Bring on the Sunshine
Our somewhat chilly day will continue on with cool temperatures tonight and tomorrow morning (temps may even dip into the upper 20s during the early AM hours).
Chilly Tomorrow Morning, Right Back into the 60s by Tomorrow Afternoon
Cool Friday, Warming Up Into Next Week
March 2017, Day 2 – Much Cooler and Calmer
Here’s a breakdown on the tornado damage. Sorry about my sleepy voice. Been a long few days. –David
No injuries. No fatalities.
Temperatures will remain in the “near normal” category through tomorrow, until a rebound of warm, southerly air begins meandering towards us on Saturday. 60ºs are pretty nice for the beginning of March, and with how comfortable we have been, it is hard to complain.
Sunny Skies and Seasonal Temps Return Tomorrow
It looks like a tornado started in Williamson County in the Monticello subdivision, then moved through Cool Springs, into Brentwood and north of Nolensville/Cane Ridge, then Antioch and Percy Priest Lake. It’s not yet clear whether NWS will say it was two tornadoes from the same storm, or one long tornado. It’ll be rated at least EF-1. This is all preliminary and subject to revision.
Tornado Watch In Effect Until 10 AM
Remember, a “Watch” covers a large area and means “be ready.”
A “Warning” (which we will post to Twitter @NashSevereWx — which you can find by clicking the top banner — but not to the blog itself) means take cover: the warned severe weather event is imminent or occurring in a small, specific area.
ETA 7 AM to 9 AM, Give or Take a Few Hours. Damaging Winds Most Likely, Hail & Tornado Also Possible
Quick Look Forecast
Wednesday
What: Damaging Winds (Main Threat), Large Hail, & (a Smaller) Tornado Threat
Storms will form a long line on radar, called a squall line, which will quickly speed through Wednesday morning. They should be packing quite the punch:
- Damaging straight-line winds are the most likely severe weather threat.
- Large hail is the next most likely hazard.
- Less likely, but still possible, is a brief tornado embedded in the squall line.
The probability of any of these happening withing 25 miles of you is 30%.
Updated ETAs for Wednesday Morning’s Squall Line with Severe Storm Potential
Quick Look Forecast
A Break in the Rain Tuesday Night as Strong/Severe Storms Build to our West
A significant severe weather event is setting up today and tonight along and north of the Ohio River.
This is the system that will set off storms with severe weather potential for us Wednesday morning.
Focus is On Wednesday: Severe Weather
Quick Look Forecast
Rain This Morning, Lull This Evening
It has been a soggy commute to work and school with showers a few rumbles of thunder. The HRRR model below shows how the rest of the day may play out on radar, and where we might get a break this evening in the wet weather:
Wet Again Tomorrow, Severe Storms Possible Wednesday
Quick Look Forecast
Tuesday Morning Rain
Latest run of the HRRR has showers entering during the early AM hours.
These showers will likely be scattered and continue through the entire day. An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible as well.
Wet Monday, Wet/Stormy Tuesday, Strong/Severe Storms Possible Wednesday
Rainy Monday
Light rain will arrive while we sleep, and continue through the morning commute. The HRRR model thinks this rain will last through mid-morning:
Other models, particularly the NAM3 model, think the rain could linger off and on into Monday afternoon.
Nice Today, Rain Monday & Tuesday. All Eyes on Severe Weather Wednesday.
Growing Concerns About Storms Wednesday
But first, let’s talk today thru Tuesday.
Sunday
Sun this morning will turn into clouds later today and tonight. The HRRR model shows light rain approaching by midnight.
Expect light rain while we sleep tonight.
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