Nearly 4-5 inches of rainfall fell from last Friday to this morning in Nashville. Bit less in Will Co.
All rain today will be well south of us:
Rivers and creeks will take time to drain. Levels will slowly go down.
By the time the storm line got to us tonight, low level winds were running parallel to storm motion. Add an inversion aloft with a heavily saturated column. The trio wrecked our low-probability tornado chances.
Strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight.
Tornadoes are possible in Middle Tennessee, including Davidson & Williamson Counties of course. That’s the area we cover.
Around lunchtime we see our atmosphere begin gathering tornadomaking ingredients.
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has given us a Slight Risk for Sunday afternoon, but we don’t expect widespread severe weather.
As mentioned above, spc put us in a slight risk for Sunday. The main concerns are flooding, and a non-zero chance of brief Tornados, damaging wind, and small hail. This isn’t some widespread severe weather event, but it has us interested enough to write a special blog to discuss it. So let’s dig in.
10z HRRR Reflectivity Loop
Above, the HRRR model is running through Sunday night. A storm complex riding a cool front comes our way Sunday afternoon. Exact timing is still a little unsteady, but we think it will be Sunday evening for the “main event”.
We know it will bring us lots of rain.
The above graphic is showing a forecasted amount of multiple inches, and that has triggered a flood watch through Monday morning. Creeks, rivers, drainage ditches will remain full and may exceed flood guidance, triggering flood warnings tomorrow night. An isolated 4″ of rain for some us is not out of the question. Flash flooding will be of most concern in areas that receive a lot of rain yesterday. Creek and river levels can be checked here… NashSevereWX Flood Resources
A flood advisory will like remain in effect through 6pm Wednesday.
It’s low. But it’s not zero and the greater threat exists if there isn’t a cloud deck in place tomorrow afternoon. The setup Sunday is going to be influenced by storm fuel (heat + instability).
Here’s what the NWS said in their Saturday afternoon AFD…
Afternoon high temps on Sunday expected to sore into mid 70s south with a good amount of instability and favorable lapses rates for strong to severe convection development, especially if rainfall does not move into this portion of mid state region until late afternoon hours allowing for increased atmospheric instability due to enhanced diurnal heating influences.
Heavy localized rainfall and thunderstorms remain for the majority of the afternoon into tonight. The producer for this lineup is caused by a developing warm front moving northward over the area.
Mostly spotty showers and passing light rain will prevail from now until the late afternoon. The heaviest of rain does not appear to move over Nashville until around 8 PM tonight.
Rain will continue off and on today through Monday. The greatest possibility for flooding will arrive Sunday night through Monday. Severe weather threats remain minimal. If you have outdoor stuff you NEED to do, Saturday afternoon is your best shot.
While ever-shrinking piles of plowed snow hang around to remind us of the big snow that was, we look ahead to a multi-inch rain that could bring flooding.
It wasn’t too long ago we were looking at snow accumulation maps that resembled this, but rain in these amounts is a different ballgame. Much more water will fall from the sky and will likely run right off into local ponds, streams, creeks and rivers due to the saturated ground.
After dark a weak cold front will move through, pushing a few light, scattered showers ahead of it. No big deal.
Cold air will file in overnight, waking up to 37°, high only 54°. It’s still winter.
Still have snow in your yard? Yeah. It’ll be gone today or tomorrow.
NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Sunshine and warmer temps?
Highs the next couple days will be 10° above average.
The HRRR has showers beginning to come through the area around 9 PM. They should be out of the area before daybreak Thursday, giving way to more sunshine Thursday afternoon.
The surface front that brought some showers early this morning is making its final eastward exit out of the Plateau.
Clearing skies today will stick around with us for a good portion of the work week with mild temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
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