Forecast Blogs

Sunny Today, Discussion About Tomorrow’s Winter Weather Potential

About Last Night

Our local National Weather Service Office will be conducting multiple storm surveys today as a result of last nights severe weather. One of the areas that they will be looking into is in Williamson County. Once we learn their findings, we will let you know.

Sunny Skies and Cooler Temps to end the Week

Happy Friday! Today, expect for our weather to actually feel somewhat normal for the time of year. Highs will be in the 50°s with overnight temps falling below freezing.

Sunny skies may help warm us up today, but a chilly wind from the north will help to keep us cool. Winds through the day are expected to be in the 10-15 mph range with gusts up to 20 mph.

If you plan to go downtown to see some of the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament tonight, you will want a jacket as you walk to Bridgestone Arena.

Freeze Warning From 10 PM Tonight Through 8 AM Tomorrow Morning

Breakdown of Saturday’s Wintry Mix Potential. Accumulations Currently Expected to be Very Little/Nothing to Under 1″ (if any).

Several uncertainties remain surrounding tomorrow’s potential rain and wintry mix. This is a complex forecast that we will be keeping an eye on over the next 24 to 48 hours. Things can change with each model run. Be sure to check the forecast often throughout today and tomorrow for the latest thinking.

What do the models say?

The models aren’t saying the same thing.

Some models, like the NAM4, show us getting showers as early as Saturday morning, those hanging around through the day, and next to nothing for us in terms of wintry mix and snow Saturday night.

NAM4 Run From 3 AM Saturday Through 4 AM Sunday

On the other hand, we have models like the GFS that say no showers or anything until the late afternoon/early evening hours, with a gradual transition to snow by the overnight hours.

GFS Run For Midnight Saturday Night

This just displays some of the uncertainties surrounding tomorrow. For the most part, models are showing a “later” onset of rain than “early.” Many models that showed a Saturday “snowmageddon” at the beginning of the week have since backed down on snow accumulation amounts.

General Takeaways

  • At first we thought “no rain” Saturday morning, but with each run of the HRRR and NAM3 models, light rain (with maybe a few wintry mix pockets mixed in) remains possible then. Most of the precip will occur after noon into Saturday night/overnight Sunday morning.
  • The specific forecast problem involves uncertainties about timing of the rain, amount of the rain (there’s not that much), and when temps will get below freezing aloft and at the surface. Those models that like our snow chances see very modest accumulations occurring well after dark Saturday night (the vagueness of the phrase speaks to the uncertainty).
  • In terms of accumulation, here is what our local NWS has to say:
“All indications are that snowfall amounts will remain under an inch in areas west of the Cumberland Plateau, with the Cumberland Plateau receiving 1 to 2 inches of accumulation, mainly after midnight Saturday night.” (Note: we are “west of the Cumberland Plateau).
  • Thanks to the recent warm temperatures, even if we do see a wintry mix, it will be difficult for any accumulation to occur; at least for the first few hours.
  • This forecast could easily change in the next 48 hours. There are too many variables and uncertainties at this point. Our local NWS once again displays this uncertainty:

We aren’t “making a call” or “predicting” under one inch of snow, as if we’re wearing a blindfold, tossing a dart at a dartboard, and saying where we think the dart hit. The point is “under one inch” is what we think we will see right now, but please check back tonight and tomorrow as we work to adjust (up or down) that anticipated total. This is a process, not a guessing game.

Be sure to stay with us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the latest information surrounding tomorrow’s rain/snow potential.

Cooler Temps Hang Around into Next Week

A pretty average weather pattern will set in as we transition into next week. We have a few chances of rain to start out the week (temps will remain “warm” enough to suggest that we will just see rain at this point).

To sum things up, here is how our local NWS described our upcoming weather pattern:

“Temperatures for the next 7 days will remain at or below normal, so we can expect more normal March weather for the foreseeable future.”

Don’t Forget About Daylight Saving Time This Sunday

Be sure to spring your clocks forward before heading to bed on Saturday Night.


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Categories: Forecast Blogs