… no significant rain has fallen in Middle Tennessee since September 11 and our area has become quite dry – so elevated fire danger is expected during the afternoon hours with a risk for brush fires.
Mid week warm up incoming, then much colder this week.
Euro shows several colder than normal mornings over the next two weeks:
Euro and GFS models show no rain chances until on/after October 13.
Quick References:
Aerating and seeding? The only water you’ll get will have to come out of your hose.
Need to burn a pile? Not a good idea. If you must, avoid the afternoons, when relative humidity is lowest and winds are strongest.
October will live up to its name of being the driest month on average, at least for the first half of the month. No rain is expected for at least the next week. Good for fall festivities.
It’ll be a little windy today, and relative humidity will be sorta low, so today may not be the best day for a bonfire.
Ian is over there 👉🏽
Ian’s rain is all going east of us this weekend:
No rain in sight.
Our average first fall freeze is November 1.
This is not ideal. So-called “Secondary Storm Season” begins in November.
Little windy today, no big deal. Locate chapstick: low 40°s dewpoints.
Ian should be a tropical depression in mountains of east NC Saturday afternoon.
Probably too far east to bring us rain this weekend.
Marginal fire danger today. Gusty winds and low relative humidity may spread outdoor fires. So maybe don’t burn things today.
Ian won’t bring us wind, tornadoes, or flooding. Right now it looks like it might not bring us rain.
Morning jackets needed with lows in the 40°s. Roof frost is appearing in locations that often get way colder than the official BNA low.
Warmer this weekend as Ian moves inland.
Ian
Ian will become a major hurricane as it approaches Sarasota/City of Tampa midweek. We are not a landfalling hurricane source so follow @NHC_Atlantic and noaa.gov/ian for the latest forecasts.
Brushfires could spread.
Locate your morning jacket, fam.
Ian’s after-landfall, inland path is unknown. One set of models brings its remnants into Middle Tennessee this weekend. Rain the only impact.
Rain today should miss us.
South and east of us according to the HRRR model 👇🏽.
No promises but activities today look good.
Maybe don’t burn things tomorrow.
Where the ground is dry, when relative humidity drops, and where wind is picking up, you should not burn things. Fire loves dry ground, winds, and low relative humidity. This will be Monday, which “could bring some marginal fire danger.”
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