Cloudy Today, Cloudier Tomorrow, Rain Thursday

Current Radar 

Personal Note: This is my last blog here at NashSevereWx.com.

I can’t tell you how much it has meant to me that David, Will, and Andrew have trusted me enough to let me tell y’all about the weather for the past year or so.

I really don’t know where the time has gone!

The two new interns are smart & stellar…you’re in great hands.

If you want to keep up with me, you can follow me on Twitter: @KaitiBlakeWx *Warning: nerdy sense of humor*

Thanks for reading 🙂

~Kaiti

TONIGHT – 70° by 6 PM

Upper 60°s and just a few clouds around for your Tuesday evening plans.

Skies will stay partly cloudy this evening and overnight.

Temperatures will be mild at best tonight… Lows will fall just to the upper 50°s.

WEDNESDAY – Wake Up: 57°, High: 77°

Tomorrow will start mild & wind up being quite warm!

Wednesday will also be our last rain-free day, as the bulk of rainfall and thunderstorm activity will stay to our west.

Some passing showers and storms to our west could graze us in the morning:

However, if we get anything out of that, it would just be a spotty shower or two.

The rest of the day tomorrow will just be cloudy & warm, with highs in the upper 70°s!

Our winds will also be a bit more breezy, 5-15 mph out of the south.

Things will be even more mild tomorrow night, with lows staying in the low 60°s.

THURSDAY – Wake Up: 61°, High: 78°

By Thursday, the stream of moisture that will have been bothering states to our west all week will finally be moving more our direction:

Looks like rain will hold-off for us until later in the afternoon and into the evening.

High temperatures before any rain will return to near 80° Thursday afternoon.

LOOKING AHEAD: Showers & Storms Stick With Us

The weather pattern that is causing so much wet weather across the central part of the country today will be what slides our way Thursday.

This is not really a single weather system, but rather a sequence of weather systems, steered by the jet stream.

That’s why we’re looking at several days of rain chances here. This whooooooole scenario is a slow-mover!

We should get to dry-off by Sunday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rainy Thursday. Nice Weekend!

Current Radar 

TONIGHT – 40° by 7 PM

It’ll be pretty chilly by about dinnertime.

The rain will have ended, but skies will remain cloudy:

We’ll wake-up tomorrow to temperatures in the mid 30°s.

FRIDAY – Wake Up: 36°, High: 50°

An area of high pressure will start to nudge-in tomorrow behind today’s rainmaker:

It will take most of the day to settle-in overhead, so we’ll still have cloudy skies around for the first part of the day.

We’ll hit the upper 40°s for highs tomorrow afternoon.

Partly cloudy skies, but no rain, for your Friday evening plans.

Overnight lows will tumble to near the freezing mark.

SATURDAY – Wake Up: 34°, High: 63°

After waking up on a cold note Saturday, we’ll warm up pretty nicely to the low 60°s.

A system will be swinging by to our north:

It won’t bring us any rain, but it will keep some clouds around during the day.

Saturday will be a very pleasant day, regardless!

LOOKING AHEAD: Next Chance for Rain Could be Next Tuesday. Stay Tuned!

 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Back to the 50°s!

Current Radar 

TONIGHT – 52° by 7 PM

This evening will be pleasant, with dinnertime temperatures in the low 50°s, and skies will be mostly clear.

A southerly wind will really settle-in overnight. Skies will stay mostly clear through the morning hours & lows will fall to the mid 40°s.

No fog issues tomorrow morning.

FRIDAY – Wake Up: 45°, High: 69°

Great end to the work week tomorrow, as another mostly sunny day is expected.

It will be very windy, though. So windy that there is a wind advisory in place from 6 AM to 6 PM:

Sustained winds will be 15-20 mph, but wind gusts will get close to 35 mph, maybe even 40 mph at times.

We may see a few extra clouds around, as a south wind sends warmer air & increased moisture our way:

It’ll be even warmer tomorrow afternoon as highs make it all the way to the upper 60°s.

Skies will turn mostly cloudy overnight Friday into Saturday.

SATURDAY – Wake Up: 54°, High: 67°

Two of our big models push some light rain into the area on Saturday morning. Here’s one of those:

Saturday looks cloudy & sort of blah, but not a washout.

We will probably be dodging some showers throughout the day, though.

It’ll be another very warm day, too… Highs will be back to the upper 60°s.

LOOKING AHEAD: Cold Front on Sunday Keeps Us Rainy Through Monday

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Cold Night Ahead

Current Radar 

TONIGHT – 26° by 6 PM

Snow will be ending this evening!

