Moving this morning in our general direction are storms that last night caused Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings in the midwest. This storm complex is now much weaker and crossing the Ohio River, moving south through Kentucky. Most models think these storms will further decay and then completely fall apart before the Tennessee state line. (A few models predict the system – while weaker – will at least hold its precip and cross into Tennessee along and east of I-65).
Record highs at BNA on Tuesday (97 in 2018) and Wednesday (97 in 1955) could be tied or even broken.
NWS-Nashville, 9/18/22, AM Forecast Discussion
Hot, but not as humid as the other heatwaves this summer. Dewpoints upper 50°s (Comfortable) / lower 60°s (Sticky) during this End of Summer Heatwave.
There’s little to no hope of rain in the next 7+ days.
Today will be the same as yesterday and the day before. Then things get…worse.
This is hot but it’s not even close to the worst heat we’ve seen this summer because dewpoints — although Not Great, Bob — won’t be that bad.
Wildfire haze should slightly dim clear skies. Those are controlled burns south.
Heat without bad humidity will build into next week when the heat index (what it “feels like”) might approach 100°.
It’s been a great weather week. Well, the good times never stay. And the cheap thrills always seem to fade away.
Fall begins at 803 PM in one week (September 22) so you’d expect temps to be easing on down into Autumn range, but, no.
Boring is good.
A ridge is an elongated area of high pressure. We’ll have one for a while. That means
We will still sweat.
When will the heat break?
Models disagree (shocking, I know).
Euro (below) thinks late next week (Friday the 23rd), the first full day of Fall!
/stands up, stacks papers/
Just one item y’all. We ride. Check this out 👇🏽.
Warmer each day, eventually to 90° because it’s still summer.
I will now take questions.
How Long Will We Ride This Lower Humidity?
Today-Tuesday is back-to-back glorious. Temps either side of 80°. Pleasant humidity.
We warm up Weds and should be to 90° by Friday.
Dewpoints should stay below 60° all week. Last week dewps were in the upper 60°s and low 70°.
The HRRR model isn’t exactly sure what will happen this afternoon but the latest HRRR model run wants football.
HRRR Model Noon – 3 PM, tailgating off/on rain with a few lightning strikes possible:
Ongoing showers looks to wane away at some point this afternoon, as shown by the HRRR model below.
HRRR model thinks it is possible that more showers develop this afternoon. Unsure if this will actually happen, but even if it does, they look very scattered in nature, and you may stay dry. Looks as if evening plans are good to go but having rain gear close by for the NSC game or other activities wouldn’t be a horrible idea.
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