It is going to rain Monday.
We think it’ll start in the morning.
The HRRR model predicts rain will start in the wee hours of Monday morning and last through the morning rush hour:
The GFS model agrees. It predicts a lot of rain in the morning.
Surface high pressure will move east today. This means south winds and warmer temps, about 10° to 15° higher than yesterday. Some clouds will be mixed in.
Clouds increase tonight ahead of the next rain system, due tomorrow.
…APRIL FOOLS.
Writer’s Note:
Today is the 15th Annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State University. Caroline and I are ferociously taking notes and learning more…hopefully to provide you with better discussions and products in the future!
After the active weather pattern we’ve seen this past week, we will finally be getting a few pleasant weather days.
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Overnight, the Storm Prediction Center removed us from the “Moderate Risk” (4 of 5) and fell back to an “Enhanced Risk” (3 out of 5), and now, this morning at 8 AM, down to “Slight Risk” (2 out of 5) for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes today.
Hey y’all.
First, everyone take a deep breath. Like any good forecast, below you will find important details, nuance, and uncertainties.
Resist any tendency to panic at the details that may scare you, or ignore the things which may limit the threat.
Partly cloudy skies this morning will gradually become mostly cloudy by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures today will approach 80º!
Overview
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a majority of our area to an “Enhanced Risk” (3 out of 5) for seeing severe thunderstorms tomorrow. A small portion of Davidson and Williamson Counties, mainly west of I-65, are now in a “Moderate Risk” (4 out of 5).
Another calm day on Wednesday, but temperatures will warm into the upper 70s as winds become more southerly by evening ahead of our next batch of storms.
Let’s start with the “What, When, Where”…
Expect a few showers, and we can’t completely rule out lightning, but expect a quiet night ahead.
While we could see a few lingering showers in the early AM on Tuesday, the majority of the showers should be pushed to our east and out of our area. Expecting for gradual clearing to occur tomorrow, but the majority of the clouds will remain over our area.
Timing of Severe Weather: 2 PM Through 10 PM
This ETA is broad/wide because of significant uncertainty. The models do not agree. Most, however, have 2 rounds of storms.
Round 1: Mid-to-late afternoon, as storms cluster and move into Middle TN from north MS. Do not look for a specific timing, like 3:30 PM vs 5:30 PM, because the risk of misleading you with a specific time is too high.
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