Lows will drop to around 15° overnight.

Yeah. That’s cold.

Winds will stay in the 5-10 mph range, knocking “feels like” temps into the single digits. That’s very dangerous if you’re not dressed properly.

Road conditions will continue to stay iffy through tomorrow morning. Pair that with the frigid temperatures, and it just looks like a good night to stay put, if you can.

WEDNESDAY – Wake Up: 17°, High: 30°

While we’ll be rid of the snow tomorrow, we won’t be able to shake the cold.

Highs will once again stay below freezing.

Skies will be slow to clear tomorrow afternoon. We’ll stay mostly cloudy.

Wind chills will once again be an annoying issues. It’ll “feel like” the single digits early in the morning, and into the teens and low 20°s in the daytime.

Brrrrr.

THURSDAY – Wake Up: 21°, High: 37°

Thursday morning will start in the teens, but we’ll finally make it above freezing by the afternoon.

Models show a quick burst of snow moving through early on Thursday morning:

One model thinks it misses us, and another has it moving through late Wednesday night.

Either way, this doesn’t look like a big deal.

LOOKING AHEAD: Clouds Hang Around Through Friday

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Nice Weekend; Snow Chances Mon-Tue Look Meh

Current Radar 

TONIGHT – 43° by 6 PM

Not as cold as last night.

SATURDAY – Sunshine, Few More Clouds – Wake Up: 29°, High: 51°

A “moisture-starved shortwave” arrives, delivering only morning clouds, and, you guessed it, no rain.

More clouds show up Saturday night, which will trap the “heat” and keep the low temp from dropping too far.

SUNDAY – Sunny, More Clouds Arriving Late – Wake Up: 32°, High: 55°

More of the same. A pretty nice weekend continues. Pretty mild for commercial watching. I mean football!

Things Change Monday

Monday, a giant trough will dig deep into the middle of the country — including us. That’ll pave the way for a series of disturbances from the northwest, called clippers, to deliver snow chances.

With the stage set, we’re looking to see if any clippers will show up while the trough has been dug.

For Monday and Tuesday, there should be a clipper system arriving along and east I-24, again putting us on the border of a snow event. However, this is more likely to be a potential snow event for the plateau, with little for us.

The Euro model dusts us Monday night. The GFS (below) does the same thing. If the “snow” comes Monday afternoon, it’ll probably be only by rain. It’ll need to arrive at night to be snow.

With (1) warm temps this weekend and (2) at/near-freezing temps at the surface during the possible snowfall, snow should struggle to stick to anything. The latest sounding for Monday night from the GFS model suggests there may even be a slight inversion around 1000-2000 feet, giving the snow more time to melt as it falls.

One of the many forecast challenges is that this light-precip making clipper system wants to linger Monday and Tuesday, meaning the models think it can produce between 1″ and 2″ during that time; however, temperatures do not want to allow for it to stick or accumulate to cause too many problems. There is no current indication this will be a sleddable or cancel-stuff worthy event.

Clipper systems often disappoint. Usually, they have the temperature profile to produce good snow, but they lack the moisture — this looks like the moisture-starved type of clipper.

However, there is precedent for these systems to surprise us by delivering more than we thought we would get, although those are pretty rare.

Usually, clippers make you:

Stay tuned. More on this over the weekend.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Sunny & Cool Headed Into the Weekend

Current Radar 

 

TONIGHT – 38° by 6 PM

Clear skies overnight and pretty calm winds will help temperatures to fall a good bit.

We’ll be waking-up to the mid 20°s tomorrow morning.

FRIDAY – Wake Up: 25°, High: 50°

Tomorrow will be equally as nice, as high pressure settles-in to our west:

Highs will begin to increase just a few degrees, but we’ll still be below 50° in the afternoon.

SATURDAY – Wake Up: 29°, High: 51°

We’ll stay dry headed into the weekend.

A passing upper-level disturbance will send a few more clouds our way, but that’s it:

Highs Saturday will be in the low 50°s.

LOOKING AHEAD: A Nice Weekend…and then, Monday

Models agree on a low pressure system swinging in from Canada and into the Northeast early next week. As it passes to our north, it could swing some rain and snow our way.

Any snowfall looks minimal: i.e. less than one inch over a 48-hour period.

