Nashville Severe Weather

Some light showers this morning – no worries with these.

🕜 General ETA for main line of storms is 4-7 PM –> HRRR model thinks 5-6 PM (This could very easily change, stay connected!)

🕜 NAM3k model thinks storms in front of the line arrive 6-7 PM, while the main line gets here around 10-11 PM. (Majority of models lean toward the HRRR solution, ETA of 4-7PM is more likely, but it is unwise to discount any model). read more

⚠️Updated from earlier today.

This morning we thought the storms would come in around 9 PM to 10 PM Wednesday night. Now we think that’s earlier.

⌚ HRRR model ETA is now 5 PM to 6 PM. Timing may change so stay informed. read more

I’ve forgotten what it looks like, but it may* rain from above on Wednesday. Yes, maybe, not for sure.

Two models show two different solutions. Sus.

The EURO (below) shows very little, if any. Maybe just enough to get the ground a lil’ wet. read more

What’ll be a 31 day streak without 0.02″+ of rain might end Thursday morning.

🗣️ Wait, what was that about “might“?

• It’s still a bit sus. Rain misses us in the last two Euro model runs, it goes east. (Makes sense, the good “moisture return” is east).

• GFS disagrees, delivers streak-breaking rain 👇🏽

🗣️ Which one is right?

National Blend of Models thinks rain totaling 0.4″, so I guess go for that? I’m not betting on anything. We need the higher res models to get into range Tuesday to get a grip. read more

Frost Advisory tonight.

Cover or shelter beloved frost sensitive plants.

• Advisory is technically for overnight, 1 AM to 9 AM. Coldest temps will last for a few hours around sunrise.
• We do not think it’ll freeze but it’ll be close.
• Models came in about three degrees colder overnight. BNA’s low went from 40° to 37°.
• Your backyard is usually colder than BNA during fall and winter mornings.

Rain increasingly likely late Wednesday into Thursday.

• GFS, Euro, and National Blend of Models show 0.6″ to 1.2″ rain total.
• Most of this should fall Thursday.

🤞🏽 Thunderstorms – probably not severe – may accompany this rain. This’ll be a “high shear, low instability” event common here in the fall. read more

Dry cold front arrives today.

• No big deal.
• Upper 30°s for most backyards early Sunday morning.
• Official BNA low 40° Sunday morning. BNA is among the warmer local spots during fall and winter mornings.
• Frost unlikely, except on roofs.

Gradual warmup next week 📈.

Drought continues ⌛

• Has not rained more than 0.02″ since September 11.
• Next rain chance Wed-Thu next week. Not much, total of 0.3″ or so on average. This is a low confidence forecast.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. read more

We are all “abnormally dry.”

• Even worse: most of Nashville is in a moderate drought.

You know how it happened:

• Our last rain of more than a tenth of an inch was 0.44″ on September 11.
• We average 3.80″ from Sept 1 to Oct 6. This year we’ve had 1.43″, almost all of which came the first two weeks of Sept.

Not even a chance of rain until maybe late Wednesday, Oct. 12. Low confidence in that.

It’s a great time to seal your driveway or stain your deck. read more

No rain until maybe the Thursday the 13th:

Many of us will dip into the upper 30°s around sunrise weekend.

• Frost should miss us to the east, up on the plateau.
• You’ll want your heater tho.

Alert tweeter Justin side-eyed Tuesday’s crap app forecast: 38° in the morning to 97° in the afternoon, guh. read more

• Don’t burn stuff this afternoon.
• afternoon relative humidity 10% to 20%, that’s crazy dry
• brown ground getting crunchy
• thankfully winds should be under 10 MPH, but still …

… no significant rain has fallen in Middle Tennessee since September 11 and our area has become quite dry – so elevated fire danger is expected during the afternoon hours with a risk for brush fires. read more

Mid week warm up incoming, then much colder this week.

• Upper 80°s Thursday in some models.
• Cold front arrives Thursday night.
• Much colder weekend mornings.
• Some us of will see upper 30°s before sunrise Sunday morning.

Euro shows several colder than normal mornings over the next two weeks:

Euro and GFS models show no rain chances until on/after October 13.

• At least some fire danger remains
• Especially tomorrow as relative humidity drops more.

Quick References: read more