“Northwest Flow” is weather nerd for winds blowing from the north west. Our rain/mix/snow will be riding NW flow overnight through Saturday night.
Saturday will be cold. We won’t get higher than the low 40°s.
Overnight Tonight – Saturday Morning
A Freeze Warning is in effect from 10 PM to 8 AM. Temps should dip just below freezing after midnight and stay there until the sun comes up.
The HRRR model thinks a rain/snow mix will show up tomorrow morning around sunrise, hang around a few hours, then gone by 8 AM:
The NAM3 model disagrees, thinking the precip will hold off until mid/late morning and go off and on as rain (not mix/snow) through the afternoon, here it is from 2 AM to 3 PM:
This would be a very light, very drizzly, c-o-l-d rainfall. Blergy.
Saturday Afternoon/Evening: Is It Gonna Snow?
Let’s look under the hood and review the models!
For example, the NAM4 model is not impressed. It’s got very little precip, a few flakes/mix (mostly rain) flying around after sunset, but pretty much no accumulating snow at all. Behold:
The GFS model has very light snowfall from sunset Saturday to sunrise Sunday:
This would be a grand total of 0.3″:
That’s zero-point-three inches.
Other models are more snow-optimistic.
The SREF (which I wrote about yesterday) has 1.32″, but I think that’s waaaay overestimating it, counting sleet and wintry mix as snow.
The Euro is the most optimistic, thinking there will be under 1″ north of I-40, a little more south of I-40.
The Canadian model looks like the Euro, generally under 1″.
That’s where our NWS has landed. Less than 1″.
Remember, <1″ means less than one inch, which includes 0.
If/When the snow starts to fall, it will melt at first. I think there will be a slushy, grass accumulating, brief snowfall, with limited travel impacts very late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The low is in the mid/upper 20°s before sunrise Sunday, so there may be a few slick spots. We’ll be saying “bridges and overpasses” alot.
Well will tweet like crazy tomorrow @NashSevereWx. NWS advises to “Please continue to stay informed of the weather forecast this weekend and be ready to adjust your travel plans as needed, especially for Saturday night across Middle Tennessee.”
After the “Snow”
If anything falls Sunday morning, it’ll melt pretty fast thanks to sunshine and temps close to 50°. (Oh, and we are losing an hour of sleep).
The Euro is back and forth about rain chances Monday. The snow chances look even more uncertain.
However, the GFS model thinks we will see more rainfall during the day, possibly changing to snow well after dark. We sometimes get snow from this, but this is often the type of snow forecast that busts.
Temps look seasonably cool next week.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs