Spring is Pretty Much Here

Current Radar 

Today – Windy & Clouds Increasing – High: 77°

Hold on to your hats today! The southerly winds will be kickin’ this afternoon with gusts near 15 mph.

The pesky clouds will stick around all day. There will be some peeks of sun in some areas while temperatures warm up into the upper 70s.

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We are already seeing some rain just to our west over Jackson and around I-40. The HRRR model (controversially) thinks there will be some batches of rain moving our way around lunchtime ahead of the main system to our west. We may here a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon as well.

However, we aren’t sold on these rain chances. We think the rain may stay west of us for one more day.

The frontal boundary to the west will move very slowly our way. Why? The steering winds are screaming out of the south, rather than from the west or southwest, making it hard for the front to move east. For us here in Tennessee –  the western counties will see most of the rain this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has included them in a general thunderstorm outlook for today, but we are excluded.

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Expect a few isolated showers during the overnight hours into the morning on Thursday.

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Overnight temperatures will be mild in the low 60s under an overcast sky.

Thursday – Showers and Thunderstorms – Waking Up: 62° High: 72°

During the morning commute, most of the rain will still be to our west. It will be windy during the morning as well. Southerly wind gusts at 20 mph will remain. The line of showers and thunderstorms will begin to move our direction during the early afternoon hours. We can’t rule out some showers ahead of the system around lunchtime.

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The Storm Prediction Center has included us in the general thunderstorm outlook for Thursday.

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The models show the line to be slow moving as it approaches from the west.

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A strong upper level shortwave will move toward the west coast in California. This shortwave will change the upper level system we have been seeing the past couple of days over Texas. This is why we will see rain this week into the weekend. As the system over Texas lifts northeast, we will have rain move into our area on Thursday into Friday morning.

Friday – More Rain – Waking Up: 59° High: 68°

It will be cooler on Friday because the frontal boundary will have passed. It will stall just to our southeast. Rain will linger into the morning hours on Friday. Models show most of the showers tapering off after lunchtime.

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Rainfall amounts range across the state. We will see near an inch of rain with locally heavier amounts. The west will see the larger rainfall totals due to the system moving slowly east. We are talking record rainfall amounts for areas in Louisiana, East Texas, and Arkansas.

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Now that the upper level pattern has changed, expect to have some shortwaves (pieces of energy aloft) bringing rain into our area late this week into the weekend.

More rain will move in from the southwest late in the afternoon on Friday. We will keep you updated on Friday’s set up!

Moisture will increase in our area Friday night into Saturday.

Extended: More rain is on the way this weekend. Rainfall totals will only get higher. An additional quarter to half an inch can be expected. A warm front will sweep across our area on Saturday as a system moves northeast from the southwest over Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Don’t forget to spring the clocks forward an hour before going to be on Saturday. Spring is in the air with these mild temperatures!

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Warming Up This Weekend

Current Radar 

Saturday – Warmer Early 36° High 64°

Don’t you love it when nice weather lines up with our weekends? I know I do.

After a cold start, we will warm up on Saturday under a mostly sunny sky. Rain is coming to far eastern portions of Tennessee, but it should leave us alone.

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A cold front will move our way during the mid/late afternoon hours.

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This front will just be a reinforcing shot of dry air. It will change our dew points more than our temperatures. We will still be in the 60s on Sunday. The winds will pick up a bit as this front moves in. Wind gusts near 15 mph.

Sunday – Sunshine Early 34° High 64°

Temperatures will reach the low 60s once again under a mostly sunny sky. Winds will be calm out of the east as surface high pressure keeps us dry on Sunday.

There will be an upper level ridge building over our area on Sunday as a trough deepens to our west. This setup on Sunday into Monday will keep us dry and help temperatures warm above average on Monday.

Extended: The ridge will help temperatures rise above normal across our area. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s and low 70s across Middle Tennessee. Winds will be breezy on Monday due to the tight pressure gradient at the surface from the high pressure to the east and a surface low building to our west over the southern Plains/Texas. With rising temperatures and increasing moisture there is greater instability, so thunderstorms may move into our area late afternoon/evening on Tuesday. Very heavy rain is expected along and west of the Mississippi River, but the models haven’t been consistent about whether that will wander closer our way.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Super Rainy (& Stormy) Super Tuesday Update

Current Radar

Today – Sunny High: 65°

The system to our north over the Great Lakes has brought some clouds in our area this morning. Clouds will move out of the area then expect plenty of sunshine today. Enjoy it!

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The current surface analysis shows last night’s weak cold front has passed (as expected). Temperatures will continue to climb this afternoon into the mid 60s.

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The big story is super Tuesday. This when our next rain-maker will move in.

Super Tuesday – Showers and Thunderstorms High: 67° — Vote Early

The Storm Prediction Center has updated the severe weather outlook and we are now included in a slight risk for Tuesday.

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A surface low will move over the Ohio River Valley from the west. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through Tuesday afternoon. Our temperatures ahead of a strong cold front will reach the upper 60s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s across our area.

There will be enough instability for some strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The main threat with this system will be damaging winds. As the front approaches in the afternoon, there will be a fairly tight pressure gradient at the surface, meaning it will be pretty windy. Southwesterly winds will gust up to 25 mph from lunchtime into the late afternoon.

The tornado threat will be low… Close to zero. Winds will be out of the southwest at the surface as the system approaches our area. Not enough turning with height in the atmosphere.

Timing:

The Euro has the rain moving in around lunchtime. Then the heavy rain moves in during the late afternoon into the evening.

The NAM 4 km has isolated showers and thunderstorms moving in ahead of major band of rain during the morning commute.

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Models agree there will be rain in our area during lunchtime. It is a good idea to eat inside.

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gfs tues 12 pmThe cold front will pass through late afternoon. The cold air will start filtering in and temperatures will tumble into the low to mid 30s overnight. This is when we see a line of showers and thunderstorms in our area. Damaging winds will be the main threat when this line moves through.

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As the colder air filters in, light snow may begin to mix with showers around midnight. Most of the wintry mix will stay to our east on the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures will remain above the freezing mark so no accumulation is expected.

Wednesday – Colder! High: 44°

Clouds will gradually decrease during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s across the area. You will see some sunshine as high pressure builds in after the system.

Winds will be out of the northwest then shift to out of the south once again. The surface high pressure moving east over our area will influence our wind flow.

Extended

More rain will move in later this week. An upper level shortwave will swing through late Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty with the track of the low at the surface. However, there will be rain moving in during the early afternoon on Thursday. We will keep you updated on details of Thursday’s system. 

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Plot Twist: Warming Trend

Current Radar

Today – Mostly Sunny High: 48°

After all that nonsense last night, we are ready for a warm, sunny weekend!

There are just a few clouds in our area, but they will clear out throughout the day.

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High pressure will move in and keep us dry today. Temperatures will only reach the upper 40°s today, due to the cold air advection from our northerly winds. Hang in there, though. Temperatures will then rebound into the upper 50°s by Saturday!

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Saturday – Much Warmer High: 59°

Winds will quickly shift from out of the north to out of the south as the high pressure moves over our area.

We will be just on the fringe of the cold air mass Saturday morning.

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The southerly winds will help us warm up during the afternoon.

Expect plenty of sunshine on Saturday.

Sunday – Pleasant High: 68°

Temperatures will warm up into the upper 60°s with some areas hitting the low 70°s in the afternoon. There will be a shortwave moving over our area late on Sunday.

What this means for us is just a weak cold front will drift through late afternoon into the evening. You will feel the winds pick up a bit int he afternoon with gusts near 25 mph. The reason is for this tight pressure gradient over us.

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A low will move over the Great Lakes with high pressure to our east. Clouds will gradually increase late afternoon into the overnight.

We will see some showers during the late afternoon into morning commute on Monday. The rain should be tapering off to east by the morning commute, but you can’t rule out a few isolated showers still in our area.

Extended: Temperatures will drop off slightly on Monday under a mostly sunny sky. The main concern will be our next rainmaker expected to bring thunderstorms early Tuesday. Dew points will be in the low to mid 50s with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in our area Tuesday. This could limit the severe weather threat for us, however we will keep you updated on this. Model updates have tampered with the track of the low each day. Right now it shows the the low tracking through Missouri and Illinois then over the Ohio River Valley. If we get warmer temperatures and higher dew points with a track more southeasterly then this could be more of a severe weather threat. We will keep you updated on this next system. Until then – enjoy the nice weekend weather!

