Nashville Severe Weather

89° is the mid/late August average high.

Great job everybody:

No tornadoes in this forecast but there is rain:

• Today, Gore-geee-usss (for August). After today not so much, but not so bad.
• We may encounter Friday afternoon/evening downpours and lightningstorms scattered around Middle Tennessee. Be lightning safe during HS football games and whatever else it is you’re doing. Most games should be OK but we don’t know which. Here’s the HRRR model (the NAM isn’t quite as stormy):

• Humidity will jump up to Sticky & Uncomfortable beginning Saturday.

• Beginning Saturday through next week, the nerdy sciencey things that make rain will kinda come together to create rain chances without the specificity and timeliness you prefer. I am sorry about that. Midwest low pressure, Canadian upper level low, and about eleventy billion other things, all of it moving at varying rates according to various models, will generally make rain possible here in Tennessee, what a world.
• Rainfall totals look modest, below flash flooding levels.
• No tornado, no hail, no damaging straight line wind events expected. But sure, there may be lightning.
• The most likely time for rain/storms is Sunday night. Confidence level is buns.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast. read more

Fog should mix out around 9 AM. It’s not gone in the classic sense, it still exists, it just won’t be here for a long time.

Rain in West TN this morning should miss us. Models pass it south of us: read more

A few small, light showers are in Middle Tennessee on radar this morning. None of them local, none of them of any consequence.

The HRRR model is dry for us. NAM thinks a few barely-even-rainers could streak through. Look to the north for any shower coming down. read more

Humidity is a up a bit today but nothing like it was last week.

Models have a few inconsequential showers around Middle Tennessee today but none here locally and nothing that would impact outdoor plans. read more

This day in history: On August 13, 1881 the temperature in Nashville hit 103 degrees for the second day in a row. Eeek and gross. Today’s a good day to step outside, take a deep breath of un-humid air and feel glad it’s not August 13, 1881. read more

A north wind is carrying drier, less humid air into town. Check out these dewpoints today through Sunday morning:

It’s not Fall tho, so delay your PSL excitement, temps are still Summer:

But it’s OK to celebrate this Big Weather Improvement. NWS-Nashville suggested leaving your windows open tonight! read more

70°+ dewpoints are oppressive and we’ve been stuck swamping in them for weeks. Including this morning.

SOON, THEY GONE!

First, we have to dodge a few mid-day downpours:

• HRRR model has more showers (see below).
• NAM3 and other convective models have fewer showers covering less of us.

• Cannot totally rule out a few lightning strikes but think this is mostly a rain event, and only for some of us.

After today, it won’t rain much for a while.

• Humidity will drop. It’ll take a while for north winds to deliver that crisp(er) air from Indiana and Ohio.
• By Saturday you’re going to be doing popular tik-tok things with your friends.
• Watch the swamp get pushed out:

• We go from Oppressive to Comfortable/Sticky for at least about a week or so.

Check out those cool low temps: read more

Storms are likely today. Even more than yesterday! Rainfall amounts will be spread unequally and without reliable ETAs. Looks like most if not all of us will get something. It’s a Wattery, with many more winning numbers than usual. read more

Rain and storms are likely today but the question is when?

• The overnight models were all convinced storms would form mid/late afternoon and last into early evening.
• Latest NAM/HRRR models have the afternoon quiet with storms forming after dark.
• It makes more sense that they would form late afternoon to dark, say like around 4 PM to 8 PM. We’ll see.

Storm hazards today/tonight:

• Heavy rain in spots, with flash flooding possible; WPC has a 10% to 20% probability of flash flooding within 25 miles of you
• CG (cloud to ground) lightning
• Low probability of damaging straight line winds in a few isolated spots
• I suppose we could see some small hail but that’s also unlikely
• Not worried about tornadoes.

Rainfall should be heavy in spots but unevenly spread, like what happened yesterday thanks to @SoccerMoses:

Everyone on the interstate was winning the Wattery in that moment. Thank you Soccer Moses! read more