Fog should mix out around 9 AM. It’s not gone in the classic sense, it still exists, it just won’t be here for a long time.
Rain in West TN this morning should miss us. Models pass it south of us:
Fog’s All Gone Soon. Then Talking Rain.
Showers Today, Low Rain Chances Through the Week
Light showers will arrive through the day as “I-24 Specials,” our term for weather that comes down the tracks of I-24 from Kentucky. The HRRR thinks these showers will not increase in intensity on our radar scopes during the day. In fact, they may struggle as they come through. The 13z run of the HRRR through 9:00 pm:
Stuff is Happening in Weather for Us This Week but it’s Meh.
A few small, light showers are in Middle Tennessee on radar this morning. None of them local, none of them of any consequence.
The HRRR model is dry for us. NAM thinks a few barely-even-rainers could streak through. Look to the north for any shower coming down.
No Severe Weather, Just Talking About Temps and Rain This Week.
Humidity is a up a bit today but nothing like it was last week.
Models have a few inconsequential showers around Middle Tennessee today but none here locally and nothing that would impact outdoor plans.
eeees ok Today, Dry Until Early Next Week
This day in history: On August 13, 1881 the temperature in Nashville hit 103 degrees for the second day in a row. Eeek and gross. Today’s a good day to step outside, take a deep breath of un-humid air and feel glad it’s not August 13, 1881.
Less Humid but It’s Not Yet Time To Celebrate the Vile Brew
A north wind is carrying drier, less humid air into town. Check out these dewpoints today through Sunday morning:
It’s not Fall tho, so delay your PSL excitement, temps are still Summer:
But it’s OK to celebrate this Big Weather Improvement. NWS-Nashville suggested leaving your windows open tonight!
Dodge Showers, Then Humidity Relief
70°+ dewpoints are oppressive and we’ve been stuck swamping in them for weeks. Including this morning.
SOON, THEY GONE!
First, we have to dodge a few mid-day downpours:
- HRRR model has more showers (see below).
- NAM3 and other convective models have fewer showers covering less of us.
- Cannot totally rule out a few lightning strikes but think this is mostly a rain event, and only for some of us.
After today, it won’t rain much for a while.
- Humidity will drop. It’ll take a while for north winds to deliver that crisp(er) air from Indiana and Ohio.
- By Saturday you’re going to be doing popular tik-tok things with your friends.
- Watch the swamp get pushed out:
- We go from Oppressive to Comfortable/Sticky for at least about a week or so.
Check out those cool low temps:
The Real Hazard is Not *Exactly* Knowing the Future
Storms are likely today. Even more than yesterday! Rainfall amounts will be spread unequally and without reliable ETAs. Looks like most if not all of us will get something. It’s a Wattery, with many more winning numbers than usual.
2sday Feat. Two Days With Some Rain & Storms Around
Rain and storms are likely today but the question is when?
- The overnight models were all convinced storms would form mid/late afternoon and last into early evening.
- Latest NAM/HRRR models have the afternoon quiet with storms forming after dark.
- It makes more sense that they would form late afternoon to dark, say like around 4 PM to 8 PM. We’ll see.
Storm hazards today/tonight:
- Heavy rain in spots, with flash flooding possible; WPC has a 10% to 20% probability of flash flooding within 25 miles of you
- CG (cloud to ground) lightning
- Low probability of damaging straight line winds in a few isolated spots
- I suppose we could see some small hail but that’s also unlikely
- Not worried about tornadoes.
Rainfall should be heavy in spots but unevenly spread, like what happened yesterday thanks to @SoccerMoses:
Everyone on the interstate was winning the Wattery in that moment. Thank you Soccer Moses!
Four More Days Of Wattery, Then Suh-weeet Relief
Classic Wattery Today Through Thursday.
Monday: Probably Nothing.
- Spilled paint below is just a bunch of models on one display suggesting rain is Quite Unlikely (but maybe still possible) today.
Tuesday: A Bit More Likely.
- HRRR model has rain Tues morning and again late afternoon/early evening, see below.
- Rain may be excessive. 5% probability of flash flooding within 25 miles of you Tuesday. Poor eastern KY, they keep getting hammered by rain.
Wednesday: Likely the Wettest, Stormiest.
- A continuous rain is unlikely, but expect rain off and on during the daylight hours.
- Flash Flood probability straddling the 5% to 10% and 10% to 20% line. Average rainfall around a half inch, but some will get more, others much less.
- Severe weather unlikely in the classic sense (large hail, tornadoes, long tracked damaging straight line wind swaths), but like we’ve seen this past weekend in Donelson, microburst winds will be possible as storms collapse and bring a lot of sudden straight line wind with it.
- CG lightning also likely in these storms. Don’t be far from lightningsafe enclosed structures.
Thursday: One More Wattery Day This Week
- Chances meh, so more water losers than winners.
- Last day of big humidity?
Friday – Weekend: Sweet Relief
- Humidity drop! We’ve been stuck with 70°+ dewpoints for a while, we’re all getting used to it. Dewps drop into the 60°s and even into the upper 50°s Saturday, before re-rising back near 70° late Sunday/Monday. Far from Fall Weather but still pretty nice for mid-August.
- No rain in the weekend forecast (so far!).
- There’s still time for the model data to change.
Quick References:
Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings.
You must be logged in to post a comment.