Threat of severe weather is low all-around for our area. Best chance east of I-65.
Latest SPC outlooks reflect the downward trend in severe probabilities. No more tornado/hail outlook, just wind (and barely)… 5% probability of damaging thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of you:
The rainy morning we’ve been seeing so far is almost done – for now.
The HRRR shows this system moving out of our area between 4 and 5pm, and we’ll have a rain-free rest of our evening.
Tomorrow we’ll get round 2. HRRR shows this second system moving in around 7am. The main line will pass before lunchtime, but more pop-ups will be around for the remainder of the day. With these popups, some may be just light drizzle, others may be strong severe thunderstorms. Instability and shear are present, so these storms have the potential to be severe, and we cannot completely rule out tornadoes.
We are warming up nicely today to the low 70s. This is right around average for this time of year. These temps teeter totter in between the upper 60s and low 70s for the first half of the work week.
If you’ve been sneezing because of the yellow stuff on your car, rain is on its way. Some of us may see some light sprinkles throughout today associated with shortwave trough. No threats with these sprinkles and no need to cancel any plans.
The weekend will closeout nice. Temps in the mid 60’s, sunshine, and no rain. Perfect day to get outside, unless you have allergies. Pollen = yikes.
Monday will be similar to today. Sunny with slightly warmer temps. The GFS model thinks we could get a shower or two tomorrow night. I wouldn’t count on it, but if it were to occur it will be brief and shouldn’t ruin any plans.
Currently some showers in West TN, slowly making their way towards us.
The Dry Air Monster is feasting on these showers. I doubt any rain this rain will make it to the ground. If it does, amount would be just enough rain to cause a nuisance, not “oh no rainout, cancel all outdoor plans” kinda rain.
Pesky spring back-and-forth temps are in full effect. We’ve gone from near-record highs to a frost advisory in just a couple days. Tomorrow morning before sunrise. Build-up of frost on plants is never good… make sure to cover yours up!
Wind gusts at Nashville International Airport peaked at 55 mph last night about 8:00 pm. Today, we retrieve trash cans, trampolines and drag tree branches out to the road for pickup (city folk) or to the brush pile (country folk).
We’re in store for an all around windy day. Wind advisory has been issued for our counties, expiring 1 AM tomorrow. Already seeing reports of 30+ mph gusts. Expect these winds to strengthen throughout the day ahead of this evening’s storms… could approach 50 mph gusts OUTSIDE of the storms!
3. TIMING. A squall line is going to come speeding through here probably early evening Wednesday night. “7-8 PM” is NWS-Nashville’s thought which seems about right to me (HRRR model agrees, below) tho that ETA could wiggle earlier or later than that, so look for an update (changes?) tonight and tomorrow.
Today we’re going to warm up a bit from yesterday, with highs in the 70s.
Tomorrow, we are going to get WINDY. Gusts up to 45mph are possible all day, even before the thunderstorms move in. Today would be a great day to make sure any furniture, outdoor decorations, and garbage cans are all secured.
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