Flash flooding is a low probability threat today (5% to 15%).
→MRMS radar estimates 1.5″ to almost 2″ fell over the past 24 hours in parts of Will Co and Nashville. CoCoRahs data shows measured precip, it shows around 0.5″ to 1.5″:
Rainfall amounts — as always — vary by neighborhood.
More heavy rain is incoming.
→Heaviest will be this afternoon, starting around lunch. HRRR model shows it coming north from Alabama and lasting a few hours:
Lightning and low probability damaging straight line winds are possible in this afternoon wave.
→Another wave should materialize around sunset and spread rain unequally through our area tonight. HRRR illustrates:
Think a few storms are possible in this evening wave but they should not be a problem. The afternoon wave will consume most of the storm fuel, leaving very little remaining for tonight’s storms.
Flood risk tonight is low. We should average 0.7″ total but some areas will for sure get more than others (who knows exactly where), and if we get an overperforming storm it may cause minor, brief, localized flooding. That should be all it is but it will be watched carefully today. So far there is nothing flood-alarming. Spacing out all this rain over a long period of time reduces flash flood concerns.
→Then two more rounds of rain/storms. The first Thursday morning through around lunchtime (again, severe unlikely, 5% damaging wind and/or hail threat) — the HRRR thinks we’ll clear out Thursday night but I’m not sold on that idea — and a second round Friday morning before it all finally moves east.
Several waves of rain means you should expect changes to the timing in this forecast. We’ll post those @NashSevereWx on Twitter which you can read on Twitter and/or on the tweets viewer here on this site.
→ Memorial Day weekend looks dry. Hotter each day.
Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs