Forecast Blogs

The Weekend

Current Observations and Radar (trying something new)

Friday – Humidity & Rain Chances Return – High 89°

Humidity is back!

This summer, rain has usually come from I-24 in Kentucky, moving SE towards us.

Today, that pattern reverses.

As I write this, a few renegade rain showers are working their way NW from the Chattanooga area.The HRRR model – although possibly exaggerating this feature – shows rain taking I-24 and advancing closer through all day:

Don’t discount these rain chances. The European model also shows a reverse-Sherman attack from the south, but we aren’t allowed to post the Euro model data here because [sarcastic WW2 reference goes here]. The GFS also shows rain coming in along 24. So, it might happen.

The uncertainty has to do with how far N it travels up 24. All the models have it getting to Nashville, then breaking apart. I don’t fall in love with forecasts like these where we are the dividing or ending line.  Our NWS quantifies the rain chance as “slight,” whatever that means, or 20%, whatever that means.

I think a few of us will see a few showers, and maybe a weak thunderstorm. That’s it.

Once the sun goes down, it’ll be hard to make new rain/storms.

Saturday & Sunday – Low Rain Probabilities – Highs 89° & 90°

The pattern looks the same both days: rain is possible both days during the heat of the day. We aren’t expecting a wash out, and most of us will stay dry.


Humidity will be set to “August.”

Next Week: Typical Summertime Pattern

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Categories: Forecast Blogs