Rain is pretty likely Tuesday. Notice how it scatters and breaks up as it gets into Middle Tennessee on the Euro model (but we still get rained on):
The HRRR model doesn’t think it’ll break up. It thinks a heavier band of rain will cross through after lunch.
All these upper 60s-low 70s have us feeling:
An upper level low will pass through the midwest Tuesday. This should spark some off and on rain Tuesday, maybe into Wednesday.
But the data isn’t giving any clues to timing. It’s possible all the rain misses your backyard.
March 20 marks the first day of spring in the Northern Hemisphere! Satellites caught something pretty cool this morning:
Editor’s Note:
Clouds will continue to move out this afternoon, giving way to beautiful skies.
Chilly (maybe sprinkly at times) today until clouds clear. Image below from 9:21 AM. Clearing line may not arrive until late this afternoon. Therefore only 54°. Cold north wind.
Close to freezing around dawn Saturday and Sunday mornings. Then we warm up.
After a long day yesterday of severe weather threats, we will settle down today with just showers in the forecast.
Timing is mainly after 12 noon, with the chance continuing through the night.
Any showers we have are expected to bring light accumulation.
Two things before we get started.
First, we cover Davidson and Williamson Counties. A serious and very concerning severe weather outbreak is forecast to take place in Mississippi and Alabama today. For the purposes of this blog, we will only focus on our two counties.
I am supposed to be at the gym.
I’m not because the forecast changed.
Earlier, there was question about whether a warm front would get far enough north “providing ample moisture for storms to feed on.”
We will likely see two round of rain/storms Wednesday.
The first round will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
This first round will race ahead of the warm front trailing behind it, so while gusty winds are possible, tornadoes are not expected to accompany this activity.
18z model runs (six of them, below) depict Wednesday’s severe event southwest of – but not including – Davidson and Williamson Counties:
This aligns with the 15% severe threat for Wednesday from the Storm Prediction Center.
Lunchtime rain is moving out. Should be clearing this afternoon.
This will all depend on two things: morning rain and where a high pressure is:
The Storm Prediction Center has put Nashville and Will Co under a 5% chance of seeing a severe storm within 25 miles of a point. The southwestern half of Williamson County is under a 15% probability, but I would not pay too much attention to that — the risk isn’t 10% higher in Franklin vs Brentwood, or the rest of our area.
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