Nashville Severe Weather

First can I please say this was harsh. There are now weather vacancies in Hungary.

All the rain is south of us today. It may flood today in northern Louisiana into west central Mississippi so if you’ve got fam down there heads up. read more

Boring, “normal” week ahead.

Temps normal for late August.

Humidity kinda low for late August, dewpoints in the low 60s.

It probably won’t rain here Weds afternoon and Thursday, but rain then is possible. Rain this week is expected to slide south of us through Mississippi-Alabama-Georgia with some flooding risk down there. Models think there’s a 10% probability some of that rain will sneak north and splash us Weds, with around a 30% to 40% probability Thursday (see below). read more

The million dollar question – “will it rain again today?” We’ve already used all our lifelines, so we are in a tough position. Good thing we have help from models.

HRRR model (above) is leaning towards very few showers/lightningstorms. It wants to think the line coming in from Kentucky falls apart before it can affect the soccer game. read more

Ongoing showers/lightningstorms will continue through the afternoon/evening, clearing out (hopefully, no pinky promises) for nighttime activities – including good ole’ Titans preseason. Things could very well change, we’ll be posting all the updates on Twitter. Below is what the HRRR model thinks will happen. A good amount of these storms will contain lightning, which is sorta (very) dangerous – when thunder roars, go indoors. read more

Remember when we were all SMHing over the 90° days? We were looking at August coming with the dread and Oh Noes? Well…

Just one 90°.

Humidity up to uncomfortable levels is teaming with Other Atmospherey Things You Don’t Care About to create a weekend full of so-so rain/lightning chances. read more

89° is the mid/late August average high.

Great job everybody:

No tornadoes in this forecast but there is rain:

• Today, Gore-geee-usss (for August). After today not so much, but not so bad.
• We may encounter Friday afternoon/evening downpours and lightningstorms scattered around Middle Tennessee. Be lightning safe during HS football games and whatever else it is you’re doing. Most games should be OK but we don’t know which. Here’s the HRRR model (the NAM isn’t quite as stormy):

• Humidity will jump up to Sticky & Uncomfortable beginning Saturday.

• Beginning Saturday through next week, the nerdy sciencey things that make rain will kinda come together to create rain chances without the specificity and timeliness you prefer. I am sorry about that. Midwest low pressure, Canadian upper level low, and about eleventy billion other things, all of it moving at varying rates according to various models, will generally make rain possible here in Tennessee, what a world.
• Rainfall totals look modest, below flash flooding levels.
• No tornado, no hail, no damaging straight line wind events expected. But sure, there may be lightning.
• The most likely time for rain/storms is Sunday night. Confidence level is buns.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast. read more

Fog should mix out around 9 AM. It’s not gone in the classic sense, it still exists, it just won’t be here for a long time.

Rain in West TN this morning should miss us. Models pass it south of us: read more

A few small, light showers are in Middle Tennessee on radar this morning. None of them local, none of them of any consequence.

The HRRR model is dry for us. NAM thinks a few barely-even-rainers could streak through. Look to the north for any shower coming down. read more

Humidity is a up a bit today but nothing like it was last week.

Models have a few inconsequential showers around Middle Tennessee today but none here locally and nothing that would impact outdoor plans. read more