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Warm Today & Rainy Weekend Ahead

Current Radar 

Today – Windy and Warm High: 68° 

Hold on to your hats! A Wind Advisory remains in effect for our area until 6:00 pm this evening. Wind gusts could reach up to 35 mph.

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Winds will be out of the south due to a surface high pressure to the east of us.

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A surface low will dip down into our area today. Moisture will increase while a warm front develops to our east. Clouds will gradually increase during the day.

There will be no rain in the forecast today since this system is fairly weak. Once the evening arrives we will see a mostly cloudy sky.

Enough instability will be in place during the evening hours for showers to increase across our area.

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(Editor’s Note: HRRR (see below) gives us a little more hope than the NAM4 of a rain-free Friday evening. Not expecting a washout, but don’t be surprised if you see a few sprinkles.)

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You will hear some hear pitter patter on your roofs while you are in your bed.

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Saturday – Showers Linger High: 67°

Showers will linger into the morning hours on Saturday. We may even hear a few rumbles of thunder due to the increased instability.

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We will be a couple of degrees cooler in some locations due to the increased cloud cover. Winds out of the south will settle down on Saturday. The warm front will stay situated over the Tennessee Valley during the weekend. The rain is kind of stationary during the overnight hours on Friday into Saturday morning.

Most of the rain will be to our south when you are headed out to lunch.

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Rain will increase once again in the afternoon hours on Saturday. The pesky clouds will stick around during the day.

Sunday – More Rain High: 65°

A disturbance will move north of us over the Ohio River Valley and accelerate east during the day on Sunday.  Temperatures will cool down slightly in the mid 60s.

As the disturbance moves east, we will see rain in the morning and afternoon.

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Thunderstorms may be in our area during the lunchtime hours. Not anticipating any severe weather on Sunday.

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Models show most of the rain tapering off overnight on Sunday into Monday morning. There will still be some isolated showers around our area on Monday.

Rain totals will be near half an inch through the weekend.

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Extended: A cold front will send a cold shot of air from the north on Monday. Temperatures will tumble into the mid 50s under a mostly cloudy sky on Monday. Winds will switch from south to north early week. A disturbance from the Gulf will move across Mississippi and Alabama late Monday into Tuesday. This will bring rain into our area Tuesday. We will keep you updated on the track of this surface low.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Cold Weekend Ahead, Update on Sunday/Monday Snow Potential

Current Radar 

Few Flurries Tonight?

Notice that the HRRR model has a few flurries possible late this evening as the surface low moves east.

Right now there is no reason to be worried about these.

Saturday – Sunshine But Much Colder! Waking Up: 17° High: 28°

High pressure will be in full control of our weather for Saturday, driving in frigid temps on a north wind.

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Clouds will begin to increase as our next disturbance gets closer to us.

Sunday – Wintry Mix Late – Waking Up: 17° High: 38°

The current run of the GFS model has a wintry mix off to our west Sunday afternoon, making its way toward us in the evening.

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The NAM4 model has it coming a little earlier, perhaps in the afternoon. An afternoon arrival means rain.

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Precip should still be in place Sunday night as we drop below freezing. During this time should see some snowfall accumulation, lasting through the overnight hours on Sunday, more north of I-40 than south of it.

However, forecast soundings show some warming aloft – meaning despite sub freezing temperatures Sunday night, the snow may melt before it reaches the surface or refreeze once it falls below freezing again. So, sleet and freezing rain may be what happens at first Sunday night, before possibly changing to all snow very late Sunday night into Monday morning. The changeover time is very uncertain, and will obviously impact ice and snow accumulation potential. It’s also possible it could be one of those events where it snows, then melts.

Editor’s Note — I agree with what Meagan has on this. My “gut” — not a forecast — is that temperatures aloft and at the surface will be too high to accumulate much. Temps at the surface, 2,000 feet, and 5,000 feet have been right at 0°C during several of the last model runs, with slight variations in and out of our counties. Snow and ice potential improves the further north you are.  

Road conditions may be hazardous when waking up on Monday, but the low temp (even with some wiggle room for evaporative cooling) should be very close to freezing, then rising above freezing after the sun comes up. It’ll be hard to wreck the roads with temps only at, or barely below, freezing. The precip will be hanging around during the day on Monday, most likely as rain. We expect 44° Monday afternoon. Any snow/ice accumulation early Monday morning should be very short-lived.

