A Freeze Warning has been issued by NWS Nashville, once again, for Thursday morning:
Dew points/moisture will increase through the day on Friday, along with high temperatures in the low 60s. By Friday afternoon, showers will be on the increase, with a chance for isolated thunderstorms by evening. No severe weather is expected.
Have you seen any snow today? These will not have far-reaching effects, except for closely resembling the inside of a snow globe.
Good news: We are expecting sunshine by tomorrow. Any light precip from the flurries tonight could leave a few unexpected slick spots on secondary roads tomorrow morning, but no widespread impacts are expected.
Update: If you have tickets for tonight’s Predators game, a few sprinkles are possible, but the heaviest rain has moved out!
Another Forecast Uncertainty, Explained
Tonight, cooler air will push into the region. Why is this important? Any leftover moisture from this system, wrapping around the backside of the low, could result in a mixed bag of precipitation (primarily along and east of I-65). Most models, as of now, are keeping this as all rain; however, to see or not see snow/sleet will depend on mid and low level air temperatures…something we’ll have to monitor this evening and overnight.
According to the HRRR model, around 9 AM Monday, a rain/snow mix will be crossing the Mississippi River near the Missouri bootheel:
This timing matches well with the NAM3 model, which thinks the rain will be here around lunchtime, and last for a few hours:
A return to Daylight Savings Time all year long would unite America.
This satellite image taken at 8:45 AM isn’t showing clouds over Tennessee. That’s the snow on the ground that went south of us last night.
The snow that formed the basis of tonight’s Winter Weather Advisory has already come and gone.
This afternoon, we wrote that the approaching snow band would get here by 6 PM, and be gone by 9 PM. “If this model is off by 30-40 miles, or by a few hours, we could alot more, or alot less, than this, depending on which way it’s off,” we wrote.
We are included in the advisory. NWS expects up to 1″ of slushy snow for us.
The HRRR model agrees:
Let’s slow that down.
By 6 PM, the rain/snow (probably snow) will arrive from the west.
Last night, we wrote that the HRRR model predicted a “rain/snow mix” that was to end around 8 AM (this will turn out to be off by 2 hours, and off because it was all snow, no rain). The NAM3 model predicted precip will hold off until mid morning (it had the timing a bit better, but was way off on the precip type). Several models did not have this AM snow at all.
“Northwest Flow” is weather nerd for winds blowing from the north west. Our rain/mix/snow will be riding NW flow overnight through Saturday night.
Saturday will be cold. We won’t get higher than the low 40°s.
Our local National Weather Service Office will be conducting multiple storm surveys today as a result of last nights severe weather. One of the areas that they will be looking into is in Williamson County. Once we learn their findings, we will let you know.
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