With all the talk about severe weather and heavy rain last week, Mother Nature is giving us a break for awhile. Speaking of last week’s rain, a new drought monitor has been released:
Latest US Drought Monitor has completely removed our 2 counties from drought after last week's rain. Seems like we should celebrate! ^al pic.twitter.com/oIilB9jSgU
And just like that the majority of our showers are drifting off to the east. HRRR wants to bring a little bit more rain in the early evening, but any more rain we may see should be very light and more of a nuisance than anything.
Have outdoor plans tomorrow? You might want to reconsider, as a decent opportunity for rain will enter stage right during the midday hours. The latest GFS shows the rain’s evolution:
Some of this activity could linger into Thursday AM, but the thing that’ll be most noticeable will be temperatures. A cold front that’s initiating these rain chances tomorrow will drop our temps back into the 20s and 30s overnight and the 40s for daytime highs.
Notice anything in particular about the graphic above? We currently have only a slim chance of showers on Wednesday; other than that NO precipitation is in the forecast. Our prolonged dreary days FINALLY appear to be coming to an end.
Writer’s note: A complex forecast for much of the southern U.S. is playing out today, and in terms of us here, it should be much more subdued than areas to the southeast. If you have friends or family who are visiting/live in southern Georgia or northern Florida, today is a day, more important than any, to be weather vigilant. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH RISK (5 out of 5) for severe weather of all types and hasn’t done so since 2014.
Update: more showers and storms are developing to our southwest once again. There is uncertainty regarding the arrival of rain tonight, but we think prime time is somewhere between 2 AM and 6 AM. These storms could produce heavy downpours but widespread severe weather will stay well to our south. Here’s the latest HRRR model (which has done a nice job recently) on predicting tonight’s rain/storm arrival:
Well for some of us, we won the lottery and got a glimpse of the sun today. Some of us though, still were not able to.
All of us will see the sun again someday. Quiet evening tonight for those with Friday Night plans. Temps will fall into the low 50s overnight.
Current Radar
Regarding heavier rain/flooding potential…
NWS Nashville thinks areas that are low-lying or have poor drainage issues will be most at risk for water accumulation:
A FEW PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
Clouds will continue to hang around into the evening hours. The good news is that showers won’t move in until the overnight hours, so any early evening plans you have should remain fairly dry.
Latest run of the HRRR shows showers arriving after midnight and increasing through the early AM hours.
A surface low is expected to track from the Gulf Coast northward along the Mississippi River, increasing shower/thunderstorm activity across much of the mid-south. Rainfall here in Nashville could accumulate to 1″+ in some spots, considering the strength of this system. No severe weather is expected at this time.
GFS Forecast, Wed. 6PM – Fri. 12PM
Let’s compare rainfall totals…the GFS model (only computer guidance) versus the Weather Prediction Center’s human-refined forecast:
GFS Forecasted Rainfall through Friday 12PM…
…versus WPC Rainfall Forecast through 6AM Friday
Bottom line: it appears that 1″ of rain by Friday at noon is likely. Whether some spots receive 1.50″ or greater seems to be based on rainfall rates, which could be fairly steady on Thursday.
NWS Nashville thinks Saturday night through Sunday could be a bit bumpy:
In the ext fcst, An unsettled and mild pattern can be expected through the period, for the most part. A strong storm system will bring showers and some tstm activity Sat nt and Sun. An upper level low will track across the southeastern U.S. by Monday and may bring some cooler temps and some additional rainfall.
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