Edit! This afternoon, our NWS updated its idea on what’ll happen, suggesting afternoon rain may be afternoon snow around 1″ along and north of 40, while what we suspected would be mix/snow Sunday night may be rain:

The good news is school won’t be in session for most because it is Washington’s Birthday.

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There is a chance precipitation will linger Monday night, as dropping temps again flirt with freezing, providing a potential for a parting snowshower or two as the precip pulls east.  Temps are not expected to get too far below freezing (if at all) late Monday night into Tuesday morning, so although there might be a slight refreezing concern, that doesn’t look likely.

There’s also an indication another shortwave will swing back through the area on Tuesday, probably Tuesday night. With low temps hanging around the freezing mark and high temps expected to be at least in the 40°s, expect another brief window of snow chances, but mostly another rain event.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Watching Another Clipper Tonight

Current Radar 

Today – More Rain or Snow? High: 30°

We’ve got sunshine, which will aid snowmelt.

Rain, but more likely snow, is possible tonight.

We are watching this clipper move our way:

Models disagree about what will really happen as this system moves closer.

The NAM4 thinks it’ll arrive early, possibly even as rain:

WED 3 pm

Then, 3 hours later:

wed 6 pm

Even though the model suggests rain, the temp profiles suggest a little light snow.

However, the HRRR model, which is doing well “initializing” itself (this leads to more confidence), thinks the snow will drive I-24 into Nashville tonight:

This would be less than 1″, if it happens. But still, more snow! That’s unwelcome considering we’ll drop back into the 20°s overnight. We may lose the benefit of improved road conditions.

Who’s right? We’ll see. David is an HRRR believer. We’ll be doing the play-by-play all day on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Thursday – Warming Up – Waking Up: 23° High: 40°

Expect a warming trend late this week.

Temperatures will warm up into the low 40s under a partly cloudy sky, finally getting some good melting going.

Northerly winds will be calm during the day. Some light isolated showers are possible during the overnight hours Thursday into Friday. A very weak impulse looks like it will move overhead Thursday into Friday. Some models show rain while others do not. Can’s rule out a light shower overnight night Thursday into Friday morning.

Friday – Cold Front – Waking Up: 21° High: 44°

There may be some light showers to our east right before the morning commute.

Winds out of the north will be fairly calm in the morning on Friday. There will some clouds hanging around during the day. A cold front will approach our area from the north and knock temperatures down once again.

I think the winds will pick up a bit due to the steep pressure gradient over us Friday afternoon and evening. Winds will be out of the north filtering in cooler air from the north.

Looks like the cold arctic air will move in overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

Extended: The cold front will reinforce the cooler, drier air for the weekend. Dew points will drop to the single digits on Saturday. Very dry. Temperatures will also stay below the freezing mark on Saturday with a high temperature in the low 30s. The good news is this cold front will be a dry one, so no rain in our area on Saturday.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Light Snow Tonight/Overnight As Temps Tumble Into the 20°s

Current Radar 

Temps Dropping Tonight

Some of the coldest temperatures of the winter are arriving tonight.

One cold front swept through early this morning, and another is pushing in very cold air now.  However, during the day, temps here on the surface will remain above freezing, slowing dropping toward freezing around 9 PM or so tonight. Stay tuned on Twitter to verify the timing of this.

Meanwhile, light snow continues to fall, generated by a clipper system rotating in from the NW.

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Why snow? Because temperatures just overhead are very cold, and by the time the snow gets to above-freezing temps here on the ground, it either does not have time to change to snow, or only gets halfway there and is sleet. It’ll have to be freezing down here on the ground for it to stick.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for counties to our east:

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More cloud cover is building in, and will continue to generate light, scattered snow showers tonight and overnight.

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Around 9:00 PM the scattered snow showers should start to stick as temps finally reach freezing.

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We are still expecting less than inch as the snow continues lightly falling overnight and temps dive into the 20°s.

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Tuesday – Even Colder! Waking Up: 22° High: 31°

Isolated light snow showers will linger into the early morning hours on Tuesday.

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Arctic air will settle in on Tuesday, with temperatures in the low 20s when you wake up. We won’t get above the freezing during the day.

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Clouds will gradually decrease during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday.

The highest accumulation will be just to our east. The models agree:

Monday through tuesday 6 pm

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Wednesday – Too Cold to Leave the House. Waking Up: 16° High: 28°

Lows on Wednesday will be in the teens.