Stay tuned this weekend for better thoughts on our rain & flurries chances.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Cooling Off

Current Radar 

WEDNESDAY – Wake Up: 49°, High: 55°

Once storms fully pass through overnight, some showers may linger very early, but we should be drying-off by your morning commute:

It will be cloudy to start the day, but we’ll clear-out nicely by the afternoon:

A cold front behind all our storms tonight will cool us down tomorrow. Actually, we’ll cool-down from the 60°s tonight to the low 50°s early in the morning, and then we’ll briefly pop-up to the mid 50°s in the afternoon.

Lows will fall below freezing for the first time in what probably feels like forever tomorrow night.

THURSDAY – Wake Up: 30°, High: 43°

High pressure will start to nudge-in Thursday:

High pressure is our friend! It will keep us dry and sunny, but also cooler.

Friday will be similar to Thursday: sunny skies & seasonable temperatures.

By the way….Super Bowl Sunday looks dry & overall pleasant.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Severe Storms En Route

Current Radar 

TODAY – Wind Advisory All Day. Severe Weather Tonight. – High: 74°

Overview: We’ve got several things happening today. This morning, we’ve dealt with fog. It’s going to be incredibly windy today – windy enough to have put us under a Wind Advisory. Finally, severe storms remain the forecast for tonight, all thanks to the system below:

Plenty of fog around this morning…enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory, but it expired around 8 AM and should be clearing or already have cleared.

At 9 AM, a Wind Advisory went into effect. It’ll last until midnight.

Sustained winds will be in the 20-30 mph range. Wind gusts 35-45 mph will be felt in spots.

So, yes…bad hair day. Also, keep an eye on any dead trees/trees in loose soil. They will come down easier today.

If you drive a high-profile vehicle, you’ll need to drive extra carefully today, especially if you’re on an east-west road like 840, I-40, 96 in Franklin, OHB in Brentwood, or the north side of Briley Parkway. Winds will be coming from the south and hitting your vehicle broad-side.

Some scattered showers will be around this morning:

We don’t expect these to be anything more than rain-makers. Storms hold-off until this afternoon at the earliest. 

Storms

This morning, we find ourselves in an ENHANCED risk for severe thunderstorms: 

As we have been telling you, the main concerns with any storms we see today are damaging winds. This means there is a 30% probability we will see damaging thunderstorm winds – 58 mph or greater – within 25 miles of us.

There is a 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of us. Just to our west, in the yellow hatched area, they have a 10% chance for seeing stronger tornadoes (EF2+) today. That area is way too close for comfort.

There is a 5% probability we will see 1 inch diameter hail (size of a quarter) or larger within 25 miles of us today.

It continues to look like we will see a squall line – strong line of thunderstorms – as a cold front pushes through tonight. This line will be the last of the severe stuff to move through. It will bring primarily a wind threat: powerful & damaging straight-line winds from squall lines can sometimes do damage you would attribute to a tornado. Also: it’s not unheard of to have weaker-end tornadoes embedded in squall lines. Either way, the wind threat is going to be greatest when the squall line arrives.

When will that be? Here’s what NWS Nashville says:

This lines-up perfectly with what all models are spitting-out this morning.

But….(there’s always a but)….There Could be Storms BEFORE then….

Aside from tonight’s squall line, another concern is the potential for some isolated storms out ahead of — meaning arriving before — the line. The HRRR seems like this idea of those supercells developing before/during the evening rush hour.

These storms have the potential to become supercells. Supercells not only bring the potential for hail & damaging winds of their own, but also better chances for tornadoes to develop. Current model runs suggest the most severe-supportive environment will stay west of us — but only barely west of us. We will closely watch this unfold through the afternoon.

Takeaways

We could potentially see a mixed-bag of severe weather today. It all depends on how unstable our atmosphere can get by this afternoon. Less stable: we’ll just be waiting on the squall line tonight. More unstable: we could be dealing with some of those isolated, strong’/supercell storms in the afternoon before the squall line gets here tonight. We’ll be updating this like crazy on Twitter this afternoon and tonight.

We’ll have a good idea of which way this will swing in the next few hours…

If the cloud cover can break-up, and we can get a little sunshine going, that will help to push us more toward unstable. Radar trends heading into the afternoon will tell us a lot, as well.

Keep up with us on Twitter today. Note — no warnings are ever posted to this website, but you will find them @NashSevereWx on Twitter and on local TV stations. Follow/Consult multiple reliable sources for your weather information today, and always.

The Rest of the Week….

