though, the Storm Prediction Center believes the following probabilities are reasonable for the afternoon round of storms, if they occur. These are the probabilities (x) will occur within 25 miles of you.

Tornado = 5%

Damaging Straight-Line Winds = 15%

Large Hail at least 1 inch in diameter = 15%

One of the indices we’ll be watching is the Significant Tornado Parameter. This is a composite index of tornado making potential. It does not guarantee a tornado. It merely gives a glimpse of ingredients and how they could come together. It brings the highest concentration of ingredients through here in the 4-8pm timeframe.

18z HRRR SigTor 1pm-9pm

We’ll be watching radar closely tomorrow afternoon and evening. Remember, it is possible storms will not have the kick they need to launch. But, if they do, they could be strong to severe. We’ll keep you updated in the blog and over on Twitter.

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