Rain and storms are likely today but the question is when?
- The overnight models were all convinced storms would form mid/late afternoon and last into early evening.
- Latest NAM/HRRR models have the afternoon quiet with storms forming after dark.
- It makes more sense that they would form late afternoon to dark, say like around 4 PM to 8 PM. We’ll see.
Storm hazards today/tonight:
- Heavy rain in spots, with flash flooding possible; WPC has a 10% to 20% probability of flash flooding within 25 miles of you
- CG (cloud to ground) lightning
- Low probability of damaging straight line winds in a few isolated spots
- I suppose we could see some small hail but that’s also unlikely
- Not worried about tornadoes.
Rainfall should be heavy in spots but unevenly spread, like what happened yesterday thanks to @SoccerMoses:
Everyone on the interstate was winning the Wattery in that moment. Thank you Soccer Moses!
Same as Tuesday:
- Unequally distributed storms forming late afternoon and extending into the evening
- Heavy rain (10% to 20% probability of flash flooding within 25 miles of you), lightning main hazards
- Can’t rule out isolated damaging winds and small hail
- Below you see the 12z run of the HRRR laying it all out (time stamp upper left):
Glorious Summer Weekend
Rain chances end mid-day Thursday. Humidity starts to slowly drop Friday. Still going upper 80°s for temps but dewpoints will drop into the lower 60°s creating a near perfect summertime weekend.
Humidity and rain chances return next week.
Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs