Aerating and seeding? The only water you’ll get will have to come out of your hose.
Need to burn a pile? Not a good idea. If you must, avoid the afternoons, when relative humidity is lowest and winds are strongest.
The browns are in town.
Beginning Of A Spooky Month Brings Not-So-Spooky Weather
October will live up to its name of being the driest month on average, at least for the first half of the month. No rain is expected for at least the next week. Good for fall festivities.
It’ll be a little windy today, and relative humidity will be sorta low, so today may not be the best day for a bonfire.
No Rain In Sight, so a few words and graphs about fall temps.
Ian is over there 👉🏽
Ian’s rain is all going east of us this weekend:
No rain in sight.
- Models show a front next Thursday bringing us no rain.
- No surprise, October is our driest month.
Our average first fall freeze is November 1.
- Euro ensemble model 👇🏽 shows temps mostly above average until the second week of … November.
- CPC guidance 👇🏽 thinks above normal average temps (there will be cold snaps) through December:
This is not ideal. So-called “Secondary Storm Season” begins in November.
Ian Unlikely To Bring Weekend Rain
Little windy today, no big deal. Locate chapstick: low 40°s dewpoints.
Ian should be a tropical depression in mountains of east NC Saturday afternoon.
Probably too far east to bring us rain this weekend.
Ian Rain This Weekend?
Marginal fire danger today. Gusty winds and low relative humidity may spread outdoor fires. So maybe don’t burn things today.
Ian won’t bring us wind, tornadoes, or flooding. Right now it looks like it might not bring us rain.
Chilly therefore chili. Update on Ian-related weekend rain potential.
Morning jackets needed with lows in the 40°s. Roof frost is appearing in locations that often get way colder than the official BNA low.
Warmer this weekend as Ian moves inland.
Ian
Ian will become a major hurricane as it approaches Sarasota/City of Tampa midweek. We are not a landfalling hurricane source so follow @NHC_Atlantic and noaa.gov/ian for the latest forecasts.
2 Things: Maybe Don’t Burn Things. Will 🌀 Ian Bring Us Weekend Rain?
Brushfires could spread.
- Low relative humidity and winds 10 to 15 MPH expected today and tomorrow.
- These conditions can spread fires, especially where little rain has fallen lately.
- But the concern is low.
- NWS-Nashville is monitoring. They have not issued any warnings (called Red Flag Warnings). Winds aren’t quite strong enough to raise serious concerns. And it may not be dry enough.
- We will update you on Twitter if this changes.
Locate your morning jacket, fam.
Ian’s after-landfall, inland path is unknown. One set of models brings its remnants into Middle Tennessee this weekend. Rain the only impact.
Come for the probs no rain today, don’t burn things tomorrow. Stay for informed, low-reliability speculation about 🌀 Ian.
Rain today should miss us.
South and east of us according to the HRRR model 👇🏽.
No promises but activities today look good.
Maybe don’t burn things tomorrow.
Where the ground is dry, when relative humidity drops, and where wind is picking up, you should not burn things. Fire loves dry ground, winds, and low relative humidity. This will be Monday, which “could bring some marginal fire danger.”
Rain Incoming, But Perfectly Timed, Just Like Fall
Rain is on the Saturday morning radar. This 👇🏽 is from 7:30 AM. See this for an updated image.
Some of this rain is not reaching the ground. Most of it is.
The rain is light. I’m bringing a rain jacket to rollyball fields this morning.
Summer vs Winter Poll Results, & About Some Weekend Rain
When you run a poll the day after it was 100°:
I’m going to rerun this thing in late winter after a cold snap to see what happens.
FWIW (nothing) I’m team summer, my feet never get warm in the winter.
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