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

NHL All-Star Forecast & an Update on Storms Next Week

Current Radar 

TONIGHT – 46° by 6 PM 

Temperatures in the 40°s by this evening will drop to the mid 30°s overnight.

A south wind will settle-in overnight, as well, helping to keep our lows “warmer,” and setting the stage for a pleasant weekend.

SATURDAY – Wake Up: 35°, High: 63°

After a cold start tomorrow, mostly sunny skies and that southerly breeze will send afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 60°s.

Warm weather lovers, rejoice!

Overnight temperatures will trend warmer as well, with lows dropping to just below the 50° mark.

SUNDAY – NHL All-Star Game! – Wake Up: 50°, High: 64°

The “warmer” trend will carry-over into Sunday.

Skies will turn cloudy, especially by the afternoon, ahead of our next chance for rain.

A passing low pressure/disturbance will send showers our way:

I don’t expect rain to become an annoyance until late in the afternoon and early in the evening. We also cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, but nothing strong is expected.

Check back Sunday morning to see if you need to take an umbrella or rain coat with you to the game, and you’ll be all set.

If you’ve traveled-in and are leaving us on Monday, some showers may still be hanging around:

They’ll clear-out by the afternoon, and then we turn our attention to Tuesday.

Looking Ahead: Highs Holding Steady in the 60°s

Storms Tuesday? Looking Like It.

It looks as though our nice, warm weekend will be setting the stage for a threat of severe storms by early next week.

Models (and the National Weather Service) aren’t letting-up on this. In fact, our risk for severe storms on Tuesday has been bumped-up from where it was yesterday: 

We are in the red shaded area, which means we’ve got a 30% chance for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of us on Tuesday.

Weather models are in pretty spectacular agreement that a strong low pressure system will graze us to the north, dragging some strong to severe storms with it Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. It looks like a squall line (nerds call it a “quasi-linear convective system”) may come streaking in from the west some time during the afternoon or evening hours Tuesday.

Again – while 5 days away may not seem like that long – it is an eternity in weather terms. There is plenty of time for things to change, including timing and our overall risk.

Don’t let this – or anything else you see floating around on the internet – scare you. You know what to do: have your severe weather plan ready, have a way to get severe weather alerts, and make sure to keep checking back with us. (Editor’s note: Our Concern Level remains: Interested, Certainly Not Panicked).

We got you, man (or lady).

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

A Warmer Weekend! NHL All-Star Forecast! Storms Next Week?

Current Radar 

TONIGHT – 49° by 6 PM 

Skies will be partly cloudy this evening as clouds from today hang around.

Evening temperatures will fall to the mid 40°s, but overnight lows will drop all the way to the upper 20°s.

FRIDAY – Wake Up: 31°, High: 48°

As that weak cold front swings through early tomorrow, there could be some flurries mixed-in with some rain to our east, near the Plateau:

And none for Gretchen Weiners…errr, none for us.

A light north wind & highs in the upper 40°s will keep things cool.

By the evening, things will start to change a bit.

Winds will turn to the south overnight, and lows will be a bit warmer. We’ll wake up to the mid 30°s Saturday morning.

 SATURDAY – Wake Up: 35°, High: 63°

Saturday looks like a pretty fabulous start to the weekend! Afternoon highs will be in the low 60°s, close to 15° higher than “normal” highs this time of year.

A south wind & mostly sunny skies will really settle-in, which will help to warm us up:

But, it’ll also help to start gradually increasing moisture & our dew point temps.

Dew points will start climbing from the 20°s Friday into the 40°s Saturday and Sunday.

NHL All-Star Game – Sunday 

Expect Friday and Saturday evening to be cool, but rain-free.

Cloud cover will increase by Sunday morning. Scattered showers will be possible by the afternoon, becoming more numerous by the evening.

This looks like just rain, no thunderstorms. We suggest keeping an umbrella with you on Sunday!

Again, no travel issues expected.

Looking Ahead: There’s the NHL All-Star Game Rain…

Okay. Storms Next Week.

Models continue to agree that a pretty strong storm system will be in the vicinity next Monday & Tuesday.

For us, Tuesday looks to be the day we could see some storms:

Being in the yellow area means we’ve got a 15% chance that we could see some severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of us.

While confidence is growing in this scenario actually playing-out, confidence in timing is still low.

I don’t want to start throwing times at you now, only to change them a little bit later. Then, we’re all confused.

So, just store this nugget of info away for now. If this holds through the next couple of days, we’ll be able to start breaking specifics down for you.

As always-stay tuned!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.