It will be a bit breezy during the afternoon as a steep pressure gradient moves over our area. Winds will be out of the west/northwest as the surface low moves over the eastern seaboard.

Some clouds will remain overhead during the afternoon.

Extended: We think we will get some return flow (warm air advection from the south), so temperatures should warm up during mid week. Sunshine will also help.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Clearing & Cooler!

Current Radar 

Thursday – Sunny – Waking Up: 31° High: 43°

Seasonable temperatures overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Low temperatures will be just below the freezing mark under a clear sky.

High pressure will build in from the southwest while winds filter in the cold air from the north during the day on Thursday.

Friday – Sunny – Waking Up: 25° High: 49° 

As high pressure moves east it will influence our wind flow on Friday. Winds will switch from out of the north to out of the west/southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

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Some southerly flow with abundant sunshine will help us warm up the next couple of days.

Extended: Enjoy the gorgeous weekend ahead! Plenty of sunshine with high temperatures in the 50s! We are watching our next chance for rain and shot of cold air for early next week. We will keep you updated on timing the next several days. 

Snow?

It’s starting to show up on your apps for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. But know this:

The alleged snowmaker is shown in the models, but none of the assumptions upon which the forecast has been based have been verified. Let’s wait a few days before kinda getting interested in it.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Slowly Departing Today, Severe Weather Arriving Tuesday

Current Radar 

Today – Overcast and Rainy High: 60°

Current radar shows showers with some thunderstorms around our area this morning. The heaviest batch of rain is to our east at the moment. The Storm Prediction Center put a pocket of General Thunderstorms in Middle Tennessee for today. Showers should taper off to the east after lunchtime today. No severe weather today.

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This reason we are seeing this rain – a surface low is accelerating to the northeast over the Great Lakes into New England. The rain is ahead of a weak cold front moving through Tennessee right now. That is why our high temperatures will be a bit cooler today.

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Winds will quickly shift from out of the north to out of the south later today. Southerly winds will help us warm up tomorrow with high temperatures in the low 70s. A much stronger disturbance will swing through later on Tuesday. That is the one we have our eyes on.

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Tuesday – Severe Weather Possible High: 70°

The Storm Prediction Center has put us under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather on Tuesday. 

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Here is a zoomed in look that the National Weather Service posted:

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Temperatures will quickly warm up in the afternoon all thanks to the southerly winds filtering in the warmer air from the Gulf.

tuesday 12 pm

This will all move from west to east. The warmer air with dew points in the upper 50s in the afternoon will add to the instability. We will have the necessary ingredients for strong to severe storms developing in the afternoon. The cold front associated with this next system will be pretty strong.

We need to watch the thunderstorms developing ahead of the line of thunderstorms. Eventually a line of thunderstorms will develop late in the afternoon. Strong winds and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats with this system. The southerly winds will pick up around lunchtime into the mid afternoon hours. Winds will gust over 20 mph at times.

TUESDAY GFS 12 PM

Timing: The National Weather Service posted this great graphic of the timing. Most of the showers with embedded thunderstorms will move in late afternoon into the overnight hours.

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That said, we cannot rule out storms arriving before that 9 PM ETA window opens. Supercell development is possible in this environment, but it’s pretty unimpressive.

Here is the NAM4’s take:

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Thunderstorms will ramp up late in the afternoon.

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By late evening you will hear frequent rumbles of thunder while you are getting into bed. This is when the squall line will form ahead of the cold front. Strong winds are possible with thunderstorms during the evening.

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The front will move through during the overnight hours.

Do not fixate on these ETAs. We will update this through the afternoon on Twitter and again here later tonight.

Wednesday – Rain Leaves then Clearing High: 52°

Most of the rain will be the east when waking up Wednesday morning.

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The pesky clouds will stick around during the afternoon then clear out by Wednesday evening. It will be much cooler on Wednesday. High pressure will then move in late Wednesday into Thursday.

Extended: Low temperatures will be below the freezing mark Wednesday night and Thursday night. Expect sunshine for the end of the week then we will warm up on Friday due to the winds shifting from out of the north to out of the south. This will help filter in warmer air from the Gulf, not to mention the abundant sunshine will help temperatures warm up a bit too. Stay weather aware on Tuesday! We will keep you updated on our Twitter. 

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.