July was kind enough to give us one day below 90°. It looks like there is a good possibility we finish July with all but one day (yesterday) 90°+.
Today will be the “coolest” day of the foreseeable future. High should reach 90°, paired with dewpoints in the low 70’s will give us a heat index that approaches 100°.
Our streak of 28 consecutive days of reaching the 90’s looks to stop at 28. Our high temp looks to only make it to 85° today. It was a good run, some may say a great run. But all good, or bad things must come to an end. 28 days is the 5th longest streak on record. Not as cool of a streak as Cal Ripken Jr.’s or Joey Chestnut. The streak really hasn’t been cool at all, it’s just been hot.
Dry air is prohibiting the rain from Kentucky from moving into our area. Would not be surprised if a shower squeaked by, but won’t be anything of major consequence.
Latest HRRR model (below) runs think the rain/storms hold off until after a Nashville SC win. But models aren’t always right. Prepare and plan for the unexpected.
Previously mentioned showers coming in from Kentucky look weak. If they do make it here this afternoon, they would just be some very light showers. No need to alter any plans. No severe weather worries with these. HRRR model gives its’ take below.
Below I posted the MaybeWrong HRRR model. It thinks light showers descend from KY beginning midnight tonight and hit or miss sprinkle you until around Saturday afternoon. Would not alter plans. Rainfall unevenly spread and very light. No storm concerns.
Rain and Storm chances return Sunday afternoon. Until then, sticky-uncomfortable humidity (dewpoints in the 60°s) with typical mid-July temps:
Humidity jumps up Sunday afternoon when The Wattery will resume. Place your bets on getting an isolated, scattered shower or thunderstorm overhead each afternoon Sunday through at least Weds. Lightning the hazard, not concerned about tornadoes.
Yesterday’s forecast had wins (HRRR timing on Will Co storms, damaging straight line wind threat) and losses (SPC did not mention hail yet Will Co saw 1″ hail then that storm blew into Marshall Co and dropped 4″ hail on Chapel Hill).
Before storms today, it will be hot. 94° for the high, paired with dewpoints in the low 70’s, giving us a heat index to 101°. Not as bad as last week, but still not comfortable.
Your day throughout the afternoon should be dry.
HRRR model thinks a line of rain and thunderstorms will swing out of KY Tuesday (tomorrow) afternoon but fizzle before they arrive here.
Then — right around sundown Tuesday — it thinks storms redevelop and roll off and on until wee hours Weds.
Storms and showers east and south today, I think we stay dry. Humidity also dropping, ending the streak of sweat, in hopelessness and rage, 70° dewpoints delivering oppressive humidity. Dewps today “only” sticky/uncomfortable, mid to upper 60°s, yay? It’s not football weather but at least it snapped a 120 hour 70°+ dewpoint streakdepicted in blue below, a message straight to your soul:
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