There’s uncertainty to some degree in every forecast, but there’s a little extra in tonight’s.
Models have not handled the showers/storms that are ongoing today, so it’s likely that they might not have a good grip on things later today.
Can’t Shake The Daily Rain/Storm Chances
Brief Window for Severe Weather This Afternoon, Continued Daily Rain/Storm Chances
There will be a brief window for severe weather potential this afternoon.
Specifically, there is a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds and a 2% chance of a tornado, both within 25 miles.
Scattered showers and storms will move in from the S/SW (a little different than usual), providing an opportunity for not only the needed rain but a very low-end severe weather threat.
Daily Rain/Storm Chances Thru Wednesday
Summary:
- Every day thru at least Wednesday has medium to high rain chances, although this doesn’t mean you’ll get rain everyday
- Chances will generally be highest during the afternoon/early evening
- Storms should stay below severe limits, 2-3″ of rain will be possible over the next week
Scattered showers are already ongoing (as of 11a) and will continue to do so thru this evening. The coverage of these showers/storms looks to be less than yesterday, so there is certainly hope for any outdoor events this PM, including any graduations. It’ll be close though.
No Shortage of Rain/Storm Chances Thru Tuesday
Some scattered showers have already started to move through the area and will continue to do so thru this evening.
The HRRR model paints a picture, although it might not be the picture:
Lightning will certainly be possible with any of these storms, along with some strong winds in one or two storms. When thunder roars, go indoors.
Daily Rain/Storm Chances Over The Next Week
After our recent very quiet and dry spell, we are now playing catch up, with rain chances every single day over the next week.
Today [Tuesday] has the lowest odds of us seeing rain out of the next seven.
Unsettled Pattern Begins Tuesday
We certainly have no lack of rain/storm chances this week.
However, today [Monday] will be the lone exception to that. It’ll be hot, with highs in the low 90s – so if you need to do any yard work, right now or closer to dinner will be your best bet.
Grad Party Needs A Rain Plan
TLDR: Two more summer-like days before a wetter pattern moves in late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Today and Tonight
Sunny and warm. High near 91 with a south wind 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 25. NWS-Nashville notes this is the first time many spots west of the Plateau hit the low-90s this year. Tonight stays mostly clear and mild, low around 68.
Hot then a Rain Chance
Bottom line: hot and mostly quiet through Monday across Davidson and Williamson. Our next real rain chance arrives Tuesday and lingers into Wednesday. We are not severe outlooked.
This Weekend — Summer Vibe
Today tops out near 87° under partly sunny skies, with a south-southwest wind 10 to 15 mph gusting near 25. There’s a low rain chance in the forecast, but per NWS-Nashville that activity should stay up near the Kentucky border — not really our problem.
Great Weather, But…
Easy Friday, warm Saturday, and the first 90° day of the year is probably Sunday in Davidson and Williamson. No severe weather on the table.
Today
Sunny and pleasant. Got that Friday feeling. High near 82, south wind 5 to 10 mph. Tonight goes mostly cloudy with a low around 63.
More Sunny Days
TLDR: A beautiful Thursday afternoon and a cool night, then we warm up fast into the weekend. No real rain on the table.
This afternoon and tonight
Sunny and 73 with a north wind around 10. NWS-Nashville notes low humidity and some gusts along and east of I-65 today, which brings marginal fire weather conditions through late afternoon — be careful with anything that sparks outdoors. Drought is still ongoing.
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