Current Radar
A stationary front has set up just north of us. Rain and storms are firing off it as it feeds off the humid airmass overhead:
Expect scattered showers — some heavy at times — to move east this afternoon.
Current Radar
The main rain band has set up well south of us:
I drew white squiggly lines on the above image to show little ripples/waves in the clouds, extending all the way back to Oklahoma. A few small showers were forming along that route this morning.
Current Radar
Showers and storms over Kentucky tonight have weakened. We will remain comfortably south of all that, with only our new, home grown, light showers to contend with beginning sometime around midnight (maybe a bit before then for Williamson County).
Current Radar
Tonight – Radar trends show storms north, rain south, but we may stay dry (but windy)
Davidson County is included in a Flash Flood Watch until Saturday at 7 PM.
2″ to 4″ additional inches of rain are possible; however, the short-range models have arrived and are suggesting it may not be quite this bad.
Current Radar
We are under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms through early tomorrow morning:
While strong storms are likely to continue for areas inside this brown line, we’re not expecting a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued:
Current Radar
*Updated with Severe Thunderstorm Watch at 11:50 AM – Kaiti*
Both the HRRR model (shown) and the NAM4 model (not shown) agree that this afternoon’s activity will be southeast of us well before 7 PM:
Current Radar
*Updated with latest SPC update at 12:27 PM -Kaiti
We have been downgraded to a MARGINAL risk of severe thunderstorms today:
Here’s the breakdown of wind, tornado, and hail risks:
Current Radar
The I-24 Storms are coming from the NW. See the above radar and follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for more info. These have strong, and maybe severe, potential.
The Storm Prediction Center still has our probability of a hail or a damaging wind event within 25 miles of us at 5%. We are excluded from their tornado outlook.
Current Radar
Showers and maybe a few storms may swing through this afternoon. The HRRR model sure thinks so:
I chose this wide view because it shows this week’s “source” of rain/storm activity: the northwest.
Current Radar
Reopening Monday, the I-24 Storm Corridor, where rain and storms get here by moving from NW-to-SE.
The first of a series of shortwaves this week is already ongoing as I write this in Missouri.