2sday Feat. Two Days With Some Rain & Storms Around

Rain and storms are likely today but the question is when?

  • The overnight models were all convinced storms would form mid/late afternoon and last into early evening.
  • Latest NAM/HRRR models have the afternoon quiet with storms forming after dark.
  • It makes more sense that they would form late afternoon to dark, say like around 4 PM to 8 PM. We’ll see.

Storm hazards today/tonight:

  • Heavy rain in spots, with flash flooding possible; WPC has a 10% to 20% probability of flash flooding within 25 miles of you
  • CG (cloud to ground) lightning
  • Low probability of damaging straight line winds in a few isolated spots
  • I suppose we could see some small hail but that’s also unlikely
  • Not worried about tornadoes.

Rainfall should be heavy in spots but unevenly spread, like what happened yesterday thanks to @SoccerMoses:

Everyone on the interstate was winning the Wattery in that moment. Thank you Soccer Moses!


Same as Tuesday:

  • Unequally distributed storms forming late afternoon and extending into the evening
  • Heavy rain (10% to 20% probability of flash flooding within 25 miles of you), lightning main hazards
  • Can’t rule out isolated damaging winds and small hail
  • Below you see the 12z run of the HRRR laying it all out (time stamp upper left):

Glorious Summer Weekend

Rain chances end mid-day Thursday. Humidity starts to slowly drop Friday. Still going upper 80°s for temps but dewpoints will drop into the lower 60°s creating a near perfect summertime weekend.

Humidity and rain chances return next week.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings.

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weathe

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.