Much cooler today. Tuesday, a warm front lifts in making things warmer and more humid.
Next rain and/or storm event is Wednesday – Thursday.
Timing. A few models put in rain/storms here Weds morning. But I think the most likely ETA for rain is Weds afternoon and night. ETD Thursday after lunch or so, tho we may see drizzlers linger into Thu late afternoon/evening.
The Euro model agrees with all this, not a steady/continuous rain, but also not a one and done:
ETA and ETD are estimated, check back for timing adjustments.
Rainfall Totals. Rain heaviest Weds night overnight into Thursday morning. This is a soaker, 1″ to 2″.
Rainfall rates do not appear to be heavy enough for flooding, but if this verifies expect rollyball field rainouts Weds and probably also Thursday.
Bad Storms? Strong/Severe storms are possible during the Weds afternoon/evening main event — damaging winds and hail are the hazards. This hazard is conditional with low probability. SPC has us in its 5% probability for a severe event within 25 miles of us. Tornado? Meh/nah.
A cold front comes in Thursday and whacks the temps and humidity back down.
“Memorial Day weekend looks to be rain-free and increasingly warmer, with highs returning to around 90 degrees by Monday.” –NWS-Nashville.
Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs