Severe Storm Potential Tuesday

Nice today with a high temp getting all the way up to 80° (record is 85° set in 2000).

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us for ⚠️severe weather, specifically:

  • 5% chance within 25 miles of damaging straight-line winds 💨 and severe hail (1″+)
  • 2% chance of a tornado 🌪️ within 25 miles
  • higher risk exists to our south and west

Before the storms arrive, tomorrow during the day will be windy and a Wind Advisory may be issued. Tie down Halloween decor, trampolines, light aunts, etc.

The HRRR model thinks most likely ETA is 2-6 pm. As of now, looks like there will just be one line of storms to “worry” about. Not the best timing with evening rush hour getting underway and you probably don’t want to drive in this. Plan accordingly.

  • By no means is this a “slam dunk” event, this is a low probability of a high impact event
  • Have multiple ways to get information, especially with the timing of this event (kids getting out of school, after school events, etc.)
  • Have a plan if a warning is issued for you, here is a refresher if needed
  • Storm anxiety is real, here is a lil’ read on it

We saw the other week how quickly these lines can pulse up, and pulse right back down. Be ready to act swiftly if a Tornado Warning is issued for a quick spin-up tornado. We’ll be covering it all day tomorrow.

Rainfall amounts look to be between 0.5″-1″. Not a drought buster but will for sure help.

After the front pushes through, we’ll dry out and get a little cool down for the back half of the week.

Halloween weekend temperature wise looks perfect. Precipitation wise – there are some question marks right now. GFS thinks we’re dry, while the Euro thinks we get a nice dose of rain. Only time will tell, we’ll see if they start to agree with one another. Don’t see a reason to cancel/change any outdoor plans just yet.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

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