The HRRR (above) shows rain to the southwest moving northeast. It begins to dissipate when headed our way. We can’t trust the model to be 100% actuate so prepare for possible pop-up showers in the afternoon and evening.
A frontal passage from early this morning cleared the showers and storms out of our area. High pressure is centered over our region today and will keep the weather dry and sunny. HRRR expects no rain in the Davidson and Williamson Co. area. It does show some small showers pop up briefly around 5 PM, but they go around us.
The troughing pattern that brought us scattered showers and storms yesterday is still in full swing today. What does that mean for us? This morning it brought us more of the same: rain, and plenty of it. It will continue to do so throughout the afternoon. The HRRR expects it will leave us alone at last this evening.
This morning’s sounding is showing a lot of moisture moving into the area that will help to generate thunderstorms, some severe. Up to this point, there hasn’t been much more than spotty showers. There is a break in the rain for now, but prepare for severe weather to ramp up as instability increases into the afternoon. Good news! This event is not expected to be widespread. The main concern with these storms is straight-line winds, but tornadoes are not outside of the realm of possibility . We are currently at a 2% probability for tornadoes and 5% probability for T-storm winds exceeding about 60 mph. Chances of hail are negligible.
A few showers are possible late this afternoon but more likely later tonight as a moistmaking system inches closer to us. Here’s the HRRR model through 6 PM tonight.
Later tonight a few showers will cruise through, nothing severe.
Jason was born in Nashville. He graduated from Franklin High School. He spent a few semesters at ETSU, where he met Ashley. He joined the Army and married Ashley and they moved to Ft. Bliss after he finished basic training. They planned a formal wedding after he returned from Afghanistan. Jason had a boxer, Charlie. He rode motorcycles, played tennis. And when his country asked him to go, he went.
Chillier Sunday than average for this time of the year. Sunny all day.
Dewpoints are still low (mid 40’s), but then absolutely nosedive around 1 PM to the mid 30’s. So dry.
Memorial Day is looking warmer, but still dry. Great day for anything outdoors.
A cold front moving across the southeast will bring AM storms and rain to our area today. The HRRR has rain directly over Williamson and Davidson counties at 9 AM. Storms and heavier rain will follow, so be prepared for not so great weather through 3 PM.
The remainder of today won’t be as warm as the early part of this week, but don’t get too comfortable… the rain from yesterday made sure to hang around just long enough to make it nice and muggy.
Rain chances increase this afternoon into the evening. A thunderstorm or two is likely as well. No severe weather is expected with these scattered storms. The main threat with this line of storms are sub-severe wind gusts, so no major scares here.
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