Nashville Severe Weather

Current Radar

4 PM ONWARD – Round 1: COMPLETE, Round 2: SEE BELOW

*Updated with latest SPC graphics at 11:30 AM, Severe T-Storm Watch at 2:00 PM, & Evening Outlook at 4:10 PM -Kaiti*

Both Williamson and Davidson Counties are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (area outlined in blue) until 9 PM:

Here’s the breakdown of possible hazards within the time frame of the watch:

Similar to what the SPC graphics below tell us, the biggest concerns this afternoon and evening will be for wind and/or hail events. 

We are still under an enhanced risk for severe weather today through tomorrow morning at 7 AM:

In other terms:

Here’s the categorical risks:

By the numbers, hail and strong winds will remain the biggest risks. The tornado risk has gone down from 5% to 2%, so that’s good news. However, we really can’t completely rule out an isolated tornado. Also, we have been removed from the hatched area that put us in the path of possible 2 inch+ hail. BUT – the main concerns with storms today/tonight are hail (1 inch in diameter+) and damaging winds read more

Current Radar

Theme: we think the worst of all this will be

But, it’s all coming so close to us that we need to:

Round #1: Missing Us To The East

The storm system we described earlier today as the “first big hairy line of thunderstorms” continues to move SE on a path to miss us completely: read more

Current Radar

The weather today and tomorrow will defined by the heat and the storms. So, we’ll dispense with the usual format accordingly.

The Heat – High Today 95°, Tuesday 93°

Afternoon heat index values will range between 100° to 105°. read more

Current Radar

Monday – High 95°; Storms North?

The heat index will soar past 100° Monday afternoon.

If you must wear denim, choose jorts.

The Storm Prediction Center expects severe thunderstorms to be ongoing tomorrow night to our north (this bad news for the Home Run Derby in Cincinnati). read more

Current Radar

Today – Scattered Strong/Severe Thunderstorms Possible – High 94°

A short wave will produce showers and thunderstorms for northern parts of Illinois into eastern Tennessee today.

The bulk of the rain is expected to stay east of I-65 today with heavy rainfall, damaging wings, and hail as the main threats. We remain drawn on the edge of the biggest risk area, but this area is often revised by the Storm Prediction Center through day, so it may shift (hopefully away from us). read more

Current Radar

Tonight – Steamy

HRRR was wrong today; afternoon rain/storms didn’t form here (they were southeast of us).

Summer makes liars of weather models.

When the sun sets, any rain chance will set with it. read more

Current Radar

Today – Classic Summertime Surprise Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon – High 91°

It’s hot, it’s humid, so much so, everyone unfavorite game of thunderstorm uncertainty is being played. When, where, how bad? Yeah, we don’t know. It’s like guessing where exactly in an about-to-boil big pot the first water bubble will surface. read more

Current Radar

THIS EVENING: 88° by 7 PM 

Storms are approaching the TN/KY border to our north. Check-in on Twitter for updates. 

Both the HRRR and NAM4 models have a chance for rain this evening:

Both models are picking up on a frontal boundary sagging south into northern Tennessee. If the boundary can hold together, a few showers and maybe a scattered storm are possible, especially earlier in the evening while the sun is still up. read more

Current Radar

THIS EVENING: 88° by 7 PM 

Things should be dry for your evening plans!

It’ll be warm, though. Overnight lows will be in the low 70°s.

FRIDAY – Another Hot & Mostly Dry Day – Wake Up: 73°, High: 93º

Slim rain chances will follow us into tomorrow, as well:

The NAM4 model isn’t picking up on much of anything, but its not impossible that we could see a scattered shower throughout the day. read more

Current Radar

THIS EVENING: 86° by 7 PM 

Conditions will be warm this evening thanks to the sunshine we’ll get throughout the day.

But, the rain will continue to stay away:

It’s not out of the question that we’ll catch a shower or storm overnight, though chances aren’t overly impressive: read more